Vancouver Real Estate’s DOWN Is The Beginning of UP

Sand

The past couple of days were ostrich days for Vancouver Real Estate. Regardless of where you looked or which news you read, it all appeared as blowing grains of sand piling up into an overwhelming dune. From raging stock markets, crises at banks, credit crunches, politics or housing cycles it was a day that made you want to just stick your head in the sand to stop the noise.

Up

After a while it becomes difficult to assimilate diverse opinions and conclude which end is up.

Yesterday was sunshine and lollipops. My colleague came away excited by the upbeat news gathered at a session hosted by the VANEX association in which guest speaker Cameron Muir, chief economist for the British Columbia Real Estate Association espoused the glories of fundamentals. According to her, Mr. Muir claimed that all was good. Employment is steady, interest rates are down, the banks are solid, Canada and B.C. in particular will share some economic sunshine.

Maybe

In a Reuters Report, TD Securities offered a partially cloudy day prognosis. TD suggests that house prices did not fall as wildly as the Canadian Real Estate Associations 6.2 per cent reported, offering a much milder 1.3 percent. The reason rested on TD crunching numbers that took into account “compositional shifts.” “TD fixed the weight of each city to year-earlier sales levels as of September 2007.” So depending on how your calculator works the price drop MAY BE less or more. All this was to reassure us that we will not be suffering the same fate as the U.S. housing market.

Down

Helmut Pastrick is the economist for Central 1 Credit Union. Today, Harvey Enchin writer for the Vancouver Sun, referred to Patrick’s latest housing outlook.

Bleak

Enchin starts out with “residential sales expected to drop 30% this year and another 18% in 2009”. His piece continues to describe the historical ups and downs of our local market.

Long Road

The part that will cause some sleep loss is that Vancouver suffers immediate and sharp drops in housing prices, which we are experiencing at the moment, come back is a long hard road.

The Cycle

We have just enjoyed the “longest expansion on record”. According to Pastrick the AVERAGE cycle lasts 39 months. If you are buying or selling a home, here’s the gamble. Pastrick’s math tells us that the average cycle is an average of a period that extends “between 9 and 65 months.”

Your Bet

Somewhere in all of this lies the real answer. I’m not as smart as these boys. I do think that what has been accomplished is that their words and thoughts have left all us just a lot more confused. The result is that your guess is as good as theirs.

Got a minute? What’s your outlook?

How long do you think it will take before we can pull our heads out of the sand and look up?

I’m always happy to answer your Vancouver Real Estate question? Call or send me an email Twitter or Skype me at YatterMatters.

Larry

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed. **Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

October 26th, 2008 at 8:33 am

One approach is to treat these futurists as we would the sports analysts who try to guess the winner of the 2009 Stanley Cup. It’s fun but meaningless. In this day and age, Larry Yatkowsky’s opinions are as valuable as those offered by Helmut Pastrick, Harvey Enchin or any other economic soothsayer. Keep ’em coming Larry.

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