BCREA Survey – a Political Bat or Smokey Elixir?
Posted April 12th, 2009 in Real Estate, Sharing the Experience | 
BCREA Reaches Out
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), recently commissioned a survey entitled the 2009 Public Opinion and Outreach Strategy Project. The benchmarks used in the survey were:
- Real estate purchase plans and barriers to home ownership
- Awareness of programs to assist in real estate purchases
- Awareness of the Property Transfer Tax
- Measures taken to make homes more environmentally friendly
- Awareness of programs to make homes more ‘green’
Within these benchmarks, BCREA, claims that it has ‘reached out’ to check the pulse of the B.C. home buyer. This viewers’ perspective sees their effort not as a ‘reaching out’, but rather, an unworthy attempt to find political traction based on evidence lacking substance.
The electronic epistle introducing the survey, signed by all Presidents of BCREA, confers their intent. “If there has ever been a time to make your voice heard and your vote count in a provincial election, 2009 is the year.” At suspect is that they have conjured a relatively insignificant finding regarding the Property Transfer Tax into a affordable housing issue. Within the bounds of speculation, the assumption is that they propose this issue alone should be the premise upon which you, the home buying consumer, predicate your vote in the upcoming election. From a viewpoint of transparency, it doesn’t appear as much of a political bat.
Transparency
Quoting from survey’s executive summary
- “Availability of affordable properties is the key barrier in a home purchasing decision.”
- “Other major financial barriers include ability to qualify for a mortgage, adequate income, and employment security”.
- “For almost one-in-five, the Property Transfer Tax is a major financial barrier to home ownership”
- “Approximately one-half of BC resident (57% of those planning on purchasing) claim to be aware of the Property Transfer Tax.”
- “Almost half (45%) of those aware of the PTT say it is at least ‘somewhat’ important in their home buying decision.
Courtesy BCREA-Public Opinion Research Project
According to the survey, of those polled, “38% plan or hope to purchase a home.” In context of that number what does the summary tell us? Consider the statements regarding the PTT. Of the 38% planning to buy, 57% say they are aware of the tax. Of that 57%, 45% think the PTT is only “somewhat important”. Of that 45%, “almost one-in-five” think the PTT presents a purchase barrier.
Looked at with actual numbers – of 100 people, 38 want to buy a home. 21 of the 38 know about the Property Transfer Tax. Of the 21 who know, 10 think it is somewhat important. Of those 10, less than 2 consider it a barrier to buying a home.
Are you sensing that the total number of people who feel the PTT makes a difference is much ado about nothing? It would seem in the broad provincial consumer spectrum, the PTT as a determinant in the home buying decision barely appears on the radar of importance. Why, you then ask, would BCREA a provincial association, appear to hang it’s hat on this as an issue. For lack of rationale, is one to presume they are drunk with their elixir? If so, can their opinion be trusted to influence your vote?
Wrong Battle
We are left to wonder if BCREA’s ‘pulse checking’ methodology differs from others? In the past, Canadian newspapers, those equally unfettered bastions of consumer centric reporting, have dedicated pages to the issues of affordable housing. Their un-surveyed response is straightforward, they view price and jobs as the main barriers!
Addressing BCREA’s first notion of job security witness the headline from the Times colonist reporting that “Victoria can no longer boast a low unemployment rate as job losses climb” . As well, UPI reports that “Canada’s unemployment rate hits 8 percent” – 61,000 jobs lost in March. Did BCREA miss the mark? When the smoke clears it must even be clear to them that unemployment is tearing at the fabric of home affordability – a barrier wider and higher than the PTT.
Strange it is, that with these most basic reasons in support of unaffordability, the wise leaders of the BCREA persist in the suggestion that the one of the ‘real’ barriers precluding an affordable home is the PTT. To be clear, the elimination of the PTT may in itself, at a minor level, prove helpful to a small number of marginal buyers. However, within that help, is a greater financial disaster awaiting that same marginal buyer. What will happen when interest rates return to their historic levels? Will that leap cause their home to now become unaffordable?
Lights Out
Relative to the other significant barriers to ownership, BCREA’s singular goal of coddling your voting favor under the auspices that voting against the tax will make a difference in affordability, is unworthy hype. The PTT is simply, an easy and obvious target. Perhaps if BCREA were to turn the lights out they might see the glow of more worthy political persuits.
*Disclaimer: All quotations and Data from the BCREA-Public Opinion Research Project.
** BCREA Survey
***While enclosed data is believed to be accurate it is not guaranteed.
As a market researcher, I appreciate that these things get rather complicated if not presented very clearly. And given this particular report’s political motivation, clarity is clearly not a driver.
However, I think you misrepresent some of the numbers above. For instance, 45% of those aware of the PTT say it *at least* ‘somewhat’ important in their home buying decisions (13% say it’s “very” important”).
And the one-in-five statement pertains to everyone intending to buy, whether or not they know about the PTT, and, more importantly, whether or not they find it important or not. It is very possible, and actually very likely, that the percentage of respondents that report the PTT as a barrier is much higher among those people that say it plays an important part in their decision making, and will therefore most certainly be more than 2 people.
Hi Erik,
With due respect to your credentials and political motivation aside, agreed we are, that finding clarity in this survey’s results is complicated, however, at question is your interpretation more the misrepresentation?
It seems the issue of awareness is at stake. The numbers are premised first, on the number who expressed an intention to buy and second, of those who have made that affirmative expression, what percentage of that group, are actually ‘aware’ of the PTT. With that, the next question is to what degree do they believe the PTT will influence their ability to purchase.
Erik, you state that the 1 in 5 is representative of the entire group intending to buy whether or not they know about the PTT. I believe your assumption is incorrect as nothing indicates that is the case. Therein lies the crux.
Clear, is that not all of the 57% who were planning to buy were aware of the PTT. The numbers as presented imply that those surveyed first had to indicate their awareness that the PTT exists. Of the 57%, 45% said they were aware. Of that 45%, follow the varying degrees of the PTT’s effect as a barrier to their purchase.
For clarity look at the chart. 29%, is the ‘somewhat important’ subset of that 45% total. Nothing indicates that the full 45% as you indicate, said they thought the PTT was ‘somewhat important’. The remaining 13%, another subset of that same 45% total, said they felt it was a barrier.
Am I being 2 simple?