Winds of Change
Posted June 8th, 2009 in Real Estate, Sharing the Experience | 
Fickle Breeze
Are we fooling ourselves? Can price increases followed by a slower market be only weeks away? If that is a question burning for an answer, then consider, that like the safe passage of these sail boats, the rise and fall of the Vancouver real estate market is as fickle as the wind that’s blowing.
You Could Feel It
Retrospectively we can look back and conclude that the market may have hit bottom in the last weeks of 2008. From January thru the beginning of March we witnessed a slow and steady increase in activity, but nothing like the March 03 2009 zephyr created by the Bank of Canada’s never seen before low interest rate. Since that day, Vancouver Real Estate buyers have like the desert’s scirocco, warmed the market by buying everything in site – in many cases, paying more than the asking price!
New Lows
This squall has all but wiped out the inventory of Vancouver residential homes for sale on the east and west side. 4665 current listings ripple the surface in Vancouver West. In 2008 this area had 6503 listings making waves. Today, looking back we are below the 2006 level when there were 4887 listings.
For the past 60 days the strong gale of buyers have created increasing price waves as they empty the market of inventory. Sellers, have heard the roar of those waves crashing as they witness multiple offers piling up time and again.
How quick the tide has turned from being a buyers market. Last it did for a while, but the winds of fortune eventually expire. That fortune is now guided by the sellers and all to soon, that too shall soon change.
So we wait, for another storm to change the markets favor. At best as with all weather related things, we watch for signs. It may be gentle ‘cats paws’ rippling the water with the hint of a blushing wind to fill our home buying sails. Perhaps it will be high stratus clouds telling of tomorrow’s winds, or it might be cumulus clouds full of thunder and lightening. Which ever it is, we know that today the best of a good day’s sail is gone.
Where Will be The Next Wind?
Scout the horizon! Do you hear low grumbling economic rumors? Was that sound the Canadian dollar reaching new highs to render our country less competitive on world markets? Is the US not recovering as had been hoped for? Is the constant murmur, that far but near fear of inflation, hovering on the horizon? Which sign will predict the next wind? Is it one or all? Will the economic weather forecasters suggest you furl your home buying sail and head for port? Some anticipate a Bank of Canada announcement that it’s base rate will rise in the hope of stabilizing the above. Will that be enough to end the frenzy of this low interest hurricane? Not sure! A cautious sailor rarely has all his cloth up when the signs are uncertain. The current fresh breeze of low rates leaves one certainty. The next wind will be higher and time again to batten the hatches.
*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.
