What Joe Thinks of Vancouver Real Estate

Sages

Having time to reflect on complicated issues while bathing in the warmth of the sun is a pleasure. Deciding who is right and who is wrong is much more complicated? Prone we are to rely on opinions expressed by those we consider to be wise men and women. We look to them to help us find answers and understand that which lies ahead. As methodology, things haven’t changed. Throughout history we have looked for guidance from those considered sage.

Cup Full

Recently published by CTV.ca was the article entitled “Recession’s legacy to be long lasting”. It triggered much thought about the insidious nature of perception. Depending on your view you may find a cup half full.

Home Base

Such an outlook may be a result of where we live. Vancouver has always been a special kind of place – mountains on one side, ocean on the other. It’s the kind of place to which the word microcosm applies. Insular is another. You might even have your own special word to describe this we call home.

Scars

Within this report is this statement: “Canadians will be fighting to recoup what they lost during the recession for several years even after growth returns to the economy.” According to an analysis by “Dale Orr’s Economic Insight, he claims that the downturn’s scars will still be noticeable five years after growth resumes later this year, in terms of productive capacity, unemployment and living standards.” Orr notes further that, “over the recession, people lose their jobs and they lose work experience which cannot be fully recovered.”

Good – Bad Medicine

For the most part, we have a positive view of life and it’s outcome. Inherently we know as did Annie, that “the sun comes up tomorrow.” Remember when you fell and scraped your knee? The Doctor sent you on your way knowing that a band-aid will make all as good as new. The CTV report is not that kind of Doctor. The medicine this Doctor is peddling is telling you that you may not or never run as well again.

The Hinge

David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff contends that “even when the recession ends, there’s not going to be much of a recovery. It’s a post-bubble credit collapse and the transition to the next bull market and economic expansion is truly going to measured in years, not quarters.”

Many sages say that it all hinges on employment. Amongst this group is Scotia’s Derek Holt who says as “a long as employment continues downward, workers in Canada are not going to be of the mindset to go out and make big ticket purchases.” Coincidentally, recent Labor department releases support this position.

Down to the Quik

With much nail biting the question remains – what effect will this have on the Vancouver market? Without question this recession will see companies fail, jobs lost and fewer people able to afford the purchase of a home. Some will retrench to saving more, refusing to over extend themselves. A number will refuse to take on any debt, including a mortgage. Yet with all this, in concert, there are many many others who will continue to strive to create value, associated jobs and paychecks.

In the End

The net result is that while it may take longer and not be as bright as before, the sun will come out tomorrow and for all the easy to generate unhappy thoughts floating around some people who buy homes today will actually be just fine.

Joe’s Opinion

Supplanting all wisdom of the sages the best advice may rest in Joe Cocker’s view.

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

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*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

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