East Side Numbers Go Uptown
Posted October 27th, 2009 in Neighbourhood SnapShot | 
East Side 30 and 60 Days
Vancouver’s East Side Detached real estate during the current past 30 day period Sept 27 to Oct 27 2009 compared to the previous 30 day Aug 27 – Sept 27, 2009 period saw Total Listings drop from 809 to 689. Ominously significant is that sales dropped from 235 to 113 – more than 50%! Following paths carved recently within neighborhood posts the Sold Average prices acted in a contrary fashion with adjustments upward from the Aug/Sept’s price of $739,518 to the Sept/Oct’s average sold price of $769,260. Median Sold price matched this upward jump increasing from $718,000 to $756,000.
Encompassed within the 543 Active Listings 93 reduced their price while 43 increased their asking price.
Obvious
No great words can explain all of this activity – at least none you haven’t heard before. Left is the thought spoken by the Bank of Canada’s Governor, Mark Carney in his recent (Oct 22/09) report where he said that “our job is to state the obvious”. True to his words, and forgoing any superfluous adjectives to describe the Vancouver east side real estate market during this period is simple – the number of listings are down significantly and prices continue to climb.
What is left to question is finding an explanation and understanding of people’s psychology, their determination to pay prices that but a few months ago, seemed impossible? Do you know the answer? I don’t! Deferring to Carney, this author just states the obvious.
Numbers
FOR SALE
| FOR SALE |
This Month 30 Days |
Last Month 60 Days |
| Total Listings |
689 |
807 |
| Average Active Listing Price |
$802,767 |
$802,831 |
| Median Listing Price |
$758,000 |
$758,000 |
EXPIRED
| Expired Listings |
33 |
30 |
| Average Expired Price |
$798,648 |
$789,335 |
| Median Expired Price |
$728,000 |
$729,500 |
SOLD
| SOLD |
113 |
235 |
| Average Sold ASKING Price |
$762,567 |
$729,544 |
| Average Sold Price |
$769,260 |
$739,518 |
| Median Sold ASK Price |
$728,000 |
$699,800 |
| Median Sold Price |
$756,000 |
$718,000 |
HIGH/LOW
| Highest List Price |
$1,780,000 |
$1780,000 |
| Lowest List Price |
$399,900 |
$399,900
|
Outlook
Something that is obvious, is the view of the East Side through a looking glass. You can see change everywhere. This may prompt you to ask if the East Side is becoming the new West Side? Has Boundary Road become the new Ontario Street? Will Victoria Drive be the next South Granville? Is Fraser about to become the second Main street? How much difference is there between the two areas when you find that 86 out of the 537 Active Listings on the East Side have asking prices over $1,000,000. Rough figuring says that’s around 16% of active inventory and it’s growing. Not so long ago you would have been considered a nut case to suggest these prices. Today they are the norm. Time changes everything and those changes are evolving as new neighbourhoods occupied by new gentry. Neighborhoods once considered worn, are now uptown and in demand.
You can see find them in their infancy. A time tested signal is a new coffee shop. Look for and support little luncheon eateries or cozy local places offering a different dining experience. These places begin to fill in the missing gaps that a neighborhood makes. Soon indispensable, they become the fabric. The wants and wishes of the new generation of gentry invite these places to succeed.
Consider the generational change at 49th and Fraser – a former bastion of German speaking peoples. There as example, you will find Breka. A place that is possibly more busy than the Starbucks across the street. Open 24hrs a day, you can select from great great pastries and a super cup of coffee. Not your desire, then have a bowl of soup and a sandwich at any hour of the day. On site, they also make great breads. A favorite is the Honey Rye. Breka offers you more reasons to stay. After your break, you need only walk a few blocks and see what may be the smallest Catholic Church in Vancouver.
These changes are the signs but, that’s probably obvious.
*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed./>
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.
***BTW I have no interest in Breka other than I like their bread and coffee. 
My conclusion: yuppies are terrible with money.
They’ll spend $5 for a coffee. Expired listings, reduced sales, and price reductions should indicate bargains not bidding wars.
Best advice: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful” – Warren Buffett
The only way to explain the uptick is greed. The Starbucks phenomenon of packed luxury eateries is not a logical explanation.
I’m running scared from these neighbourhoods… and that’s not just from the many homeless, dilapidated buildings, and crime that still dot these “upcoming” neighbourhoods.
Chris,
Assuming Buffett is right then I should be expecting a call from you.
Homelessness is not exclusive to the east side. One of the greatest shocks to my system was while having lunch with a friend at UBC to witness ‘binners’ in the student lounge looking for lunch discarded by students. As a former student, it was disconcerting to find that the exclusive hallowed halls of learning were not impervious.
This revelation was more an eye opening spectacle than the Engineer’s annual Lady Godiva ride or seeing 4 to 5 thousand students streak across campus.
As to ‘yuppies’ and the $5 coffee. For many, that may constitute their entire non work related social interaction (entertainment) for the day.
Running scared: nah, remember most of those folks aren’t in that situation because it was their choice. They are interesting people when you take time to get to know them. Their existence in the world is time honored and certainly not exclusive to Vancouver’s east side.
I agree with Larry. Many parts of East Van have more ‘soul’ than many wealthier neighbouhoods like the Cambie/Oak corridor.
I suspect people are buying because they can afford it (just). Would you buy an over-priced asset if the financing costs were low and hoping that:
1) You can keep servicing the costs
2) No major expenses occur
3) The asset which has alrady reached nose bleed levels will keep going up.
I wouldn’t. But many would.
However our opinions matter for very little. The market is always right..isn’t it….until it suddenly and violently chnages it;s mind.
Fish,
Soul is a good word choice. Stumbling around the different parts of the city as I do, I must agree that you find different versions of it. Makes this town very interesting from that perspective.
Re the market is always right.
It is 50% of the time!
To a lot people those are great odds.
[...] drop from 758 to 712. While not as bold as the East side sales that dropped more than 50%,(see East Side Numbers go Uptown) the West side took a slight hit downward from 196 to 140! As if in tandem, Average Sold List [...]