Trick or Treat Market

West Side Detached 30 10-2009 8-39-32 PM

West Side 30 and 60 Days

Vancouver’s West Side Detached real estate during the current past 30 day period Sept 28 to Oct 28 2009 compared to the previous 30 day Aug 28 – Sept 28, 2009 period saw Total Listings take a slight drop from 758 to 712. While not as bold as the East side sales that dropped more than 50%,(see East Side Numbers go Uptown) the West side took a slight hit downward from 196 to 140! As if in tandem, Average Sold List prices did jump up from Aug/Sept’s $1,757,871 to Sept/Oct’s Average Sold List price of $1,832,385. Sept/Oct also saw the Median Sold Price increase to $1,569,000 up from Aug/Sept’s $1,542,000.

Expired listings increased by ten from Aug/Sept’s twenty-six to Sept/Oct’s thirty-six. Price reductions for Sept/Oct rang the bell at eighty-six while listing price increases rung in at forthy-three.

Wizards

In parallel with the East Side – Sales have slowed and prices have climbed yet again. Endless are the ‘why’ pontifications as bears salivate for the big bull roast. It has been said before and bares repeating as it writes on the wall. Mark Carney, Bank of Canada’s Governor, is like an omnipotent Wizard who has delivered a message for all to hear. “Be prudent in your home buying actions” and by extension, mortgage decisions. In this country, this man has the greatest power of all Wizards. His power can change interest rates. Who among us dares to challenge the words of such a Wizard?

Numbers

FOR SALE

FOR SALE

This Month 30 Days

Last Month 60 Days

Total Listings

712

758

Average Active Listing Price

$2,599,842

$2,599,842

Median Listing Price

$1,988,000

$1,988,000

EXPIRED

Expired Listings

36

26

Average Expired Price

$2,169,158

$3,086,461

Median Expired Price

$1,504,000

$2,135,000

SOLD

SOLD

140

196

Average Sold ASKING Price

$1,832,385

$1,757,871

Average Sold Price

$1,788,694

$1,714,025

Median Sold ASK Price

$1,548,900

$1,550,000

Median Sold Price

$1,569,000

$1,542,000

HIGH/LOW

Highest List Price

$22,000,000

$22,000,000

Lowest List Price

$227,000

$227,000

Seeking Certainties

Deferring to the 140 West side buyers who were certain – the ones who laid down an Average of $1.7 million dollars of ‘sureness’ one asks – is their ‘sureness’ an indicator of the market’s future. Certain we are that they paid the money but, is the paying bravado or the fear of missing the chance? If Carney’s incantation is fulfilled, then time will tell if their sureness was prudent. Proof however, will be in the making months or years after his words were spoken. For those who ponder, that’s a long time to wander around the real estate market as you attempt to find the fork in the road leading to certainty.

Hallowed Eve Outlook

Whenever a real estate market is not blatantly obvious it makes the certainty of predictions something akin to the occult. Determining that a change is in the works is often a historical perspective that is straight forward – it’s up or down. More difficult is isolating the real reasons for they are somewhat ethereal. Lacking transparency, reasons flow in and out seemingly a function of who or what it is that screams loudest in the dark. Such reasons frighten for they at times appear as apparitions as strange as the Olympic Rings. Other times they are only a distant voice in the dark that stutters with creaks and thuds eerily sounding like Carney’s plea for prudence. Events like these make the mind shudder in contemplation of the outcome.

As it is the eve of Halloween. This author will join the gathering crowd of ghouls by self-righteously claiming, (an event which in itself is frightening), to predict an answer – it is ambivalence! Certainty of this answer resides in the essence of this Hallowed Eve. The future you see, will for some home buyers, be a Trick, while for others, a Treat.

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed./>

**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Chris Taylor Says:
October 31st, 2009 at 9:12 am

Stealing a famous movie quote: “This sh*t just got real”. Maybe people will start listening now.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/easy-credit-soaring-prices-raise-new-housing-fears/article1346308/

Something promising out of that article:

“And even though he dismissed the idea of an imminent bubble, Mr. Carney still encouraged discussion of the subject. The reason: The more people talk about bubbles, the less chance they form. A key ingredient in the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was the lack of attention that was being paid to the problem as it brewed.”

Stealing another blogger’s name: a watched bubble never pops.

As much as I hope for a downturn, a long flattening out of prices is probably best.

Cheers,
Chris

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