We’ve already agreed that they’d prefer to sit in their million dollar homes and ask for handouts, so lets not make this about what they “want to do”, its about what they “should” do.

Are you going to bring a gun to every knife fight? Why buy in Mexico when California is much safer? or Australia?

Come on dude, you don’t make yourself look better by throwing every worst case out there. This is the problem with Garth Turner and the skeptics – they feed so much on the worst case that people don’t listen, and rightfully so.

“sure Mr. Smith, your bond paid 5%, but because the CAD moved up 8% relative to the AUS, you are down 3%”. If you can find someone in my business who thinks they can have that conversation and not get sued…..

Mexican bonds pay 8% too…. neither of those are hardly a “modest bond”.

And the interest is taxable while the rent is not deductible.

Don’t get me wrong, I sincerely believe David Rosenberg has it right. This market is 15-35% overvalued.

But foreign currency bonds are where pigs go to get slaughtered. Accept the a ladder of 2-5 year bonds/GIC’s at crappy rates and sit on some cash making zero waiting for rates to go up and/or prices to come off.

Might as well go to the equity markets if you are going to take more risk than that.

Who says you have to invest in Canada? :-p Look at Australia’s bonds.

There are bonds, preferred shares, … that will return 5-8% right now – even in Canada.

You cannot rent bread Larry.

Know that you are not alone in the morale dilemma. Many face this fork in the road.
Looking back over 2009, virtually every deal this year included a ‘daddy’ talk. Once voiced the decision is no longer mine. While shoulders are broad, accepted is the fact that for some life is or will be hard that is beyond one’s personal domain. In contrast, others prosper.

As for grasshoppers – I wonder? Do they dream?

I’ve said before that I face a morale dilemma – convince people what they are doing is wrong, or hope more of them do it so I can profit from their mistakes. What I’ve learned is exactly what you stated, for some owning is a dream, so no amount of my convincing is going to coax them out of that dream.

I’ve decided to join the ranks of the Developers, Realtors and Brokers to make money off their dream. While buyers are dreaming, I’m hard at work hedging my portfolio against their potential loss. They lose, I win.

Bring on the Olympic downturn, increased rental vacancies, increased unemployment, increased taxes (HST), and lets see what happens. The government is out of cards up its sleeve: interest rates bottomed out, amortizations reaching into retirement – what card is left to play to keep this house of cards from falling apart?

Remember, in my version of the story the Grasshopper dies, hopefully winter 2010.

“Larry might politely disagree” – you going soft on me?:)

The disagreement if in fact it is one, is only from the standpoint that the process is called marketing. In reference to the “monthly budget plan”, Like or leave it, the job is NOT to make the process of buying difficult.

With respect, if that were the case you and others might choose to be camp out at every condo project with a warning placard and or, giving lessons on the pitfalls of a 0 down 35 yr amortization.

For some owning is a dream, and we can agree that for some of those who buy that dream, what becomes true after a number of months or years is the nightmare of forclosure. In the end however, who are we to deny them the opportunity to live the dream and/or subsequent nightmare.