East Side Limb
Posted January 28th, 2010 in Real Estate, Statistics | 
East Side 30 & 60 Days
It might be worth going out on a limb save for having that limb cut in a short while. From the perspective of that limb something not seen in some time is a leveling of most of the elements included in the graph. We know that the Nov/Dec 2009 period was stellar. Look across the landscape of the graph to see numbers for the east side that have smoothed.
Not So Strange
Sure, you could be picky and say that the average and median sold and ask prices have dropped but really is it enough to shake that limb? Yes, you could point to the expired listings and start to rattle a bit until you realize that December is almost always the highest month during the year for listing mandates to expire.
Looking for Trouble
Certain it is, that some will conclude that this is the first crack you hear before the limb collapses. They will justify this by saying that total sales are down, average days on market are up a little and there is a healthy number of price reductions that add up to almost 20% of the 446 Active listings. Drastic right?
To and Fro
Conversely, does a 0.9% shift in Median Sold prices constitute a cataclysmic shift from December’s record market or really, is it just a normal winter breeze swaying the limb to and fro?
Numbers
FOR SALE
| FOR SALE |
30 Days |
60 Days |
| Active Listings |
446 |
446 |
EXPIRED
| Expired Listings |
88 |
28 |
| Average Expired Price |
$823,988 |
$779,703 |
| Median Expired Price |
$780,500 |
$678,500 |
SOLD
| SOLD |
72 |
99 |
| Average Sold ASKING Price |
$719,829 |
$770,867 |
| Average Sold Price |
$711,340 |
$761,989> |
| Median Sold ASK Price |
$697,000 |
$728,000 |
| Median Sold Price |
$695,000 |
$728,000 |
Tempting
The Olympic excitement is building and the event is almost upon us. Suspect is that a lot of people will or are putting their home buying plans on the back burner. No one however, really knows. With that the next period of listing and sale results will be a study.
Being human is problematic because we are always tempted to speculate on this or that however, if we are to believe Tsur Somerville, then we shouldn’t expect any dramatic change in the market in the short view.
Looking forward, we might be tempted as we wait, for the inevitable summer storms of higher interest rates and the HST. Will their winds will be sufficient to snap the limb?
Dont be so coy Larry!
Your graph shows the median sold price dropping $38K and the Average dropping a whopping $50K. I could hear the sound of breaking timber from down-town.
Inventory is marching back in too, like everywhere else.
The total listings have gone up even with a 3.5 X increase in expireds.
And BTW..
thanks for keping up with the numbers and graphs.
not looking for shattered limbs
just an indication that future appreciation
is at stand still…….
death knell for speculators…..
Fish10 -
Coy – moi? With all the hub-bub of the Olympics it’s a wonder anybody can hear anything.
Are you sure that “whopping” sound you heard aren’t the rotor blades of helicopters hauling snow to Cypress?
As for the numbers/graphs – just doin what I can – you know how it is – “ever your humble peddler”
blueskies -
you’ve been lurking?:)
Hard to say just yet. Fish10 seems to be hearing something. Methinks it may be time for a fresh box of cue-tips.
A drop from 728K to 695K is a drop of 4.4%, is it not?
Seems like a lot for 1 month.
Larry
Great post, very informative – hmmmm….this bears close watch.
Thank you for providing both the data and your thoughts.