Quarters

Vancouver Detached Qtrly 03-02-2010 10-56-09 PM

Perspective

It’s nice to have some perspective of the key elements that make up the Vancouver market. Evident in this graph is a three year history of the Average Price, Units Sold and Active Listing totals.

It’s been a bumpy downhill ride for the Active listings as they have steadily dropped from late September of 2008 – 8,729, to continue a free fall through to December of 2009 – 3,711.

Possibility and Conjecture

Perhaps it was the New Year or vague Olympic enthusiasm the kicked Active Listings up a notch to the latest figure of – 4,134. No doubt you noticed as you drove, walked or peddled your way along the streets and avenues of the city that it seems that there are many more signs to testify to this fact.

Yet, with all the listing activity the number of SOLDS took a hit in the tradition of the holidays dropping from November 09’s – 1,175 to December 09’s – 906 and then, another drop to January 2010’s – 709.

Ready,Set,Go!

At first glance you might want to think this is an unusual event and want to make a ‘big deal’ out of it to say something silly like, oh well, let’s see – “The market is crashing” – “Nothing is selling!” – “I knew it would end!”

In reality it’s nothing of the sort. Looking back, the pattern of solds for this period are ‘almost identical”.

Rear View Mirror

Consider the same period of Solds in ’04,’05,’06:

2004 2005 2006
November 1052 1252 914
December 850 867 635
January 791 674 748

Excited Tonsils

Average Prices, which as we know can be easily skewed, did reveal a degree of consistency from November 2009 to January 2010 with the following Nov.- $903,496, Dec.- $952,785 and Jan’s – $950,785. Suspect that at this junction it will be the price rise or fall that is the key to figuring out if it is time to jump up and shout.

As at the end of January, with only a couple of thousand difference from December, it would not be prudent to get your tonsils too excited.

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Data Hound Says:
February 4th, 2010 at 9:55 am

Larry,

Lovely analysis/graphs/thoughts.

But, this time it is different (we think).

What is the area you specialize in?

I can share what I’m looking for, but I warn you that I am in no hurry, as both of us are bearish. That said, we are future buyers.

February 4th, 2010 at 11:06 am

DH –

Specialize –
We all battle the element of enough time in the day. My least favorite is time wasted in a car – particulairly in traffic fending for your life as others try to get where they are going and want to get out of their cars as well. With that in mind – I try to restrict myself to the east and west side. While comfortable in other areas one has to accept one’s limitations in knowing it all and therefore by not knowing it all, provide disservice.

Is it ‘different this time’?

Waxing philosophic –

Interesting question, one that may determine your level of personal financial contentment for the balance of your life. Contended is that there are few who look back thinking they would have been happier today if only they had purchased something for a few dollars (relative) less. This is not to suggest that anyone is frivolous with their monies – on the contrary! Suggested is a balanced decision at that moment.

In the majority, a lesser price paid relative to the benefit of the immediate and on going utility really didn’t weigh in as a priority benefit. Behind this thinking is that it’s the quality (another subjective value) of life that is the factor.

If your personal character is one that can only be content because you got a “really good buy” or you bought at the “exact lowest point” in the market – impossible to determine except historically, as opposed to, aren’t I lucky that I have the financial ability to acquire this now and I am able to enjoy its subject and objective values for the short time I exist in this space and time. If those elements are not a priority, then wait you must for the “right buy” if that is what truely makes you happy.

To the point – Life is short – get on with it! I’m around and will do what I can to help when you’re ready.

1 Says:
February 4th, 2010 at 1:51 pm

those are some bullish numbers larry…look fwd to seeing the temperature of the market tonight, thank you for the dailies.

its beautiful out.

February 4th, 2010 at 3:14 pm

1 – not sure they can be defined as bullish. since they are historical they just are.

Boombust Says:
February 4th, 2010 at 5:01 pm

Well, the economy isn’t getting better anytime soon. In fact, I’d say it’ll get a whole lot worse.

There is NO way Vancouver houses will not correct substantially.

We are going to see a terrific economic whiplash that we have managed to avoid so far.

Last in, last out. Always that simple with this city and province.

February 4th, 2010 at 5:42 pm

BoomBust –

Such certainty is admirable. Assumed is that your basis is that a great number of events in the universe will have to collide. There are so many it’s impossible to say which will be the catalyst.

Data Hound Says:
February 4th, 2010 at 8:03 pm

Larry,

I know no other way to evaluate this market other than ripe (has been ripe for a looong time) for a crash.

I would be up for grabbing coffee later this spring and letting you know what we are looking for and seeing if you can help with it. That said, we are not in any hurry, so I don’t want to waste your time, we can leave it until we are closer to moving on a purchase.

thanks for the dailies, we are addicted. also to your posts.

February 4th, 2010 at 8:17 pm

DH –
Let’s hope the money you save will be enough to spring for a refill. 🙂
Look forward to the meeting.

Boombust Says:
February 4th, 2010 at 9:06 pm

“Assumed is that your basis is that a great number of events in the universe will have to collide.”

Indeed. Saw “Cosmic Collisions” at the Hayden Planetarium in NYC two summers ago.

Lived here FOREVER, Larry. Seen it before.

Boombust Says:
February 4th, 2010 at 9:12 pm

Oh, and one other thing. I don’t have to sit on the fence and play both sides like you do!

Data Hound Says:
February 4th, 2010 at 9:17 pm

haha!

we’ll, we’ll do our best Larry – we likewise look forward to it.

these are interesting times we live in.

thanks again for all of your efforts on informing interested lookey loos like us, it is appreciated.

February 4th, 2010 at 9:23 pm

Boombust –
you gotta admit, it’s an interesting fence to sit on. 🙂

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