How Hot is Hot?
Posted March 17th, 2010 in Real Estate, Real Estate Stuff | 
RBC
The Royal Bank released its March Housing Trends and Affordability report – it’s Hot!
Vancouver’s real estate market temperature is rising.
Some claim certainty that a fall is imminent. Others, say ‘hell no’, it is just going to keep on going. Adding to the fire in his report is Robert Hogue, Senior Economist with the Royal Bank.
Although uncertain, it is suspect that Hogue may have been humming this Glenn Frey classic when he wrote his report for it appears to have a similar cadence –
“The Heat is On“
The heat is on, on the street
Inside your head, on every beat
And the beat’s so loud, deep inside
The pressure’s high, just to stay alive
‘Cause the heat is on!
Courtesy Glenn Frey – The Heat is On
RBC Summation
Market
- more difficult to own a home
- affordability did not “come off the rail”
- affordability “tempered by a small decline in mortgage rates and gains in household income
- clear now that affordability is eroding – reason: uptrend in prices, reason: tight supply
- expect further brisk demand due to anticipated interest rate and tax hikes
Bubble Stoppers
- stricter mortgage qualification: higher down payments,lower upper limits
- higher interest rates
B.C. – The Heat is On
- undoing gains of ’08. ’09 reason: substantial price increases
- Vancouver – uncomfortable heat: all time highs – affordability worse than long term averages
- all have potential to squelch market rally
*Disclaimer: Paraphrased Information Courtesy Royal Bank of Canada. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
Larry,
Someone should let Dr. Know that supply is not tight.
Not in my neck of the woods anyways. And it appears to be getting less tight (ie. loose) on a daily basis.
Perhaps the sell/list in his area is running at 100% plus. Somewhere out in the twilight zone.
@1
- where is your forest?
- where is Know’s?
When cooking a frog, dropping it in boiling water will make it hop right out of the pot.. but slowly raising the temperature and the frog won’t know what killed him.
More homes are listed in Richmond the past few weeks. Looks like home listing activities are following the seasonal increase. Just waiting to see if buyers will keep up the buying pace.
@John
-frog story is a good reflection of this market
@James,
- thanks for the input James. Keep us abreast of the Richmond market.
Larry,
East/West side. If this is your area of expertise, they we will grab coffee and talk when the time is right for me. I don’t mind paying a realtor, I know what I’m looking for and if someone can help me find it (ie. you) and get me a fair deal, all is good. My use of realtors in the past were postive experiences because the ones I worked with brought something to the table. I have not worked with anyone in these areas, my experience was Island and suburbs. I would not use my suberb guy (who’s great), as I believe in regional expertise/advice. JMHO.
Anwyays, let’s see how hot the numbers are tonight. Perhaps it is hot hot hot and we’ll see a 100% plus sell/list ratio.
Somehow I’m in the rising MOI camp and can’t see much of this happening – seems to me the market peak might now be behind us, rear view mirror.
Frog is in the pot. Turn up the heat.
@1
- ‘know what you are looking for’
- are you sure it isn’t there now?
- 100% sell/list!!! whoa there Trigger! 30 years I’ve never seen that except in a bears imagination.
- “(i.e. you)” are you going sweet on me?
You’re too cryptic, Larry.
What’s the real story?
@Boombust
- really?
- Mysterious in meaning; puzzling; ambiguous
- it did say Summation! The conclusion is for you to decide! Read the RBC report in full for extended details
Here’s my take.
When da heat is on, get outta dat kitchen!
@Boombust
- nah! Standing inside the fire is where it’s at.
Larry,
100% sell/list has been common throughout the bull run. We are running mighty bearish numbers these days. In my view, anything less than a 60% average is bearish, although to varying degrees (let’s call 60% neutral).
Well, let’s see what tonight’s stats tell us about the market.
Dr. Dumb,
Yup, another bullish set of stats. MOI continues to plummet.
Not.
The post-Olympic “surge” in listings is just about done and the post-Olympics buying season is just beginning…
More bullish stats, slowly creeping up…watch tonights…
This is going to be a frenzied and fantastic buying season that will increase prices…
@meth
- your guess is as good as mine
@1
- expect mortgage pro response tomorrow
@johnnyO
- see @1 response
@Mantiger
- I don’t like your comment! It’s contains race overtones that I find demeaning and unsubstantiated. My sandbox my rules. Ergo – deleted.