Knee Bone

Moguls

The three year period from February 2007 to February 2010 resembles the knees of a mogul skier in full stride. The three years recorded here match those knee jarring ups and downs.

Active Listings

Looking at 2010, Feb. 10’s 4694 Active listings has squeezed by Feb. 07’s 4189, Feb. 08’s 4468, numbers but has not surpassed Feb. 09’s 6118.

Units Sold

The number of Solds in Feb 07 were 1127; in Feb 08, 1000; in Feb 09, a brutal 589. February 2010 recorded 984 Solds.

Average Price

Average prices were no less dramatic. Feb. 07 registered $743K. Feb.08 screamed in at $920K only to get slapped in Feb. 09 with a relatively modest $792K. February 2010 however, screamed back to settle in at $963K.

Units listed

February 07 recorded 1745 new listings. February 08 was happy at 2127 while February 09’s numbers chocked at 1620. February 2010 was almost as happy as Feb. 08 registering 1915 units listed.

Gnawing Influence

If the pattern is to repeat itself, then one might expect that we will see Solds, Units Listed and listings Active on the market to parallel the climb seen in past years. From now to through to the early summer it will be busy.

Coinciding with the full blast of HST, anticipated is that this ‘new influence’ will add a sizeable burden bringing added pressure to the market which may compound the historical post June drops. How much the HST will affect this traditional downward movement remains to be seen.

Black Sheep

The black sheep in this family of numbers is the Average Price. It remains a wild card and is unpredictable. Street rumour suggests international buyers possessing wealth most of us are unable to fathom are here, are buying and unwittingly, are changing the Vancouver Real Estate Game.

Here’s a Bone

Throwing a bone for bears to gnaw – when it is time to sell those properties who will be there to support their asking price? Will that be the siren call of a market slide?

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

1 Says:
March 5th, 2010 at 7:30 am

thanks Larry, great analysis. Lots to chew on!

I look forward to tonight’s stats, to see if the recent trend of high listings and low sales continues.

To me, it appears that MOI number is gnawing HIGHER!

And westside, lots of For Sale signs for those ultra rich to look at – two on my street alone, and there are no orange Sold stickers for a while that I see…(relative to listings surge, in any event).

Yes, you are right, things ‘look’ good right now, but under the covers and between the lines, cracks are appearing, do you not agree my little LarryBear?

Best place on meth Says:
March 5th, 2010 at 9:44 am

According to the cheerleaders, wealthy Chinese, Iranians, Norwiegans, Israelis, Easter Ilanders, Aztecs, Samoans, Romans, Leprauchans and Unicorns will keep buying here so there is nowhere to go but UP, UP UP!

So relax folks, that $900K just spent on a Knight St starter home is as safe as Nortel stock.

March 5th, 2010 at 9:48 am

@Meth –

Certain it is that we will continue to be a diverse multicultural community. Conversely, perhaps Nortel’s line up was not.:)

March 5th, 2010 at 9:50 am

@1the1-
“you are right” – ummm maybe!
Still peeking from under the covers.

John Says:
March 5th, 2010 at 11:55 am

Holy crow Larry – 286 listings and 75 solds for 03/04/10…

John Says:
March 5th, 2010 at 12:01 pm

Agent Will mentioned a potential backlog of listings in a recent tweet: “The board must be really backed up. My listing has been late going live and I’m seeing a lot of listing that were supposed to go a week ago.”

March 5th, 2010 at 12:51 pm

@ John

– coffee cup gossip says board is in overdrive = > market change

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