Old Rules
Posted March 10th, 2010 in R.E. Stories, Real Estate | 
First Date
The Daily numbers seem to be a hot topic. The conversations surrounding this sudden change in New Listings and Solds is kind of like a first date. You remember don’t you? It is like that time when you were not sure if you were having fun or you wasted $20 on cheap berry wine.
Talk Talk
A bunch of conversations took place today that added another flavor to the discussion. They left you to wonder if these daily numbers are the first signs of the market change or are they the beginning of a new Vancouver real estate reality?
Left you were to scratch your head as you tried to figure it out!
Used with permission TeamFisher.com Norm Fisher all rights reserved.Three Wise Men
Circumstance dictated visits to three west side branches of one of the big five. The manager at one branch and loans officers at the others, hovered like wasps ready to sting as they asked the question, “is anybody doing any mortgages”?
Hmmmm?
You have to admit that is a scary question. While a small sample, wonder you must as you ask – is this another indication of something that is a beginning?
Is it Just Me?
Whenever such things happen I always look to ‘flatlanders’ for consensus. They are the bastions of sensibility, the gate keepers of our country’s bread basket. Yes, you guessed it, I chatted with Norm.
Norm Fisher who you see in this picture, is a top of mark Realtor® in Saskatoon. Norm runs a good shop at TeamFisher.com and is tuned into flat land numbers like no one else. I’ve seen this picture of Norm before. The pose Norm assumed profoundly reflects our state of mind as it physically expresses that question we ask ourselves – is this it?
Not Alone
His words however, may be the seal on the deal.
In Saskatoon, “Sales are surprisingly soft given that the “old rules” pass in April. Listings are also starting to grow.” Seems similar to Vancouver’s market state. The ‘old rules’ Norm is referring to are the upcoming changes in mortgage qualification.
Scratch and Win
Perhaps we won’t be left to scratch our heads for long. Those rules may already be striking a pose via the Daily numbers of Vancouver’s market. For some, these lucky numbers could equal that first date!
davers (prior post)
you could be right
but
I’m talking to folks who have a handful of invesment properties, and just like missing selling Nortel at the peak, its amazing how the gift horse’s mouth is getting a thorough examination
my point? even a modest decline in prices could give rise to panic selling as this is a market that is BUILT ON EMOTION not fundamentals – as i’m sure you would agree with
interesting times
look forward to stats tonight.
@ 1the1-
“built on emotion”
ahh!
One of the fundamentals of real estate often dismissed and one, few can appraise. Insightfully bold that you to mention it.
Larry
emotion built this market (castles in the sky)
emotions will tear it back down, six feet under
you know that
so does davers
others will soon learn – the hard way
as it always is
and will be
we are animals, and animal spirits define us, as a species
@1 -
OR, they wonder ‘why me’?
Interesting… The new mortgage rules which many people surmised would have a minimal effect on the market are actually causing quite a stir. Imagine the buzz if Flaherty had raised minimum dp or lowered amortizations. And by buzz I mean the sound of shit hitting the fan. Thanks for the numbers, Larry.
larry should listings continue this week at their current pace, could this week be an all-time record for new and net listings?
While new listings in my area have increased over last year, sales are about even. You may recall though that the first quarter of 2009 was nothing to write home about anywhere in Canada. Sales in Saskatoon (YTD to 2/28) are currently about 14% below the five-year average which comes as a bit of a surprise to me. I fully expected the pre-rule change rush that was widely predicted in the media.
Norm- how is farmland faring?
There was a time twenty years ago when it could be had for a song.
A friend picked up some large parcels, which he leased out to local farmers and has done very well.
I foolishly declined
1
According to this, new listings hit 1800 one fine week in May/08. That was the top of the market as well. Watch for that number coming up, if we get it then things could get ugly fast (or beautiful if you think like me).
Norm
Why did you expect a rush to buy? If the new rules reduce purchasing power for high ratio mortgage borrowers, wouldn’t it make more sense that they have already figured prices will be lower later in the year?
1
Forgot the link here: http://agentwill.com/weekly-stats/
thanks Meth
that said, this looks like a pretty heavy onslaught of listings/MOI
yes, could be post/O/duringO noise, but….interesting
incredible
more bearish numbers, this is manna from heaven
Larry
East/Westside looks anemic
am i reading too much into this?
now is the time where your insightful analysis and thougths are most needed
is this the dreaded inflection point? of no return.
@ METH
Units Listed
All Areas, All Residential
Monthly Totals
April 08 7,075
May 08 7,447
June 08 6,613
July 08 6,168
*Source: BCALink.ca
The 1,800 spread appears questionable. The maximum monthly difference is 1,279 from highest to lowest over 4 months. It seems highly doubtful this occurred in a week. FYI: To my knowledge, there is no way to confirm a weekly range with REBGV stats. Casual observatioun suggests the graph you refer to is a trend line. Just sayin…
@Larry,
I’m fairly certain it’s not a 4 week average or anything like that, it appears to be strictly week to week.
Last week his spreadsheet shows 1268 new listings and that’s exactly where the line on the chart leaves off.
At the rate we’re going this week, could be 1500, no?
Well, all I can say is…I’m getting a whack of listings for the Tri-cities area on my auto-updater.
For example, SIX for SFH in Port Coquitlam just today.
Still waiting on Coquitlam and Port Moody.
@ 1
Should the Sun ramp up on this 3 day alternate universe any insight that may be offered here is moot.
Someone mentioned market is determined by influence. If so, isn’t this the time when every body gets their T4′s? Maybe, just maybe, with all the other ‘influences’ discussed in the last 10 days around the blogosphere that might be one sufficiently influential to give pause to reflect.
Of interest however, is that driving around you may have noticed a lot of renovations taking place. The question that rises is, we won’t buy because it makes more sense and is less expensive to renovate than pay the high prices? $150,000 can still buy a good reno!
@ Meth
Total REBGV system wide New Listings for the week to date 1031 = possible!
Wow… Just wow. 3 days in a row. The plot thickens.
@fish10
“Norm- how is farmland faring?”
I’m about as city as they come for a guy from Saskatchewan. My understanding is that it has increased sharply in recent years but I don’t follow it very closely. I hear that Ozzie has recently been promoting Saskatchewan farmland as the future. Perhaps it’s not too late for you.
@Meth
“wouldn’t it make more sense that they have already figured prices will be lower later in the year?”
Yes, that would make more sense but don’t you feel like you’ve been living in Backwardsville?
The past few weeks the media has really been pushing the “rush” like this Globe story.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/real-estate-set-for-rise-ahead-of-new-rules/article1471889/
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