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Posted March 15th, 2010 in Real Estate, Real Estate Stuff | 
Feel Good
In receipt of REBGV’s annual report included was this piece from Cameron Muir, BCREA’s Chief Economist.
A point of view that regurgitates things known to serve as a summary.
Things Known
“No question, the record pace of home sales during the fourth quarter is unlikely to persist through 2010. Much of the demand that pent-up under the clouds of uncertainty has likely been expended in the marketplace. In addition, mortgage interest rates are expected to start an upward trajectory before the summer is over. With home prices already at record levels, the biggest challenge in the market, post-recession, will likely be eroding affordability. Beginning in April, tighter high-ratio mortgage qualifications will also impact the purchasing power of low equity buyers. Minimum qualifications will rise from the 3-year posted fixed rate to the 5-year posted fixed rate, potentially pulling $35,000 out of the purchasing power of the average household. And in July, the HST will add a punitive cost to new home purchases over $525,000.”
Safe
“The expansion of the housing stock slowed considerably over the past year. The dramatic pullback in new home construction is just recently reversing as strong consumer demand and waning new home inventories signal a green light to home builders. However, the low level of housing starts over the past twelve months means there is little danger of an over-supply developing in 2010.”
Healing
“As we settle in to a post recession economic environment and bask in the benefits from our Olympic legacies, take comfort in knowing that during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, the Vancouver housing market suffered only a few bumps and bruises, and the healing process is now complete.”
*Courtesy REBGV Annual Report – Cameron Muir,BCREA Chief Economist
“As we settle in to a post recession economic environment”
This guy is an idiot. It’s only begun here, Bub.
BC has always been the last in and the last out of any cycle.
Duh. And real estate is only one of ‘em.
@Boombust
Don’t be so hard on Cameron Muir, he’s paid to put a positive spin on the real estate market. Like all snake-oil salesmen he needs to promote interest in his product.
His musings should be merely laughed at or completely ignored.
@meth
- About Snake Oil: – on the other hand there is a positive side to the equation, and while you may not be a fan of Mr. Muir or for that matter me as a Realtor a profession I sense, that is the bain of your existence, not everything is as dark as you might have us believe. There is always a buyer if the price is right for that buyer. Homes sell in any type of market – that can’t be ignored.
Larry,
I had a great experience with selling my place, the realtors split $20k and it was a quick sale – I got the price I wanted, and was happy with the outcome – I don’t share the resentment towards those of your craft, but do think (as in any boom) that a lot of folks made easy money, but those with staying power/skill will do well (in relative terms) in all parts of the cycle.
I am an ardent bear (based on my assessment of the fundamentals), but do absolutely value this site, your thoughts and the commentary.
Don’t take all of the bear musings personally, and know there are many like me who hope you continue to do well and who look forward to using your services when the time is right (vs. wrong). Do you take sell listings? if so, let us know.
@1
- @meth’s comment was not taken personally but, thanks for your kind thoughts. Was just trying to strike a level of balance and harmony.
- rants against the machine are good if there are viable solutions. I think @Rizo was heading toward that discussion. Shouting, ‘just because’ doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. On the other hand, if it helps and stops that person from killing somebody I can always put in ear plugs – a minor price to pay IMO. Methinks Garth has probably saved a lot of lives.
- easy money – agreed, but, quoting a contemporary, ‘you can always come into real estate and go broke – that part is easy’.
- “do you take sell listings” certainly, if the asking price makes sense in the market of the day. Otherwise it’s burns through a lot of everybody’s energy and results in nothing but angst.
The thing that struck me about the overall stats of Van home sales was the number of ‘price changes’ – do you have any info as to whether these were up or down changes in sale price.
It would be nice to see the values come down to a level of sanity.
@Merle
- the Dailies note price status changes. There is a summation of the weeks activities here and here.
-FYI most of the neighbourhood graphs include “price reductions”. While there are also price increases those have not been recorded however, now that you mention it, it is something that can be done keeping in mind that it is a manual computation and would be completed as time permits. Will see what I can do to help with that.
Larry, the stats are great…could you also include a running inventory count for east/west and rebgv?
that said, don’t go to any much additional bother, your regular analysis/graphs are….
incredible
thanks!
You are correct Larry, my comment was directly solely at the head cheerleaders, the ones who always tell people it’s a great time to buy.
The thing about a record boom like the one we’ve had the last few years is that it attracts many opportunists into the business because of the money – you know, the kind of people that are strictly in it for themselves. I personally know several that have done so and I wouldn’t trust these people as far as I can throw them.
But there are always some good ones who will continue to thrive when the boom goes bust.
Please keep up the good work, I enjoy your site, insight and balanced approach to real estate.
Vancouver Old-timer on 03.16.10 at 12:40 pm I live in the heart of the west-side, the Arbutus district, and this past week three Asian owners of houses on my little block have moved out, lock, stock and barrel, back to China. The houses are empty now, no “for sale” signs yet, but I see it as a wave of the future. The block I live on now is mainly renters or empty houses, not much of a neighbourhood. The house directly next to me had been purchased by a 40ish Caucasian couple 4 years ago for about $850,000, they put about $100,000 into it and finally threw in the towel last August and sold for just under $1M (it was an ex-grow-op). An investor group now owns the house and, after sitting empty for four months, it was finally rented out to a family with large dog for under $2,500. I don’t know what the future of real estate in this area is but it doesn’t look bullish.
@1
- help please – ‘running inventory’ of what?
- ***if that is a quote where’s it from please?***
- I’ll let this one will slide but, in future, notations like that need to be validated and accredited properly otherwise it just sounds like BS filler. Even so, I may choose to delete it as it does not appear to be your comment but rather, from someone else.
If it is a cut and paste from another blog DON’T bring it here, a link will suffice if it’s that important.
Thanks.
@meth
- we want names!
Hah, just had a call from a realtor whose open house I attended in 08. She asked if I’d bought yet, I said no. “What? You need to buy, now’s a great time to buy. Stop paying someone else’s mortgage!”
I guess sales really are slowing down…
With today’s “dailies,” it looks like the buyers are coming out in droves now eh WOW (aka Not Garth, Fish Taco, Postoblues)?
You see, I told you bears that you jinxed yourself. This Spring is going to see a fantastic sales seasons! Prices have already gone up 20% this year – at least another 10% by the end of the Spring!
@Matt
- now in my book of good Realtor® habits to adopt, that lady has fabulous follow up and should be commended. Knowing that you are a sophiticated gentleman who recognizes the ‘value’ of a service call, you of course, immediately and graciously thanked her for staying in touch.