Neighbourhood Numbers – West Side Overview

List – Sold – Average Price

Before you set out on an ocean cruise it is fundamental to know where you are coming from in order to determine where you want to go.

Historical comparison of the main elements that comprise the Vancouver West detached market is an interesting exercise in an attempt to determine the future of this neighbourhood market. The future of Vancouver’s west side real estate market is much like an ocean voyage, it is fraught with elements beyond your control.

Units Listed

In the period of January 2009 to December 2009 Units Listed went from a high of 310 units in Sept 09 to a low of 86 units in December 2009. A dramatic change of more than two thirds. This then was met by an equally dramatic climb from 102 units in January 2010 to another higher high of 370 units in March 2010.

Suggested is that in December of 2009 no one expected the number of units listed to climb beyond the previous high of 2009.

Units Sold

May 2009 witnessed the highest number of solds for the year in May. Looking back it was a period when the effect of almost zero percent mortgage interest rates took hold. The cheap money became the driver as Sold Units remained quite steady during the balance of the year excluding the traditional slower holiday period.

Active Listings

When February 2009 registered 708 Active Listings many were skeptical that we would rebound from the global financial nightmare. Sellers wondered if they would be able to sell their homes. The savior was the new cheap money that acted as a catalyst bringing buyers out in April. The result was that the inventory of Active Listings soon began to subside hitting a low of 325 units in December.

Active listings rebounded and began to accumulate early in 2010. The weeks ahead during the Olympics slowed sales. Post Olympics however, the number of units sold almost doubled.

Average Price

The constant throughout the entire period was the increasing average price. From January to March of 2010 the average price had escalated by $665,040. January 2009’s average of $1,294,341 grew to March 2010’s $1,959,381 – a whopping 51% increase in 15 months.

Plotting the Course

Planning a voyage means you must plot what you know is certain and make assumptions about the rest. We know that in this 15 month period prices in Vancouver’s West Side increased 51%. Assuming that all things remain equal and prevail, one would anticipate that within an next equivalent period of time, the average price could be projected to rise to a staggering $2,958,665.

However, there are other influences that will demand course changes. The real estate market is as temperamental as sea voyages. Sea voyages are fraught with changing elements such as temperature, precipitation, wind, wind velocity, tides, currents and current speeds that must be taken into account. Similarly, the real estate market is subject to influences of increasing mortgage interest rates, increased taxes seen on the horizon, and other less obvious elements hidden within the increased costs of living.

The voyage ahead for Vancouver’s West Side detached homes, though well planned according to fact and known assumptions, will be affected by other currently unquantifiable elements that will affect its journey. Some of these include local and international politics as well as changing global monetary issues that may play a part in shaping the journey’s success. Life jackets anyone?

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

davers Says:
April 8th, 2010 at 3:04 pm

Wow a 50% increase in a single year. One can only wonder if the houses sold in Jan 2010 were comparable to the ones sold in Jan 2009.

I would like to think no but given the price rose steadily over the year I wouldnt be shocked if a home purchased in Jan 09 could sell now for 30-50% more.

Man if that isnt a dictionary deffinition of a bubble I dont know what is.

April 8th, 2010 at 3:12 pm

@davers
at first i thought the calculator was wrong

Samsonite Says:
April 8th, 2010 at 3:45 pm

Jim Chanos was on Bloomberg today.

Thinks China’s property bubble could burst this year, or 2011. He’s no dummy.

Denninger came out this week and said Vancouver is 5x’s overvalued. We’ll see.

Westside – betcha prices are lower in 120 days.

Well, an internet friendly bet .

Best place on meth Says:
April 8th, 2010 at 4:31 pm

Must be those wealthy Russians Boob Rennie was talking about who are “parking” their money in the safe haven of Vancouver real estate.

April 8th, 2010 at 4:55 pm

@meth
did Rennie pee in your cornflakes? you sure seem to have a hate on for him or is it just anyone who thinks contrary to your view?

davers Says:
April 8th, 2010 at 8:24 pm

I can see why some bears hate rennie. Bears hate inflated prices, and rennie is the head honcho of RE pumpers, so he’s an easy target to be blamed for the high prices. It is very debatable if he has had any measurable effect on the market, but he sure likes to pat himself on the back when he is right.

April 8th, 2010 at 9:10 pm

@davers
“likes to pat himself on the back” no less I suspect than when bear’s predictions come true! 🙂

John Says:
April 8th, 2010 at 11:49 pm

You got the numbers you did because of the time period you chose. You happened to pick your start date near the bottom of the 2008-2009 price drop.
If you picked your start date to be January 2008 and your end to be January 2009 you would be convincing us that a West Side house will be priced at 450K in a year.

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.

April 9th, 2010 at 12:10 am

@JOHN
interesting! time permitting I might have to run it your way to see. hadn’t occurred to me. sorry just not that devious.

davers Says:
April 9th, 2010 at 7:44 am

@larry

” when bear’s predictions come true” ???

I had no idea you were so sure bears predictions were going to come true.

I’m sure we would all be happy if prices started to fall at a good pace, but I dont think it would be quite the same as when rennie is right.

He just seems to take credit as if somehow he was in control of things all along. Brian Lamb (torontos rennie) is even worse.

Best place on meth Says:
April 9th, 2010 at 8:47 am

Ah Larry,

You confuse scorn/mockery with hate. I do not have the inclination to hate every lying promoter out there – life is too short.

But if you’re going to post the ridiculous, unproven nonsense coming out of that mans mouth then I’m going to comment on it.

Or do you not like reading opinions that are contrary to his view?

April 9th, 2010 at 9:05 am

@meth
‘not like’ – nope that’s not it. was trying to get a better understanding of your point of view.
‘unproven’ – which may explain why i am reticent to make predictions 🙂

JEV Says:
April 9th, 2010 at 10:41 am

Come on. You know that the left side of this graph is overwieghted in lots/teardowns and the latter side is weighted to new product. Compare an orange with an orange.

April 9th, 2010 at 11:19 am

@JEV
I don’t know that at all and please don’t make presumptions.
The numbers include All Residential. Multifamily, land are not part of this graph.

JEV Says:
April 9th, 2010 at 11:50 am

by land i mean teardown where the house has little to no value.

compare an apple with an apple. a 2400 sq ft house 2 years old on w22 isnt up 50% from a similar house from 14 months ago. we all know that. so the obvious conclusion is that the constituent parts of the AVERAGE are different.

April 9th, 2010 at 12:01 pm

@JEV
problem is that there is no data that i’m currently aware of that deliniates what you seek to that detailed level. if you have it build the graph and I might publish it.

John Says:
April 9th, 2010 at 12:23 pm

Even if you compare an apple with an apple you run into problems – say, if you compare the same home sold twice in a 2 year window. It might have been extensively renovated and therefore sells for a lot more. You could have 2 different tear-downs but one is a much bigger lot. 2 similar sized lots, but one is on a noisy intersection. How can any data reasonably account for every variable?

On the topic of apples/apples, I guess I should have chosen a more unique handle, rather than assuming I was the only John that would be posting comments here. 😉

April 9th, 2010 at 1:57 pm

@JOHN
You are now officially John1 🙂

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