Shell Game – Maybe

He Said

“I don’t think, as positive as I am, that I understand how [much] the world loves Vancouver”

Safe Haven

  • “It’s a very safe place to invest, it’s a safe place to park money”
  • “Yes, we went through a nine-month downturn, but from last September, it’s been pretty amazing. If you have a house listed for $1.6 million on the westside, you just wait until Sunday and you count the offers you’re going to be presenting. That doesn’t happen anywhere else in North America.”

Distinct

  • “Two distinct real estate markets in the Lower Mainland:
  • the market in the suburbs and Fraser Valley where there is “a constant supply of products, predominantly based on local incomes,” and “the market in the city core, the one fuelled by outside sources.”

“We have China!”

  • “I don’t think we understand how much they’ll follow the entrepreneurial footsteps of Hong Kong — out of Hong Kong and into Vancouver — especially given the turmoil of America. In America, everybody is nervous.”
  • “If you look at the market of downtown Vancouver, the west side markets, and markets with constrained land supply and constrained inventory — that’s where outside eyes [are focused], whether it’s China, whether it’s Korea, whether it’s Europe”

Russia

“I don’t think until six months before the Olympics we really saw Russian money here. It’s coming.”

Why?

  • “it’s like waterfront: it’s an eroding market”
  • “We’re just not going to see a lot more of it.”

* Adapted – © Copyright Barbara Gunn, The Vancouver Sun

That’s What He Said

He is Bob Rennie.

Is There a Pea Under Your Thimble?

Is Mr. Rennie’s opinion a lucky pea and the winner in the shell game of Vancouver Real Estate market of opinion?

Finding balance and harmony means finding alternate perspective. With due respect, do you think Mr. Rennie is right?

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Not much of a name... Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 3:30 pm

Right or wrong, he’s made his money. Isn’t that what counts?

April 7th, 2010 at 3:34 pm

@fishguy
maybe! but if he is right, is there opportunity for others to feed from the well of real estate goodness?

asalvari Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 3:53 pm

larry

you had me laughed really hard on the Russian money cumming to vancouver… they are not going to come anytime soon here. LOL

April 7th, 2010 at 4:01 pm

@asalvari
the applause goes to Mr. Rennie. 🙂

Boombust Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 4:03 pm

He’s a promoter and he is obviously good at what he does. It certainly doesn’t make it all true, though.

Not much of a name... Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 4:15 pm

Larry…if he is right, there will be opportunities for others to feed. But that, IMO, will definitely come at the expense of the “weak”. It will surely be survival of the fittest if RE continues to appreciate.

April 7th, 2010 at 4:28 pm

@Not Much
‘expense of the weak’ – I sense a new paradigm. 🙁

@BoomBust
“all true” – exactly! It’s the real pea we are all looking for.
As to Mr. Rennie’s abilities – it can’t be denied that he’s earned his stripes.

Filipe Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 4:40 pm

Will see how his statements hold up when intrest rates rise up a mear %2 and new mortgage rules come into effect.

I do give him one thing hes the king of spin.

The last downturn you couldnt’ find him for a statement. Once it turned he was front and center again.

JEV Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 5:54 pm

Rennie is old school Vancouver stock exchange. When he is selling out the back door he’ll be pumping like mad at the front door.

Best place on meth Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 6:06 pm

Rennie is the ultimate sleazy snake-oil salesman.

He’s like the Murray Pezim of real estate.

Something about this town that makes shysters thrive, maybe it’s the air.

April 7th, 2010 at 6:09 pm

@meth
that was constructive!

vomitingdog Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 6:19 pm

I’m hearing a lot of slavic voices on the seawall. Weeks after they should’ve gone home post-Olympics too.

How are Millenium Water sales going, by the way? Any word?

beard of bees Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 7:22 pm
April 7th, 2010 at 7:30 pm

@beard of Bees
yes it is.

fish10 Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 8:06 pm

Larry few things:

1) it is all about China. When they pop we will drop.

2) you sounded like a bull on that CBC clip, BTW I would have been standing on the first step too, if I was being interviewed by such a tall reporter. 🙂

3) the mortgage broker forgot the income from potato patch in the garden, the ‘grow-op’ in the garage and the ESL students stapled to the rafters.

Best place on meth Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 8:13 pm

Larry,

Just saw you on CBC National.

Was that the most exciting 5.3 seconds of your life, or what?

I would have imagined you with a much deeper voice for some reason.

paulb Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 8:20 pm

Larry hmmmm I dunno about that interview.

April 7th, 2010 at 8:22 pm

@fish,
20 mins for 5 secs. Yes that guy is tall. 6’7″. Had I stood toe to toe I would have been looking at his belly button, not terribly exciting I think. 🙂
Re new Canadian friends. There is a degree of truth to that.

@meth
Nope, the most exciting 5.3 seconds is when you made your first comment here.
As for the deeper voice. What! You missed me when I sang soprano at the Met? 🙂

April 7th, 2010 at 8:23 pm

@paulb
happy to send him your way the next time.

Pierre Laplace Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 11:05 pm

What I don’t understand is why are those expensive restaurants downtown filled with customers? Having some exposure to certain markets (art, collectibles), I can say there is definately Russian money coming this way.

davers Says:
April 7th, 2010 at 11:54 pm

lol gotta love the CBC inverview. They pick the tiny chunk they like and run it. I’m sure you said more insightful things on the market, but that was far too complicated for the average viewer. 🙂

As for Rennie, he’s a bit of a crock. He made his cash thus far, and I dont hate him for it. I hate his seeming unwillingness to admit in any degree that the market may be overpriced.

He basically says “workers live in the valley, investors live in the city”. Basically a total lie. I am sure investors from china aim more for Vancouver proper, but still make up a very small percentage of the population of the place. (well technically 0% if they are investors in china, but you know what I mean)

Gotta love this gem

” In America, everybody is nervous.”

So that makes america a bad place to invest?

Isnt a general rule of investing “Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy”?

RavingBull Says:
April 8th, 2010 at 4:54 am

15,000….at this level, the volume of For Sale signs out and about starts to become noticible to the average rube.

When REBGV spin factory announces that April listings are at a 12 month high, that should get the wheels spinning a bit more. Where is the Post Owelympics demand? Not here.

By the end of May the news will be out about how much listings have grown year over year….by fall, I’m betting we are at a DOUBLE prior year listing count. And this market falls over, perhaps dropping 30% from current levels by this time next year.

From there, another 10-15% lower over the following year.

Then flat for a few years and probably a decade or more to get back to current pricing. Likely longer.

Ooooh, ya, its coming, and no one is bullish anymore. Just a few dummies to get in under the wire by the 19th, and a few more rushing to ‘beat the hst’,but fewer and fewer in number.

Sure, we’ll see some strong sales stats over the next two weeks, but who cares. Its over.

John Says:
April 8th, 2010 at 3:26 pm

Larry – I see you’ve gone from humble peddler to national TV celebrity 😉

Yes we are definitely seeing a lot of people from Mainland China cashing in their winnings from the Chinese stock market and plopping them into Vancouver real estate. There are definitely a lot more mainlanders here than say, 5 years ago. Will there be enough of them to save the market when interest rates rise even higher? These people come with cash and don’t care about mortgages/interest rates. While I don’t think they’ll save us from a correction, I see them preventing the market from sliding too far downward. That is – until the Chinese stock market crashes and the money stops flowing, then all bets are off.

I’ve spoken to a couple friends who now do business in China, and what they say IS pretty shocking. Regular folk who have no investment knowledge, dump all their life savings into the stock market and become quick millionaires. New millionaires spending like there’s no tomorrow, and businesses are opening up left and right to capitalize on them.

As for Russian money – I haven’t really seen any indication that it’s here or it’s coming.

April 8th, 2010 at 3:33 pm

@John
excellent information – thanks
as for humble peddler – CBC is on cutbacks 🙂

MH Says:
April 8th, 2010 at 4:38 pm

RavingBull,

You sound so confident! Just as confident as all bears 5 years ago! Sad

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