Cracks
Posted May 28th, 2010 in Neighbourhood SnapShot, West Vancouver | 
Hill Slide
It’s four days till the end of the month. In the next four days the overall market in West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver East and Vancouver West will be reviewed.
Starting with West Vancouver. It’s neighbourhood Snapshot of the last 60 days resembles a landslide. The view from the top of the hill is one of a steep decline.
West Vancouver Detached
For the period covering March 27 to May 27, West Vancouver Detached detached homes experienced the following market activity.
Listings
Listings dipped from 708 in March/April to 631 in April/May.
Sales
Sales dropped by more than half from 100 in March/April to 42 in April/May.
Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market
- March/April saw 39 listing mandates expire slowing to 20 in April/May.
- Price reductions in March/April were 6 and were the same in April/May.
- There were 7 price increases in February/March and 6 during the March/April period.
- It took 42 days in March/April to sell a home, slowing to April/May’s 41.
Average and Median List Price/Sold Price
Average List price
- March/April – $2,078,587
- April/May – $2,014,520
Median List price
- March/April – $1,598,500
- April/May – $1,518,000
Average Sold price
- March/April – $1,963,640
- April/May – $1,926,920
Median Sold price
- March/April – $1,547,500
- April/May – $1,487,500
Thoughts
Notable is the substantial drop in sales. Should this level of sales continue in the weeks ahead while the number of listings hold, then expect to see the average and median prices begin a dramatic downward fall.
Why now, Larry?
Why is the boom FINALLY winding down? Any precipitating events you can think of to account for the increase in listings?
i am surprised by the drop in listings…i predict that this trend will reverse. sharply.
Boombust/Samsonite. Have you both been living in a cave? Vancouver has some of if not the least affordable housing in the world relative to local incomes. Bank of Canada interest rate about to rise in the next month or two. Maybe your smokin too much of BC’s #1 cash crop like everyone else in the real estate industry.
The more interesting point from these observations is that this micro-trend still points at, by fundamental measures, very high prices. This is still sustained.
I guess what I want to know is if there are market participants that realistically expect that a SFH home, say in North Vancouver, would come back to where prices were say in 2001?! 2004? 2006? 2008?
Larry, listings are indeed dropping along with sales dropping, I predict a flat to very slightly downwards market.
@Bob Lucas
FYI – Will it go back?
Detached/Average/REBGV
May 2001 – 372,700
May 2004 – 530,300
May 2006 – 716,200
May 2008 – 831,171
@Fred
‘smokin too much .. like everyone else in the real estate industry’ – really! Terribly presumptuous on your part.
@MH,
pretty good call for now.
West Vancovuer typically shows more variance than other areas due to its property stratification and relatively small size. I think the market is softening but I wouldn’t read too much into these data as an indication of overall market health.
@Jesse-
exactly!