Fraser SnapShot

Fraser

A Snapshot of the local Fraser detached home market may be an example of what we can generally expect of the Vancouver real estate market in the months ahead.

In the period April 15, 2010 to June 14, 2010 detached properties in the Fraser neighbourhood had the following results.

Listings

Total Listings declined from April/May’s 79 to May/June’s 69.

Sales

Sales decreased by almost half from April/May’s 14 to 8 in May/June.

Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market

  • April/May had 6 listing mandates expire reducing to 1 in May/June.
  • Price reductions in April/May were 15 decreasing to 13 in May/June.
  • There were no price increases in either period.
  • It took an average of 12 days to sell a home in April/May and 17 in May/June.

Average and Median Prices

47th and Knight 1966 – CVA 780-381

  • Total Listings Average Ask price in April/May was $799,000. In May/June it was $831,778.
  • Total Listings Median Ask price in April/May was $799,000 dropping to $789,000 in May/June.
  • April/May’s Average Ask price of Sold Listings was $761,985 increasing to May/June’s $783,625.
  • The Median Ask price of Sold Listings in April/May was $718,500 which then dropped to $699,000 in May/June.
  • The Average Sold price in the April/May was $778,607. In May/June this increased to $789,112.
  • The Median Sold price in April/May was $728,000. In May/June this decreased to $693,500.

Bag with a Hole

The Fraser neighourhood in this past 60 day period appears to be holding ground though there is a average and median price hole that formed in the last 30 days which is slowly letting the air out of this neighbourhood market.

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Not much of a name... Says:
June 21st, 2010 at 10:00 am

I stil don’t know how any analysis on a specific market can be done with this low number of sales. Just like Marpole, with it’s six sales, the numbers are insignificant. With no allowance for differences in the types of sales, the average and median numbers really don’t mean anything.

June 21st, 2010 at 11:03 am

@not much
detached is a subset – within that set average and median numbers bear relavance to house prices within the period concerned. Granted that the number of sales recorded is not large but that is the essence of a specific neighbourhood report.

I may be off base but remain certain that for those who are buying or selling many would not consider average and median condo prices as being a reflection of house prices in the neighbourhood. It’s an apple and orange dilemma.

I agree that overall, if you were looking for a trend within that neighbourhood then combining all sales of that market subset is important. From my perspective because I get to see all the neighbourhoods even though I don’t report on them, I am of the opinion that when combined with daily conversations and other RE tidbits one gets a sense of a specific and general market’s direction. Looked at another way, it takes 100 pennies to total a dollar.

Not much of a name... Says:
June 21st, 2010 at 2:01 pm

I understand that this is a subset of the overall numbers. It is still redundant to make any analysis based on that limited number of sales, which you are doing. How did those 8 sales compare to the 14 sales from the previous period? Were the houses on larger/smaller lots? Newer/older homes? Larger/smaller homes? You need to take a little deeper look at what sold with that small of a sample. Otherwise,it’s meaningless, really.

I would bet that the vast majority of buyers don’t look at any sales figures, just what will it cost me every month.

June 21st, 2010 at 2:47 pm

@not much
Choice of parameters – all important they are. A detailed appraisal is what you are talking about and that’ll cost you. While possible, specific appraisals of properties is not the purpose here.
I can’t speak to the vast majority but certainly those I work with are well informed of what has sold. How else would they know what is a reasonable and fair amount to offer?

Not much of a name... Says:
June 21st, 2010 at 5:08 pm

So what is the purpose? To make market analysis from a sample size of 8. Perfect. You’re the one that is using the average and median sales figures to extrapolate some sort of guage of where this micro market is going.

June 21st, 2010 at 5:30 pm

@not much
Yes I am! It is one heart beat of the over all market. From my perspective, when combined with other neighbourhoods it determines a pulse. You got something better?

Boombust Says:
June 21st, 2010 at 7:34 pm

“You got something better?”

You tell ’em, Lar.

Boombust Says:
June 21st, 2010 at 7:35 pm

“Not much of a name… Says:”

Not much of a brain, either.

Anon Says:
June 21st, 2010 at 11:41 pm

Boombust, Not much of a Name is correct.

8 sales isn’t a big enough subset to form a statistically valid extrapolation of the market as a whole.

It doesn’t matter whether or not he “has anything better”, or whether you use meaningless words like “pulse”.

Larry deliberately chose to post these figures despite the fact that he has ALL the stats at his disposal, which to me suggests cherry-picking.

June 22nd, 2010 at 11:07 am

@Anon

Nobody said he (Not much) wasn’t right. Using your words “If it doesn’t matter”, then what is your problem?.
The numbers are what they are. You cannot expect to see large numbers in a specific neighbourhood.

If you are taking exception to ‘my extrapolation’ which seems to be the thorn in your butt , then what you are missing is that I get to see and post a number of neighbourhoods. It is from that overall view of the numbers and other influences that you are not privy too that I make my ‘extrapolation’. Not happy with that – here’s a quarter.

As to the cherry picking – bite me! I have posted about this neighbourhood for a year or more.

To bring this to an end you got to know that I don’t get too excited about anonymous commentors who feel they have some preordained right to tear a strip off me. See the About page. When you have the balls to stand up and be counted have at it. In lieu, go visit Garth’s blog – he’ll love you more.

specialfx3000 Says:
June 22nd, 2010 at 12:49 pm

Can’t believe I’m defending a realtor but it is obvious that Larry is reporting a specific neighborhood.

So what if the sample size is small… it is what it is. Not like only the 2 highest/lowest sales are being reported to represent the neighborhood.

Small sample size as it may be, it is still interesting to see the trend for each neighborhood.

If you don’t like this data, go to other boards that hilight larger regions as a whole.

ManfredSteyn Says:
June 22nd, 2010 at 1:25 pm

Not much of a Name/”Anon”:

Your negative comments really aren’t welcome here. The rest of us appreciate the time and effort Larry takes to update us on a regular basis.

Not much of a name... Says:
June 22nd, 2010 at 1:56 pm

Larry, why so touchy?

I think having people question your analysis is fair game. I merely believe that the sample size is too small to garner any sort of valid direction of the market based on what you have posted. The low number of sales allows for too many variables to skew the numbers. The sales mix can easily change from month to month which will impact your average/median sales figures. Like your graphs show, average price is up while median price is down.

I’ll leave it at that. I can agree to disagree.

June 22nd, 2010 at 2:28 pm

@specialfx
consider your defence a new low 🙂

John1 Says:
June 22nd, 2010 at 2:31 pm

We can argue statistics ’til the cows come home but the fact of the matter is, the vast majority of those 79 listings from 2 months ago are still on the market. Maybe they need to sell, maybe they don’t. But I’m sure the ones that need to sell soon aren’t getting a lot of sleep at night.

June 22nd, 2010 at 2:32 pm

@Manfred
thanks – but it comes with the territory. the alternate choice is to delete the comment but where is the fun in that?

I try to stand by the mission of YatterMatters being a place where everybody knows something but not everybody knows everything. That also includes me. Hopefully we all learn.

June 22nd, 2010 at 2:42 pm

@John1
yup old news numbers do make for discussion. If Realtor® conversations are true you may see a great number of these coming off the market in the next short while. It’s possible that a lot of promises were made and dreams imagined in March and April that will not come to fruition.

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