Plotting a Course
Posted June 2nd, 2010 in Real Estate, Statistics | 
Charting a Course
An old rule of sailing is that you never know where you are going to end up unless you know where you are coming from.
Charting a course in Vancouver real estate is difficult at the best of times as there are many elements to consider. Plotting the past months detached home activity includes the number of units that were listed, the number that sold, and the current inventory of active listings. Add to this the average price and a course outline begins that hopefully will take us to safe harbour.
REBGV Detached Units Listed
Beginning a system wide plot line in January of 2010 the number of detached units listed stood at 1952. In February the listed units declined to 1,822 only to skyrocket to 3,183 in March and finally settling at 2,950 in May.
REBGV Detached Active Listings
The plot line for Detached Active listings differed slightly. In January there were 4,134 active listings. This climbed steadily to May’s high of 7,368. It was a month where you might have sometimes not recognized the route home for the ever changing landscape of For Sale signs that kept popping up.
REBGV Detached Units Sold
Detached Homes that sold in May seemed to be golden. April was a busy month with 1,372 units selling which then dropped in May to 1,243. The truly golden month of unit sales was June 09 which recorded 1,677 .
REBGV Detached Average Price
Many have been speculating when and if this event would occur. They don’t have to wait any longer for in May the average price hit some hidden rocks and sunk from previous all time record highs down to $955,348.
Thoughts
In isolation the numbers for each element leave you to wonder at the direction this market will take. However, looking back over the past two years the meanderings of the highs and lows in the Vancouver market does at first, not appear unusual.
Certain elements such as the number of active listings have been much higher as seen in September 2008 – 8,729.
The number of units listed in May of 2010 – 2,950 while high, have not reached the level seen in May 2008 when they reached 3,222.
Detached Average prices has been riding a wave over the $900,000 level since October 2009.
What is at odds is number of units sold relative to the active inventory. You could say that it is off course. Suspect is that major adjustments are necessary if the market is to reach safe harbour.
Here’s a few months of plotting for your comparisons. Do you think Vancouver real estate will reach home port?
Date |
Units Listed |
Units Sold |
Active Listings |
Average Price |
| Oct 09 | 1828 | 1493 | 5187 | 913938 |
| Nov 09 | 1298 | 1175 | 4621 | 903496 |
| Dec 09 | 793 | 906 | 3711 | 952927 |
| Jan 10 | 1952 | 709 | 4134 | 950785 |
| Feb 10 | 1915 | 984 | 4694 | 963191 |
| Mar 10 | 1822 | 1344 | 5501 | 1002020 |
| Apr 10 | 3183 | 1372 | 6587 | 1003884 |
| May 10 | 2950 | 1243 | 7368 | 955348 |
