Roller Coaster
Posted June 3rd, 2010 in Neighbourhood SnapShot, Vancouver East Side | 
Travels
Yesterday we cruised around and found the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s system numbers for detached listings, solds, active listings and average price. While generally informative, little specific neighbourhood relevance is given.
Bringing individual market performance home requires a closer look at each sub-market. Thus we find that on the east side of Vancouver there is market path similar but with some differences.
East Side Detached Units Listed
If the listed units had tracks pinned to the columns one could imagine a roller coaster. Beginning with May 2008′s 441 listed units we see the track dip during the next months to Dec’s 72 units. Climbing out of that hole it reaches 337 in Sept 2009, waffles in Dec with 123, then reaches the stars in Apr 2010 at 408. Now in May of 2010 it reverses settling at 385.
East Side Detached Active Listings
The roller coaster of Active listings provides an equally exciting ride. In Sept 2008 the Active listing track touched the sky at 1080. From there it shot down to January 2010′s 415 but quickly reversed it direction in the next 5 months ending up at May’s 798.
East Side Detached Units Sold
Sales are the measure of a market. East side detached home sales certainly provide a wicked ride. It was brutal in Jan 2009 when only 42 east side detached homes sold. Like the active listings that was quickly reversed as sales climbed to 239 in Sept 2009. Since then however, the coaster ride has been bumpy as it bounced brom 121 to 174 and back. After those jarring moments May recorded 173 solds.
East Side Detached Average Price
Average Prices peaked in Mar 2010 at $802,364. Since then it has been sputtering prior to the overall market at $777,786 in April ending at May’s $778,519. Expected is that average prices will over the traditional slow summer soon move down from this level as sales begin to move to lower volumes.
Thoughts
Worrisome is the high level of active listings relative to sales. Glancing at the graph it is plainly evident that when that occurs one can expect the market to hit a bump in the road. Sales will fall until the number of listings and prices drop. Speculation is that this necessary change is about to begin.
Add to this global financial concerns, slowing rising interest rates, high prices and a lot of people who haven’t had a raise in a while suggests to this author that this market cannot be sustained.
In the weeks ahead watch for an increasing number of price reductions and expired listings. In this market sellers need to be bold and strike while the iron is hot.
Be Bold, Be First
It’s a great time to be first at something. If you are selling, look carefully at making the decision to quickly lower your price in order to get ahead of the price reduction train. The train will follow you and you will, with your home now sold, be ready to bargain for the other home you desire. Watch and wait at the station but, not too long. Those who took too long to take action are now behind the train and they most likely will be selling for far less.
Hey Larry, interesting post. Have you seen the video of Vancouver house prices from the last 35 years as a rollercoaster?
Http://vancouvercondo.info/coaster
That early eighties drop is huge, do you think we’ll see a drop of that magnitude?
@Jim
Wow! Thanks for pointing that out. Went over and had a peek! Congrats to VCI!!!! Nice work and very slick! A much better representation and much prettier. It would be nice if I was sufficiently clever to play with stuff like that.
To be clear, I don’t agree with some of the message, in particular the last few seconds. In “roller coaster” jargon it’s ‘over the top’!
Larry, you’re wrong, and wrong, if you don’t agree with VCI. Because bears know it all: there will be a crash, a big one, 50 %, that will take west Vancouver from $2m to $1m; then 2nd crash will come in, 50% again, it will take that $1m down to $500K. … Is it still not affordable for us, isn’t it, Larry? LOL. So, one more crash is needed, $500K x 50% = $250K. That’s it, that will do it.
Larry, three major crashes, 50% each,is a must, to make this City (west) livable. Don’t forget it. Three. Larry.
By the way, where is your yesterday Yattermatters #, huh?
@bearknowitall
*laughing*
the only response to all of the math is a glib response – I thought I was wrong once but I was mistaken and you just reconfirmed my belief.
re #’s Between CBC and business I had a moment! :>(
They’ll be up today.