Count Down – Day Six

Day 6 – Vancouver West

This is the last day of July. It is also the sixth and last installment of the Vancouver real estate market series of posts where we seek to gain a sense of the local market segment prior to month end accounting.

Each day the series has traveled around Vancouver to explore the major areas including West Vancouver, Burnaby combined with its North,South,and East subareas, North Vancouver, Vancouver East and Vancouver West. Our exploration centers on detached homes and their market performance during the following 30 day periods – May 25 to June 25 and June 25 to July 25.

Today we visit Vancouver West.

In the two periods May 25, 2010 to June 25, 2010 and June 25, 2010 to July 25, 2010, detached properties in the Vancouver West neighbourhoods had the following results.

Listings

Total Listings decreased units from May/June’s 932 to June/July’s 886.

Sales

Sales decreased from May/June’s 153 to 62 in June/July.

Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market

  • May/June had 40 listing mandates expire which increased to 85 in June/July.
  • Price reductions in May/June were 233 slowing to 230 in June/July.
  • There were 36 price increases in May/June and 30 in June/July.
  • It took an average of 29 days to sell a home in May/June increasing to 36 in June/July.

Average and Median Prices

  • May/June’s Average Ask price was $2,044,456 dropping to $1,766,412 in June/July.
  • The Median Ask price in May/June was $1,658,000 dropped to $1,498,500 in June/July.
  • The Average Sold price in the May/June was $1,939,397. In June/July this decreased to $1,701,900.
  • The Median Sold price in May/June was $1,620,000 dropping in June/July to $1,480,000.

Last Look

6 Days, six market areas. The predominant factor is the slow drop in the number of listings combined with continuing price reductions. Prices appear to be dropping steadily and the number of listing mandates that are failing to sell are increasing. How many ‘failed to sell’ listings will we see in the weeks ahead – the numbers are climbing? How many come back to market to ‘try again’?

A great number of sellers still want to sell but buyers are reticent to jump in – they remain uncertain except for one thing – just are not ready to pay the prices sellers are asking. What is known is that the stronger hand being played by buyers is currently winning. Until sales begin to increase we can expect this state of market to continue. In the days and weeks ahead is that sellers will be forced to make further and substantial price adjustments before that happens.

Now it’s your turn to have your say. To the silent readers it’s time to speak up.

With this last look comes the time for you to formulate your opinion. Where is the Vancouver market headed? It’s now your chance to draw your conclusions before tomorrow’s month end numbers are calculated. What will they tell us. Place your bets and see if you are right.

Day 1 starts tomorrow!

Photo Credit

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

specialfx3000 Says:
July 31st, 2010 at 8:51 am

The graph is quite telling. 14+ MOI with a 4:1 ratio of price reduction to sales.

Obviously those reductions are not sufficient. Keep them coming.

Best place on meth Says:
July 31st, 2010 at 9:04 am

Thanks Larry,

You just put the biggest smile on my face with those numbers.

July 31st, 2010 at 12:25 pm

@captain
sorry Jack that boy is all about selling his books and lessons on eating squirrels – I’m not a fan.

Captain Jack Says:
July 31st, 2010 at 1:20 pm

You’re not a fan because he talks reality. Not like most land pimps that lie through their teeth. Let your readers read his blog and then we wll see how much better RE prices get corrected to the downside. RE agents have a conflict of interest unfortunately.

asalvari Says:
July 31st, 2010 at 2:00 pm

Thank you Larry for the update..

These are shocking numbers, and since the area dataset is bigger they are much better then single neighborhood cases. It looks to me that we have moved -10% downward in one month, (but lets see if the next month gets a bounce back).

After all, it seems that we would approach march 2009 prices very fast. I always said that this city is “easy come easy go“ mentality..

July 31st, 2010 at 2:46 pm

@jack
Sorry Jack – eating squirrels is not a reality readers here are prepared to buy into. If there is a conflict of interest here on this blog why do you bother visiting?

jesse Says:
July 31st, 2010 at 4:35 pm

Just for clarification, the 886 listings is for detached properties only?

July 31st, 2010 at 4:43 pm

@jesse
for that period it’s a ‘yup’ – so says the computer

Jim Says:
August 1st, 2010 at 7:36 am

Excellent stats. Excellent blog. Thanks Larry.
Listings,prices,sales and general enthusiasm for all things real estate appears to have waned in the last 3 months. Likely due to a perfect storm of: post Olympic hangover, beautiful and distracting hot summer weather, a fear of rising interest rates, a sense that prices are falling so “why buy now?”, a sense of “I can’t sell my house for top dollar,so why sell now?” ,and all the negatice media hype.
I predict a reversal of all this negativity after Labour day long week-end,lasting a few weeks, and then dead quiet through the winter. Next spring a lot of pent up demand will drive the market…sales but not prices will recover . And then its all about interest rate direction for the years to come. IMHO

jesse Says:
August 1st, 2010 at 7:53 am

Thanks for all your efforts, Larry. From all the neighbourhoods you have shown, I am seeing astonishingly weak months of inventory numbers, averaging 13.6 for the 6 neighbourhoods you recently covered. Overall MOI for the region, all property types, should be coming in around 7-8. That means any or all of:

1) other areas in GVREB are doing very well
2) other property types are doing very well
3) there is an error in these reported data (no fault implied of you Larry of course)

In any case, if that level of imbalance holds up, I would encourage detached sellers in the areas you covered to price extremely aggressively and hire a good Realtor to do it if you need help. But what do I know!

David Says:
August 1st, 2010 at 8:53 am

Eating squirrels? What the f…

Anyhow, from my view avg prices at 9 to 10 times avg incomes would indicate that something has got to give. How long will individuals continue to live in fantasy fairy land. The willingness to mortgage your entire life away will hit a wall.

D.

August 1st, 2010 at 9:01 am

@david
re: squirrels – that’s what he said

Don Says:
August 1st, 2010 at 1:49 pm

How come real estate prices keep falling? I bought a house from one of you and the real estate association lied, the jig is up, the smart know the bubble is about to implode, you obviously don’t know much about economics, I am starting to tell my friends etc to stay away from your type.

August 1st, 2010 at 2:26 pm

@Don
Never claimed I knew anything about economics, but I’m sure you do. Afterall, you bought a house last year. Be sure to tell your friends that too!

Seen this in the US Says:
August 1st, 2010 at 4:47 pm

From Canadian perspective anyone who buys a house now is going to suffer later. The affordability index of housing in Canada is through the roof; it is currently cheaper to rent than buy.

Add to this that Canada is in the middle of the deepest recession since the great depression; Canadians are not receiving cost of living salary increases; Canadians are carrying record debt loads; increase in the perceived value of the Canadian dollar is damaging our manufacturing and commodities exporting businesses; our largest trading partner to the south is heaving its financial guts out and is no longer buying our exports due to the increase in the Loonie, which means higher unemployment in Canada; the Euro Zone is starting its own credit crisis; the unwinding of the baby boomers assets has begun, of which housing is the largest asset; the increase of value added taxes (HST) and the beginning of the increases to the mortgage rates, which will continue into next year.

All this points to the making of a depressed / buyer’s real estate market. Housing will be coming down in price within the next two years; real estate pundits say somewhere between 17% (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) and 35% (David Rosenberg). As to the rich Asians buying in Canada, there is no data to support that argument and it is only presented by realtors to pressure Canadians into buying. Canadian’s can’t trust CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association) for an honest view of the housing market.

Don’t listen to realtors if you’re thinking of buying a house in Canada, they want to make a commission and if they aren’t selling they don’t make any money. So rent for a couple of years and wait for the housing prices to come down and you will be rewarded when you purchase your house.

For those of you who currently own a house in Canada and are thinking of selling put it on the market now, before the correction occurs. Be prepared to take a lower price than you want, but you’ll still be profiting IF you can sell it. Buy low and sell high…now is the time to sell.

August 1st, 2010 at 8:07 pm

@seen this
“For those of you who currently own a house in Canada and are thinking of selling put it on the market now” – damn straight, my number is at the top right.

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