Finding the Hole

Defined

The market states of Vancouver Market segments are often defined by the Units Listed, the Units Sold, the number of current Active Listings, and of course the Average Price in that area.

Together, those elements provide a different snap shot. For Vancouver West the immediate history is evident however, in that history may also be some light from its future.

West Side Detached Units Listed

Units Listed have continued to drop sharply from April’s high of 424, a number that was only surpassed in May 2008 which recorded 435.

West Side Detached Units Sold

There has been a steady drop in sales to the current 147, down from the high of March 2010 which recorded 208 sales on the west side – a number that approached but did not supersede the 232 sales recorded in May 2009.

West Side Detached Active Listings

It’s uncertain how long this will continue but the West Side’s Active Listings continue to pile up. Currently at 797, it is almost double the amount of active listings recorded in January 2010. The current number of listings is high but not as high as September 2008, a month that recorded 1,053 active listings.

West Side Detached Average Price

The average price on the west side has retreated to February’s arena

Finding the Hole

It is unlikely that Vancouver West’s market will suffer a fate similar to the driver and his car that drove off the Georgia viaduct in this crash of 1929. There are indicators that this market segment is due for a correction but it is unlikely that it will be as catastrophic as the event in this picture.

We see the beginnings of the adjustment in the number of units listed beginning its decline. Assuming all things remaining somewhat unchanged on a global and national level, expected is that the Active Listings will in the next 45 to 60 days begin a similar journey.

Additionaly, detached Average Prices which although are are subject to skewing, would appear to be currently headed downward regardless of the associated hype of mainland Chinese buying all the high priced properties that exist within this segments boundaries.

Finally, detached Sales as evidenced by the number of units sold – 147, which represents a small change from May’s 150, but still a consistent drop since March 2010’s 208 units.

One suspects that in the near future there will be a greater propensity for the prices and active listings to find relief. What we see today may well be the weak link in the guardrail. The question that remains is if this is the opening, will the result be as dramatic as that seen in this picture? To some, it may be nothing more than what one might expect when a market seeks its future. Regardless, a hole is needed before the future light can be determined.

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

JustCurious Says:
July 4th, 2010 at 5:40 pm

Thanks as ever, Larry. How big is that average fall in price? And do you know the median value? Thanks!

July 4th, 2010 at 6:15 pm

@justcurious
see Average June post. Average percentiles are there. No medians at this time.

JustCurious Says:
July 4th, 2010 at 9:07 pm

Sorry if I wasn’t clear – the number I was referring to was for Vancouver west – the green line in the chart on this post. It looks like it’s a drop of >100k in one month. Thanks.

July 5th, 2010 at 5:26 am

@justcurious
no worries – detached average sale price, April – 1,003,884, May – 955,154, June – 970,542

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