What If?

A Senior’s Moment

Sometimes it’s the unrecognized stuff that is right in front of your face that carries great importance.

Here’s a ‘What If’ for you.

What If

Speculation is always fun. You never really have to have the facts and if you did would it be speculation at all? In keeping, there are no compiled or verifiable numbers for this bit of smoke in your eyes.

While reflecting on reasons that would justify the great number of active listings in the Vancouver market place it occurred to me that maybe, just maybe, it could be the result of the discounted commissions or broker fees that have become the rage.

Go Fish

Really, what does a seller care? For a few pennies he pays a Realtor® a discounted fixed fee to throw his listing into the MLS® cauldron. It is strictly conjecture that many of these sellers have a ‘go fish’ attitude. If it sells high – great! If it doesn’t – the only thing lost is a little Pine Sol splashed around the house.

A Maybe Problem

The problem might be that a majority of the current active listings are of this variety. If that is the case you have to ask if there is true impetus to sell? If there isn’t, then could this be a valid explanation for the number of listings that are floating around on the market? My guess that this is not the case but then again – we are speculating!

Without facts, we just don’t know. MLS® to my knowledge does not currently track this type of business. What we are seeing today could however be the result of a bunch of ‘maybe’ listings with nowhere to go except off the market.

Not Discounting

In the interim it might be wise to not discount this fact when looking at the active listings. What we might have is a very real problem of not actually knowing if there has been another element added to the market prediction mix. It is a ‘what if’ that could be important and one that will skew those elements leaving us to wonder how is the market really performing?

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Upenuff Says:
July 5th, 2010 at 5:21 am

Larry, very interesting. What made you jump on to that “go fish” subject? 🙂

July 5th, 2010 at 5:32 am

@upenuff
re go fish – not certain, think it was a conversation with a mortgage broker or maybe the sun came out. 🙂

jesse Says:
July 5th, 2010 at 8:34 am

Most listings I see are not from discount brokers. Given the number of price reductions and the amount of effort required to get a house ready to sell, I don’t think there are as many of these sellers at all.

It’s the low number of sales that’s the real indication of what’s going on, IMO.

Boombust Says:
July 5th, 2010 at 9:43 am

But, Larry, would that theory have also accounted for the increased listings and subseuent price drops in 2008?

July 5th, 2010 at 10:07 am

@jesse
don’t disagree at all.

@boomB
Like I said I got no proof – just floating a thought. What I am saying is that it is a number that will, should this business formula take precedence, become more relavent and is one that currently is not taken into account.

specialfx3000 Says:
July 5th, 2010 at 12:30 pm

I think for the short term, there will be many ‘fishing’ sellers thinking that they can simply remove their listing if they don’t get the right price.

6-12 months down the road when their carrying costs continue to mount while the the paper-gain appreciation do not keep up (or worse go the other direction), their positions will change quickly.

Too many wannabees in this town.

John1 Says:
July 5th, 2010 at 2:29 pm

Hey Larry.. Just got back from a little trip to Kamloops for a friend’s wedding. While at the mall I came across a real estate newspaper – I was surprised to find that the prices in Kamloops are not much more affordable that say, Langley. Just an observation! Was a nice sunny weekend until Sunday.

July 5th, 2010 at 2:49 pm

@john1
Glad to hear you behaved at the wedding. Strange coincidence, I was up on Hornby Island for a fast break and was also surprised to see basic lot with cabin/home running in at $476K + -. Biggest surprise was the Olsen farm. It is on the market for just under $10,000,000.

RavingBull Says:
July 5th, 2010 at 5:30 pm

June stats.

Ugly.

Of course the MSM will find something to spin. But their job is getting harder and harder.

This is a collapse.

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