Count Down, Day 5 – Richmond

Day Five – Richmond

In this 7 day series we will visit seven communities that comprise the Vancouver Real Estate market. We will visit the markets of Coquitlam, Burnaby, Vancouver East, Vancouver West, North Vancouver, West Vancouver and Richmond.

On day 7 we looked at Coquitlam and on day 6 we visited Burnaby. Today, the 5th day of the August countdown, we will visit the Richmond detached market.

During the two periods June 25, 2010 to July 24, 2010 and July 25, 2010 to August 24, 2010, detached properties in the Richmond neighbourhoods had the following results.

Listings

Total Listings decreased from June/July’s 858 to July/Aug’s 823.

Sales

Sales had a bump on its way down from June/July’s 112 to 73 in July/Aug.

Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market

Ships at Imperial Cannery, Steveston – 1900: Photo Credit

  • June/July had 63 listing mandates expire increasing to 66 in July/Aug.
  • Price reductions in June/July were 179 decreasing to 169 in July/Aug.
  • There were 25 price increases in June/July and 21 in July/August.
  • At 43 days, it took on day longer to sell a house in July/August compared to June/July’s 42.

Average and Median Prices

  • June/July’s Average Ask price was $996,915. The average decreased in July/Aug to $983,391.
  • The Median Ask price in June/July was $843,500. This increased to $868,000 in July/Aug.
  • The Average Sold price in the June/July was $957,098. In July/Aug this dropped to $945,641.
  • The Median Sold price in June/July was $817,500. In July/Aug the median increased to $838,000.

Looking Ahead

Richmond B.C. didn’t offer any hurrah’s for sellers in most categories. The slight drop in listing inventory while noted is not notable. The dark cloud of the drop in the number of sales continues and may foreshadow tougher times ahead for Richmond home sales.

Tomorrow we’ll get on the Skytrain and ride across the city to North Vancouver.

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

ietam Says:
August 27th, 2010 at 11:55 am

Larry,

Thank you for the numbers!

One thing that’s confusing though is that the numbers and the prices for the ‘month ago’ period (o5/25-07/24) do not match those from your earlier post a month ago (http://www.yattermatters.com/2010/07/countdown-day-two/)

-Ietam

August 27th, 2010 at 1:59 pm

@ietam
you should not expect them to be the same. The only numbers that are ever ‘locked down’ are at the month end. All others are generated dynamically as the market changes. Therefore, comparing last months post to the current one would not correlate. Bottom line the market never is at a stand still. Note: if you look down at the bottom of the disclaimer I do point this out.

jesse Says:
August 27th, 2010 at 2:07 pm

@Larry, just did a quick check on your #s versus the reported ones from GVREB. Looks like they are reasonably close. Just thought you’d like to know that, as I thought the sales numbers seemed worse than what I was anticipating and thought GVREB wasn’t reporting sales until near the month end.

One thing I find fascinating is how consistent the various regions have fallen since last year in terms of sales. The GVREB report shows about a 30% drop in total sales from May-Jul09 to May-Jul10. Most reported sub-regions are within 5% of this, with a handful of outliers away from the central core. The way I read this is that, generally, one region does not experience above or below trend sales for very long. Thanks for sharing and compiling these data.

On a related note, I think if sales remain muted (as they usually do in the fall) and buyers are prepared to negotiate HARD and long, there may be some relative deals coming in the fall. But if you can’t negotiate this yourself, get someone who can and let them know the deal upfront. While I can’t provide much consolation that prices have bottomed (just my opinion after looking at the data and predicate trends in other parts of the world), sometimes overpaying is the best option for one’s specific situation. I think the amount one will have to “overpay” with a good hard discount under market rates is palatable for many.

August 27th, 2010 at 2:30 pm

@jesse

I’m glad someone recognizes that is impossible to ‘nail’ down the numbers when they are generated dynamically. At best, you can try as I have, to pick a couple of hours on a specific day in which to gather up the numbers for all areas within that two or three hour time segment. From my end you can see them change from the time I log in to the time I log out. It’s brutal statistically! While some will percieve this to be misleading, it is simply more that they don’t understand that the market is a creature that never stops changing.

Thanks for confirming the numbers. I don’t make them up so resonably close is quite good.

Re last part of your note: I think if we can get the trashy listings to adjust to realistic prices or be taken off the market then it will be a different ball game. Right now they are clouding the water and it is difficult, frustrating and time consuming for many buyers to sort through the good, the bad and the ugly. You definitely need a pro on board to sift through the pile. As mentioned before, the pretty, solid homes are selling over ask while the remainder are sitting idle.
Something will give!

ietam Says:
August 27th, 2010 at 2:35 pm

Larry,

Thank you for the quick reply. Let me make the issue clearer – the same period (July’10) and area (Richmond) are covered in this post and your post about last month but the two posts give different numbers.

For example:

Your graph gives $817k as the “median sold price” for the 06/25/2010 to 07/24/2010 period.

Your post last month gives $853k for exactly the same period.

You say that [numbers] “are generated dynamically as the market changes”.

I expect that the “median sold price” for 06/25/2010 to 07/24/2010 period stays constant once we are past July.

-Ietam

This is a signifficant 5% 40k

August 27th, 2010 at 2:52 pm

@ietam
you might expect that result but it would be incorrect as there may be sales that have yet to be recorded for that period as they were submitted to the board after that date. ie: contract dated 07/24/2010 not submitted to board for 3 days would be recorded as a sale on 07/24/2010 even though it was received on 07/27/2010. However, on the day I gather the information on 07/24/10 those sales would not be there so the numbers would be off. When you go back 10 days later they will be there.

As I mentioned the only numbers that are locked down are the month end results. Everything else can change. They may be close but they will change and there is little I can do to control that.

If you are looking to establish the median change from month to month using interim numbers is not the answer. Only refer to month end numbers. Also keep in mind why I call them a Snapshot. Those are market values as recorded at that moment. Two minutes later or before they could be different. Example is to look to the Dailies. I time stamp those numbers for this exact reason.

ietam Says:
August 27th, 2010 at 5:43 pm

Larry,

It starts to make sense now.

Thanks for providing the numbers and the key information to interpret them.

-Ietam

August 27th, 2010 at 6:15 pm

@ietam
no worries. anytime.

Melville Says:
August 27th, 2010 at 8:55 pm

Larry,
Thanks for this forum. Thinking some more about this problem of all the trashy listings, I agree that these sellers (or in some cases their agents) will need to lower their prices to get these properties to move. But that is not going to help those sellers with nicer properties. Right now they are benefitting from sticky pricing. They stand out for the right reasons and sell over asking. As soon as that bottom rung gives way then that is no longer the case: then they stand out for a different reason, and their pricing will have to follow the trash down the ladder.

August 27th, 2010 at 9:26 pm

@melville
“they are benefitting from sticky pricing”
uncertain I am is whether the ‘trashy’ listings are in fact the sticky priced problem. There are a number of examples of substantial reductions in high priced homes $10,000,000 plus – some with reductions amounting to 100’s of thousands. Is it fair to assume that a similar price reduction in terms of a percentile by a lower priced home ‘hurts’ more? Is that the source of the reluctantance causing the stickiness?

As for the pretty, sound homes. Sure they will take a hit but my suspicion is that as the pain won’t be the same.

John1 Says:
August 30th, 2010 at 4:49 pm

It’s my assumption that many “pretty, sound homes” are grossly overpriced and these can be categorized in the trashy listings pile?

August 30th, 2010 at 4:54 pm

@john1

maybe it’s a bad description – I am actually talking about clean, well maintained, very livable, mechanically sound homes. If they have any character it just ads to the package.

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