Change

Chatter

Realtors®, as expected, talk a lot.

It may not be a consensus but recorded sales and ‘street chatter’ say the market is changing.

Ten

I’ve been spouting off about a market change for the past few weeks. I’ve watched as ‘pretty’ homes are being sold over ask on more than one occasion and in different market neighbourhoods.

After cups of coffee and the words of my contemporaries I am emboldened to confirm that if a property is close to or has a ten out of ten opinion rating – sellers can expect multiple offers that result in a sale price that is over asking. The tug of war witnessed between home Sellers and home Buyers over the past few months has intensified.

Grapevine

  • There is a tug of war between sellers and buyers.
  • New listing got a verbal and soon after a written offer at $25,000 below ask – all within a few days. Seller has decided not to counter saying it is too early
  • seller no.2 wants to increase list price.
  • heads nod confirming similar experience
  • one talking head points to this months office sales – now over 45, of which 12 sold over ask and 2 at asking price

Random Recent Confirmation from Two Areas

West Side Ask Sell
3279 West 3rd $1,098,000 $1,323,800
3003 West 13th $1,075,000 $1,185,000
2830 West 6th $1,098,000 $1,093,500
East Side Ask Sell
3402 East 28th $998,800 $1,010,000
1764 Charles $1,050,000 $1,020,000
34 East 18th $1,038,000 $1,055,000
5330 Prince Edward $799,900 $825,000

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Samsonite Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 7:11 am

hahahaha

bet all these realtors are highly trained economists too

Larry, sales for Sept (based on the data you/paulb post) look tepid – is it just that 10/10 properties are being bid at hard but the rest of the market is – what? (what about the rest of the market).

as always, thank you for your thoughts, good post – i appreciate hearing the ‘buzz on the street’, i’m hearing it elsewhere as well, but its not showing up in the overall stats (perhaps it will begin to, as I know sales are delayed in terms of closing the sale and closing the sale technically (subjects removed).

thx, enjoy your day

September 22nd, 2010 at 7:39 am

@samsonite
LOL! nope none are economists but they do work the street so when I hear these numbers rolling in it is quite probable that you can expect the ‘stats’ to start reflecting this in the weeks ahead as they are recorded.
I’ve been talking about the 10/10 for the past few weeks. It wasn’t new to me but it’s nice to have it confirmed by others and now yourself.
As for the remaining market they are moving but not as fast and they they are not getting the ‘full pop’ price. I don’t think it was my imagination but a quick glance was showing those prices coming closer to ask than say, two months ago.

I’ll be starting the community snapshots in a couple of days as we run up to the end of the month. Hopefully those will give us some indication but I’m thinking the real numbers won’t start showing up till week one or two of October.

This will sound very Realtor-ish but it would appear to be a good time to bring a house to market.

Samsonite Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 8:11 am

Thanks Larry.

I agree soundly with your last sentence. Bring it now, and hurry. As this won’t last.

IMHO

Cheers.

Sampson

September 22nd, 2010 at 9:31 am

@samsonite
“this won’t last” – nothing lasts for ever so i’m not sure why you think this is different.

bbcoq Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 9:51 am

Larry-just a thought-could established homes in good shape-renovated already pre HST (your pretty houses) be seeing a bit of lift while unrenovated properties and new properties (HSTapplicable on new and renovations) being discounted?
I looked at a place here in Tri-cities that needed renos and immediately rounded up for HST being added to the cost of said renos.

Melville Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 10:09 am

This increase in sales is only indicative of an emerging seller’s market if it isn’t swamped by a commensurate increase in listings. In my view there are way more potential listings sitting on the sidelines right now than there are potential buyers. This only the second inning of a game of tug of war that has at lest seven more to go.

September 22nd, 2010 at 11:00 am

@bbcoq,
good thought and a possibility

September 22nd, 2010 at 11:02 am

@melville
stranger things have happened in the past while that are contrary to conventional thought. Is it possible to have a sellers market with a lot of ‘fringe’ listings?

Roland Leung Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 11:02 am

Just back from San Francisco and came across this nice neighbourhood called Pacific Heights. I checked the recent transactions in the area in zillow and was blown away by the prices.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2755-Fillmore-St-San-Francisco-CA-94123/15072581_zpid/

You need to pocket out multi-million dollars for a 3000 sqft. lot in the area. Van West side or West Van is no comparison in terms of sqft. price then.

You can zoom out and you will see recent transactions in the Millions easily even amid the worst housing disaster in the US. It seems like good area in the San Francisco core hasn’t been affected an iota by the housing crisis in the US. What’s the cause?

Does the above lends any credence to the fact that pockets on the West side won’t be affected even if housing in Van in general suffers? Does this explain why you’re stilling seeing sold over list as you posted.

confused Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 11:06 am

I am confused Larry.
Your comment says that the chatter is the market is changing.
Changing from what?
You’ve taken a micro vision and made a macro representation.

So what changed? The macro condition or your viewpoint?

September 22nd, 2010 at 11:11 am

@roland,
yup SF is a special place. it’s not just the west side. it is also happening with well tailored houses on the east as well

September 22nd, 2010 at 11:12 am

@confused
it may be the kernal of a macro condition. like you I’m waiting for more proof but I am leaning.

asalvari Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 11:26 am

Larry

Have you personally seen one or few of the examples and can you speculate that they were listed significantly lower then the real market price point ?

I have seen (pictures and passed buy – did not go on open house) only one : 3003 West 13th. The first thing I said was – its going to sell for 1.15 or so. It was good house – worth 1.2 for sure.

Samsonite Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 11:40 am

Larry, will be interesting to watch and see if we do get a surge in sales in early October…will watch and see.

thanks for sharing your thoughts/etc.

September 22nd, 2010 at 11:41 am

@asalvari
I don’t think 13th was listed low. But it showed very nicely and the corner lot helps.

Samsonite Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 11:45 am
Roland Leung Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 12:50 pm

What I don’t understand is why this 3279 West 3rd, a Vancouver special, can fetch a higher price than 3003 West 13th, a renovated home?

asalvari Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 1:08 pm

Larry

I am pretty sure it was listed lower. The question is how much. It was listed pretty close to assesment value too.

The Realtor handling it lists lower to induce multiple offers pretty much on every listing. I have run couple of times into his listings and they all bear his sig – lower price that causes multiple offers and bid war.

If you take this house out, there is very little change between the listed and sold price for the rest of the examples you provide . Yet there is missing one crucial data (for me) and that is each listing assessment value.

So, are these examples of sharp pricing that caused correct reaction of the market (as is now) or we are really changing ?

I don’t know and I cant tell from these examples.

September 22nd, 2010 at 4:17 pm

@roland
3200 blk w 3rd would by some be considered a better address. plus the Vspecial would have more room.

September 22nd, 2010 at 4:18 pm

@asalvari
nope – that was the original list

asalvari Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 8:36 pm

Larry

not sure if we are on the same page anymore.

I am not claiming that the house was previously listed lower.

I am saying that:

1) The selling realtor has strategy to list property lower then it should be listed, to induce bidwars.

2) I have seen this too many times (same realtor) so I take this as his selling strategy.

3) you are basing your conclusions on data that I think is not sufficient for that conclusion.

September 22nd, 2010 at 9:44 pm

@asalvari
We are on the same page.
Will you go with supposition?

asalvari Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 10:23 pm

two thumbs up!

jesse Says:
September 22nd, 2010 at 11:33 pm

Well if things are picking up the stats aren’t showing it yet. Sales are looking to come in around August’s. Everything is relative I guess but based on sales volume the market isn’t that strong.

September 23rd, 2010 at 9:20 am

@jesse
my guess is that the numbers are percolating. I can’t prove that it is reflecting the entire market but, there seems to be a few smoke signals. 🙂

Jim Says:
September 23rd, 2010 at 10:13 am

Larry, I am no realtor or professional, just a serial flipper. But the dead slow July August would neccessarily preclude an uptick in the fall.
Here is why Vancouver’s real estate market will soar in the spring:
Chinese will be arrivng by the boat load, plane load and bus load to follow the “Glorious Leader’s” pronouncement that Vancouver is a Bejiing friendly city to visit, shop and buy houses in.
Larry you and I remember the impact of the first Asian invasion-and that was just Honk Kong. Well multiply that by about 100 (relative number of millionaires in mainland China vs Hong Kong).
So, if you can, buy westside or Richmond this fall.
Second impact which is holding up a lot of new home sales is the HST likely going away-so why buy now?

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