Vancouver’s Attached LAPS
Posted September 3rd, 2010 in Real Estate, Statistics | 
Attached L.A.P.S.
It’s always fun to put the puzzle together to see what the picture looks like when finished. At the beginning of each month a series of LAPS are compiled to give us a visual of each market segment.
Today’s LAPS center on the Attached segment of the greater Vancouver market place.
Vancouver Attached Units Listed
Units Listed continued to drop from April’s high of 1230. Slowly the numbers are reducing as we dip from June’s 934 and July’s 677 to August’s 647 Active listings.
Vancouver Attached Units Sold
Compared to June /09, when 802 sales were recorded, the 374 sales recorded in August 2010 appear anemic until you compare that number to January /09′s, 109. August was up from July’s 368.
Vancouver’s Attached Active Listings
Active Listings remain high – but slowly decreasing.
August recorded 2,356 Active listings. While high, let’s not forget that in Sept/08 it was 3,115.
Vancouver’s Attached Average Price
Average Prices bounced back to $551,035 from July’s $529,253 but did not exceed June’s extraordinary $569,037
Crash
It’s 3:39 a.m.
It was supposed to be a quiet restful sleep with the cool last days of summer breeze flowing through the open window that was interrupted by the crashing sound of metal!
It was the sound of two cars unceremoniously coming together. It is a very distinctive sound once heard that is never forgotten.
Now bolt upright, soon slippers and clothes were on as I scooted outside to see if anyone was hurt and in need of assistance. There in the middle of the street was an old half tonne truck with its sheepish, tired driver scrambling to find pen and paper with which to leave a note for his new found friend who he has met by accident.
Sounds
Sounds are either pleasing or reverberate with terror. A car crash is one of those terror sounds. From a relative standpoint this morning’s crashing sound resulted in a missing car door, a mess of car parts on the street, bruised feelings of incompetence and the snap, snap, snap of light switches turned on by neighbours eager to survey the scene.
Subtle in tone, there also was the undercurrent of a grumbling sound emanating from those neighbours who had been ripped from their nights sleep. Notable was the sound that wasn’t heard. It was that silent sound of time. It was the sound unheard from those who must now take time to make things all right.
Different
Of late, that there are a number of people who visit here who make sounds of a different type of crash. The sound they hear is that of a real estate crash. What does that sound like you might ask? Is it distinctive? Is it terrifying?
History books tell of a real estate crash before my time but what did it sound like? Currently, one assumes our friends to the south are hearing that sound and yet that sound is only heard by some – not all. Though they are aware that others have heard that crashing sound, the greater majority it would seem, have not.
Finding Balance
A lot of readers come to this blog on a regular basis. Some presumably do not hear a crashing sound. My question is – are those who profess to hear the crash the majority or are they a cabal of the disfranchised?
Larry,I dont knoe for others but I come here to try to make some sense of this market. I have a family of 4 and would like to buy a place, and have the money but whenone looks at the garbage that is selleing for one million dollars and one considers how hard is to make a million dollars in a honest job, there is room to be confused. So, yes I can understand people paying 1million for a piece of garbage with money from the bank, but I prefer to keep my million on my account and wait for better times. There is no doubt that a huge diconect exist in this city between price and value. you only have to look at the picture you posted yesterday with the house that sold over 600k for land value only. have we run out of land? I dont buy it.
@french
what you say is true. If you are a poker player the trick in that game like real estate is to know when to hold them.
Confusion for many rests in the decision of time – are you in it for the long run or for a short period. If it is a short period of time then the numbers become much more important. If your home ownership horizon is 10 years or more I suspect but can’t guarantee that you will be just fine. One aspect that we should not forget is that the world is going through an extensive financial crisis. Whether we like it or not it is having its affect on Canadians. My guess is that this mess is going to take upwards of another 5 years to sort itself out. By then your children may be on their way to university and the problem will self resolve.
All I can say to this house in particular. I remember clearly my father saying “kid buy land any land, the more the better off you will be in time”. That’s when you could buy 10 acres of orchard with beach front on Okanagan lake for $18,000. My problem was that I was making a $1.05 per hour packing groceries at Super Value which was big considering I had left a job that paid 70 cents an hour. I thought the manager who made $12,000 a year was something I should aspire to.
So what will the $762 look like in another 10 years. I don’t know but if history repeats itself I suspect it will look like that $18,000 lake front and regardless of the market up there now you would still be swimming all the way to the bank.
Thaks Larry, well said.
Ops … Am I brainwashed? LOL
When in debt-especially long term debt-inflation is your friend.
Your house goes up in value at the rate of inflation on average, and you pay your fixed mortgage payment in dollars that decline in relative value.
@bear
Brainwashed! – that would definitely be a new low
Well, that orchard has probably gone up at least 100x in value while that Super Valu manager’s income has only gone up about 5x in that span. So the question is, how likely is it that history repeats and where is all that extra money going to come from?
@purp
re history repeating – as claimed by many – the mess we are in now is a repetition.
Purp,
You may want to read up on fiat currencies and inflation, it will answer your question.
Larry, you are assuming this credit bubble will continue unabated for the next 10 plus years, and I don’t see how that will be the case. The credit growth that has driven the economy (and housing) over the last decade is unprecedented and is unsustainable. We (as a society and individually) are maxed out at this point. Interest rates have nowhere to go but up. If you extrapolate prices from this point, a million dollar house will sell for 10 million in 15 or so years…? I just don’y buy it (pun intended).
@crash
and if you are wrong what then?
“and if you are wrong what then?”
Crash’s logic breaks down if they cure aging or mortgage rates head to zero.
Seems like he’s got the odds in his favor.
“So what will the $762 look like in another 10 years.”
less than 762. none of us will live to see the day where it trades above 762.
“…and if you are wrong what then?”
Then we have price to income ratios of 20+
762 (in today’s dollars). inflation will pick up at some point, but hard to know where.
french
Do not touch this sick and diseased market with a 100,000 foot pole.
Rent.
Don’t worry about Larry, he’s saved up money from the good times and will be fine, unlike most realtors. And honestly, who cares about most realtors.
Things are going to get wild soon and you don’t want a $1,000,000 millstone hanging around your neck.
See, Larry, you know what I mean? Bears know it all. And they are all very angry.
Larry,
are you saying that I should enter the market now and buy because real estate only goes up?
Do you know any property for sale in this city that from a rent versus morgage payment makes financial sense?
@french
I don’t think I said that but maybe you perceived it.
oh right the age old ‘investor’ argument about rent vs mortgage – old news! If it makes sense to you and you are happy renting then continue to do so. I don’t have issues with your choices in life.
Any signs of deflation? All I hear are people mentioning inflation. Appreciating that we have not had anything but inflation in many many years.
@bbcoq
not that i’ve heard – others may have???