Vancouver Home Values Might Be Smoke In Mirrors

REBGV LAPS Series

Most puzzles are comprised of pieces imprinted with segments of a picture. The YatterMatter’s LAPS series of graphs puts divergent data segments of Vancouver’s Detached home market together to create a graphical picture.

Complete, this picture can help put market elements in perspective or, create a future of filtered smoke in a mirror.

Vancouver Detached Units Listed

The 2,503 detached units Listed in June tumbled a bit from 2,575 in May. The total was much lower than March 2011’s 2,968 units and substantially off from April 2010’s high of 3,183.

Vancouver Detached Units Sold

Until March of this year the greatest number of sales occurring in a monthly period during the past two years happened first happened in June 2009 when sales reached a total of 1,677. Then as predicted in March’s post when I expected to see some phenomenal numbers, luck was on my side and my guess was proven correct when March’s totals rang the bell at 1,799. Now, June’s sales have slowed by comparison trickling in at 1,473. It will be interesting to see if my guess is right and July’s numbers show a continuing drop in sales. Add to this fire, a suspicion that average prices will subside as well.

Vancouver’s Detached Active Listings

Though not at May 2010’s high of 7,368, at 6,253, June’s active listings are clawing their way back to lofty levels.

Average Price

For most of this year we have watched as Average Prices continued to climb to record levels. In June for the first time it reversed its path and dropped to $1,215,265. Following my 50/50 rule there is a good chance that Average Prices will drop again in July and continue through to the fall.

The shine on the bottom 50% is premised on a lot of global factors that are about to take form. Suspect is that the negative psychology of these global events will begin to settle on Vancouver’s high price range buyers who it is anticipated, may suspend their shopping activity until such time as more positive global news prevails. Could we see a return to a buyer’s market – probably!

Smoke and Mirrors

As a disclaimer it is worth noting that the ability to view future Vancouver home values is at best a smoke and mirror image. Existing data is of course, historical. Thrusting compiled historical data forward in anticipation of arriving at a conclusive projection remains in the magical realm of smoke in mirrors. Simply, that which we wish to occur in the Vancouver detached home market place is not always a true reflection of the hoped for reality.

Original Image Courtesy of Katerina Landrou

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Reggie Says:
July 13th, 2011 at 7:06 pm

Larry this market appears to be weakening quickly

Any thoughts?

Reggie Says:
July 13th, 2011 at 8:19 pm

Great post

I think you are bang on

Jim Says:
July 14th, 2011 at 7:26 pm

The toughest thing about forecasting is: its about the future.

Dydgi Says:
July 14th, 2011 at 8:51 pm

I agree Jim.

That said, the basic metric appear to be pointing the way – lower.

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