Kitsilano Nose Dive

Kitsilano’s Detached Home Pool

If sales a market make then Kitsilano detached homes appear to have taken a nose dive in this neighbourhood snapshot.

The two periods considered in this Kitsilano neighbourhood snapshot extend for a period of 60 days beginning with June 22, 2011 and ending August 21, 2011

Listings

Total Listings decreased from June/July’s 59 to July/August’s 47 in this, the traditional slow summer season, of Vancouver’s real estate market.

Sales

It was a shallow pool for sales. During this period sales dropped from 15 to 3.

Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market

  • Both the June/July and July/August periods had 2 listing mandates expire.
  • Although sales appear to have scraped their nose on the pool’s bottom, the number of days it took to sell a Kitsilano home speeded up as it only took 8 days to sell a home in July/August compared to 13 in June/July.

Average and Median Prices

  • June/July’s Average Ask price was $1,802,200. The average increased to $1,827,000 in July/August.
  • The Median Ask price in June/July was $1,588,000. The median increased to $2,158,000 in July/August. This extreme aberration from the month prior resides in the recording of 2 out of the 3 sales exceeded 2 million dollars.
  • The Average Sold price in the June/July $1,801,500. July/August saw a small increase to $1,808,666.
  • The Median Sold price in June/July registered $1,625,000. As noted above, July/August’s Kitsilano detached home Median Sold price increased to $2,038,000.

Shock Trauma

Diving into shallow pools can be dangerous and possibly lead to life-altering changes. With certainty, this Kitsilano snapshot provides a secular view of the general Vancouver real estate market and is admittedly, a shallow perspective.

Yet, what remains unknown, is whether those who took the plunge into Kitsilano real estate were aware of the golden rule? The rule being that when one is in doubt of what lies beneath the surface one should jump feet first especially, in the murky real estate pond that is the Vancouver real estate market?

One also wonders if upon surfacing from their dive into the Kits real estate pool – their first opportunity to see the July/August sales numbers, whether they retrospectively would have chosen to follow the golden rule instead of seeking help for shock trauma.

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

SoapSuds Says:
August 22nd, 2011 at 4:26 pm

Having recently sold my house on the Westside, I am waiting to buy in Kits. But I’m not going to do that until prices start becoming more realistic. These kinds of low sales will surely put downward pressure on prices?

bbcoq Says:
August 22nd, 2011 at 5:59 pm

The 15 to 3 number tells me the buyers are not as commonly found-what I do not see are the price reductions to attract buyers from the smaller pool of buyers. These stats are interesting but I will wait to see what Sept brings as things could be clouded by late summer finally arriving and financial market gyrations.
Too early to call a market turn but definitely an eye catcher.

August 22nd, 2011 at 6:06 pm

@bbcoq
Yesterday’s sale experienced a lot of ‘high interest resistance’ from the buyers. Came down to “take our counter-offer or we’ll go buy the other one.” Location won the day. With the high listing count the “gems” will be cleaned out of the mix soon leaving the second run product standing still. Not being particularly clever I’m anticipating a market path much like last fall. Well anyway – that’s what I think today 🙂

tony Says:
August 22nd, 2011 at 7:22 pm

The fewer the sales, the less meaningful the price stats become.

August 22nd, 2011 at 7:53 pm

@tony
and are you prepared to offer an arbitrary number of sales that will establish price validity? Can one sale determine a market?

Reggie Says:
August 22nd, 2011 at 8:11 pm

Tony,

I agree that for this small slice of the mkt the sales are too low to make the price stats all that meaningful, so I agree, but I think the story Larry is highlighting is HOW SLOW the sales are now….could just be August, we’ll know over the coming months….

Larry, hope you nailed the sale, sounds like buyers can now afford to be increasingly choosy….

any updated coffee talk?

thanks, really appreciate the market updates.

vanpro Says:
August 22nd, 2011 at 8:35 pm

Sales going form 15 to just 3 is a crash in sales, no doubt. Resulting in MOI sky-rocketing to approx 16 (=47/3) from approx 4 (=59/15). Significant price declines will surely follow as they have always done when MOI increases like this.

specialfx3000 Says:
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:25 am

With just 3 sales, Larry, would you be kind enough to determine what the asking and sell price of each of them are?

I’m curious if sellers are getting numbers close to their ask price. Thanks!

bbcoq Says:
August 23rd, 2011 at 8:26 am

Thanks Larry-I agree, quality of the house being sold seems to be a factor in any market but the inventory sure seems to be growing….at least out here in the burbs.

August 23rd, 2011 at 8:54 am

@special
as per post –
L – 2,780,000 S – 2,700,000
L – 2,198,000 S – 2,198,000
L – 2,158,000 S – 2,038,000
ergo the high median price

new today 08/23/11
L – 1,295,000 S – 1,295,000
L – 1,125,000 S – 1,190,000

specialfx3000 Says:
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:10 am

Very much appreciated Larry. Thanks!

If the new median continues, that would be one heck of a drop in the following month’s snapshot. 🙂

asalvari Says:
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:13 am

Larry

I feel that the numbers (avg/medians) are not quite right. how you got averages of 1.8M with these solds?

August 23rd, 2011 at 11:13 am

@asalvari
sorry about your feelings. 🙂
the numbers for these graphs are indicators not gospel. the board’s computer calculates the numbers (don’t ask me how). ergo the disclaimer on graph “subject to variation”

asalvari Says:
August 25th, 2011 at 9:58 am

Hi Larry

That was quite funny actually – I was not reffering if I liked or disliked the prices these days… I was trying to say that is pretty hard to get 1.8M average from numbers you have posted: 2.7M, 2.2M and 2M.

There is a math/calculation problem. Are you saying that these numbers are calculated by the board computers? Really ? So how much I should trust monthly stats ?

August 25th, 2011 at 11:05 am

@asalvari
Glad you got it. We need more laughs these days. 🙂

re board’s computer – answer is yes all by that machine. There isn’t a single number that I post that is not generated by that machine.

What I always caution people is that the numbers are volatile ergo the constant disclaimers. The main reason for this is as follows –

Imagine a bucket with water, a spout emptying it while it is concurrently being filled. The numbers you see in that bucket are dependant on the changes in volume of the listings flowing in and sales flowing out. Add to this the volume of listings that expire then are re-listed, terminations, hold actions which will leave you with a whirlpool of numbers that sometimes don’t make mathematical sense (at least from my perspective) but indicate a “feeling” of market dynamic. By the way I realise this may sound like a pretty lame justification but it is what it is. It’s also why I think a lot of people think Realtors® are full of BS. We work with what is and most of the time when combined with experience and that “feeling” some of us are pretty spot on in determining market values.

Can you rely on the figures? Sure, if you accept that they are indicators and not gospel. In other words grey! In terms of ‘fixed’ numbers (please don’t read into that) they only occur once. The cut off point is made is at 00:01 am at the end of each month. Bottom line – it’s as good as it gets. Real estate is not science unless you consider mass psychology a science.

Hope that helps 🙂

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