Stats Don’t Lie!

REBGV Stats

Is that a crack?

According to the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board “increases in property listings and fewer home sales over the summer months has helped move the Greater Vancouver housing market into the upper end of a buyers’ market.”

Highlights

  • sales of detached, attached and apartment properties on the region’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) reached 2,246 in September, a 1.2 per cent increase compared to the 2,220 sales in September 2010. Those sales also rank as the third lowest total for September over the last 10 years.
  • new listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,680 in September, the third highest volume for September in 17 years
  • the increase in listings represents a 20.1 per cent increase compared to September 2010 when 4,731 properties were listed for sale on the MLS® and a 21.2 per cent increase compared to the 4,685 new listings reported in August 2011.
  • At 16,085, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 4.6 per cent in September compared to August 2011 and rose 4.4 per cent compared to this time last year.
  • with a sales-to-actives listings ratio sits at 14 per cent, which is the lowest it’s been this year and has been trending toward a buyers’ market over the past three months
  • housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 8.8 per cent to $627,994 in September 2011 from $577,174 in September 2010
  • benchmark price for all residential properties in the region has declined 0.5 per cent
  • sales of detached properties on the MLS® in September 2011 reached 957, an increase of 10.5 per cent from the 866 detached sales recorded in September 2010
  • attached property sales in September 2011 totalled 367, a 4.2 per cent decrease compared to the 383 sales in September 2010
  • sales of apartment properties reached 922 in September 2011, a 5 per cent decrease compared to the 971 sales in September 2010
  • benchmark price of a detached properties increased 13.4 per cent YOY
  • benchmark price of an attached unit increased 5.4 per cent YOY
  • benchmark price of an apartment property increased 4.4 per cent YOY

Spin Cycle

It’s hard to say if the board’s commentary is a fast spin or just a fluff cycle. Since we are talking percentages, the suggestion that a buyer’s market kicks in around 14 or 12% of the sales-to-active-listing ratio seems like a crack in confidence that widens and narrows as required. Last month the pres noted a sales-to-actives listings ratio of 15 per cent, claiming that Greater Vancouver is in the lower end of a balanced market. As a casual observer, it would be nice to know where the crack is.

At 14% it doesn’t seem anyone is ready to declare that a crack exists even though overall prices are down 0.5%, it was a month that recorded the third lowest number of sales in the last 10 years and in combination it had the third highest volume of listings in 17 years.

Stalwart in his view, the pres flies the flag saying – “There’s more competition amongst home sellers in today’s market, providing more options for prospective buyers. Buyers now have more properties to choose from and more time to make decisions compared to the spring season.”

Complete Report Here

*Data and quotes courtesy Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

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*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Boombust Says:
October 4th, 2011 at 5:47 pm

…“increases in property listings and fewer home sales over the summer months has helped move the Greater Vancouver housing market into the upper end of a buyers’ market.”

Sounds like Duckspeak to me.

What’s it supposed to mean?

October 4th, 2011 at 6:00 pm

@boombust
yah know I was kinda wondering myself. My translation would be that we crossed some logical line from a bottom end to an upper end. Maybe it’s a first date thing!

BubbleBoy Says:
October 4th, 2011 at 9:06 pm

@ boombust
It means real estate is F$&@ed! This party is over!! But they don’t wanna spook anyone by saying it that way.

October 4th, 2011 at 9:23 pm

@bubbleboy
sorry I didn’t see that you were talking to @boombust but since I’m in charge here is my response to your comment

could be but I’m hard pressed to say that we should all be renewing our wills.
I anticipate a pretty flat market for some months. A hint to this is the number of price reductions on the Dailies – they are substantial relatively speaking, which suggests that the sellers are already making adjustments.

Is it enough? For pretty homes maybe but like last year there is a lot of less than spectacular houses on the market right now that are in need of a lot of work. A big mortgage plus renovations is simply too much for many to consider so those homes will languish and be off the market by year end. I’ll post up an inventory check after the month end dust settles. I’m guessing but I think inventory will start to reduce in the next 25 days.

BubbleBoy Says:
October 4th, 2011 at 10:14 pm

@yattermatters
There are quite a few listings now in the burbs. Richmond is now flooded and will lead the way with reductions. Once that happens, the surrounding cities will follow. Realtors never admit the market is dropping, except for Andrew Hassman. Good luck!

October 5th, 2011 at 7:15 am

@bubbleboy

“Realtors never admit the market is dropping, except for Andrew Hassman.”

That is a bullshit statement!

ZRH2YVR Says:
October 6th, 2011 at 11:07 pm

I agree re the B.S. comment. Larry is certainly one of the most “factual” realtors out there. He somewhat calls it like it is. Positive is positive and negative doesn’t get spun to positive.

Right now the facts are – inventory is increasing, listing rate is very high and sales pace is very low. Continued momentum like this must lead to reduced prices.

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