Christmas Tree

Downhill

On October 1 2011 the total Active Listings of the three lower mainland real estate boards amounted to 25,248 units. On December 18, 2011 that number now sits at 19,797.

Keeping Pace

On December 18, 2010 the total Active listing count was 18,109. While there is a difference of about 1,000 units between this year and last year, we can look back to see that on Oct 1, 2011 the total was 25,248 whereas October 1, 2010’s total was slightly less at 24,457 units.

A quick glance suggests that the drop in Active listings this year is mimicking last year. Assuming this pattern, expect to see these numbers begin a very aggressive drop during the latter part of December approaching ‘nose dive’ status in the first few days of January.

Thoughts

Patterns sometimes look like Christmas trees. Unless the world goes flat, it also seems probable that the Vancouvr real estate market will slowly see Active listings begin to climb in the latter half of January and possibly continue to accelerate through the spring.

About Larry Yatkowsky

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*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

vanpro Says:
December 23rd, 2011 at 8:42 am

Sorry to be pedantic, but isn’t it more like 1,688 higher this year (19,797 on Dec.18/11) vs. last year (18,109 on Dec.18/10) which is a significant 9.3% higher?

December 23rd, 2011 at 9:52 am

@vanpro
it is higher this year in Dec which seems in keeping considering that it started out higher in Oct. What am I missing?

Update: today Dec 23, 2011 the total sits at 19,150. Dec 23, 2010 was 17,269.

vanpro Says:
December 24th, 2011 at 12:42 pm

I guess the other part of the puzzle is sales. Fuller picture maybe from MOI (Inventory/Sales) to see where we are, where we came from and maybe where we are headed…

vreaa Says:
December 27th, 2011 at 7:21 am

Prices can ‘Christmas Tree’, too.

US:
http://www.metrotrends.org/images/house-price-chart3.jpg

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