Vancouver’s Divine Numbers

What’s in a Number?

Two of Vancouver’s divine numbers are those recorded as sales and active listings.

Bad Numbers

In 2011 Vancouver and lower mainland Active Listings hit bottom at 13,965 on January 5th. It went up as high as 25,248 on October 1, 2011.

In 2012 Vancouver and the lower mainland’s active listings hit bottom at 15,444 on January 4th – which according to my limited knowledge of Feng Shui are considered bad numbers.

Bottoms Up

By January 25, 2012 Vancouver and the lower mainland’s active listing count was 18,976. With 2012’s active listing count jump starting at 15,444, it seems within the realm of possibility that a new higher level of active listings for 2012 is in the works – one that may supersede 2011.

Fire Breathing Thought

It is the Year of the Dragon, a creature which according to Chinese tradition, is regarded as a divine beast.

Reflecting in tandem upon the current lag in Vancouver home sales and the quickly rising number of active listings it makes one wonder if in a short time new to market Vancouver homes – part of the total active listings number, will no longer be regarded as divine, but rather a ‘beast of burden.’

Image Credit

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

vangrl Says:
January 25th, 2012 at 5:49 pm

wow, looks like on Jan 20th 2011 we were at about 15,500 and on jan 20th this year we are at 19,000 listings, that is a substantial increase! I’d say that dragon is a snake in disguise

January 25th, 2012 at 5:54 pm

@vangrl

good eyes but just for the record…

total for three boards was 15,890 on Jan 20 2011
total for three boards was 18,488 on Jan 20 2012

don’t know about the snake :)

Reggie Says:
January 25th, 2012 at 6:16 pm

Larry,

This may go down as one of the most important blog posts of 2012.

IF (highly doubtful if your Chinese contacts are right about the boat and planeloads of buyers coming!) this market turns down, the graph above will be one to put in the annals of history.

Amazing. I had no idea that things were looking so absolutely bearish.

I wonder – is this the big one? Is there a crash coming?

Say it ain’t so.

RL

Boombust Says:
January 25th, 2012 at 6:30 pm

Well, Reggie, as Galbraith wrote, bubbles don’t end with a whimper …”they end with a bang”.

Take it from me…

“BOOMBUST”.

Rational Says:
January 25th, 2012 at 6:51 pm

Isn’t it the same pattern as the year previous? Sure looks it to me?

Reggie Says:
January 25th, 2012 at 7:37 pm

Boom,

Larry’s CHINESE contacts IN THE KNOW say different.

Watch and learn young grasshopper. This is the year of the DRAGON and of booooooming prices increases here in Vancouver.

Why do you doubt? Because you’ve been wrong for so long? Go long and strong.

Reggie Says:
January 25th, 2012 at 7:50 pm

Looks like Vanwest is heating up again.

Lots of Chinese savvy businessmen here for CNY to scoop up cheap Vancouver real estate.

The rich don’t get richer sitting on their hands.

Boombust, think Chinese, it will be good for your financial health. This is the year of the Dragon, did you know that?

BubbleBoy Says:
January 25th, 2012 at 7:57 pm

@Reggie

Do your research. Vancouver is the second most expensive RE in the WORLD!! That’s crazy talk! Hong Kong is higher but HK total land mass is 460 sq/miles and Canada has a gazillion sq miles. Correction indeed. But serious bust? Don’t know yet, but very high chance. When have we ever seen so many alarming news about a bubble popping? Even Canadian Business, TD, and Realtors are bearish. As one person in this town once said, “it is what it is”.

Reggie Says:
January 25th, 2012 at 8:12 pm

Hi Bubble,

Sales are picking up.

Listings are levelling out.

Savvy/rich CHINESE (these guys know how to make money, not parking cash at one point two five percent at the bank) businessmen are here to scoop up Vancouver real estate. It’s all over the news.

So, watch what happens. Bidding wars in the weeks ahead.

Reggie Says:
January 25th, 2012 at 8:18 pm

Larry,

These fellows clearly have no clue as to the number of flights coming daily from China with rich and savvy buyers.

I don’t know why they can’t see things as they are.

Oh well, wishful thinking I guess. Hope you are having a great week thus far.

RL

Re-diculous Says:
January 25th, 2012 at 8:23 pm

Reggie,
Do you do realize how silly you sound? Step away from the kool-aid.

Jughead Says:
January 25th, 2012 at 9:19 pm

These rich and savvy Chinese buyers are still celebrating the new year. Just wait a few days for them to digest their delicious food before they start parking their hard earned cash into Vancouver real estate. We must be patient.

Denno Says:
January 25th, 2012 at 11:57 pm

@Re-diculous

I don’t know why you guys are picking on Reggie. Haven’t you read the papers lately? It’s clear this is the YEAR OF THE DRAGON – not year of the Snake/Tiger/Whatever.

The Americans may have put a man on the moon and invented the iPhone, but they couldn’t prevent their housing bubble from bursting. The Chinese do a much better job of selling us cheap crap – hence they are more business savvy. So be warned the year of the DRAGON means they want to come to Vancouver with suitcases full of cash. There is no investment like it! ™.

vanpro Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 7:56 am

“total for three boards was 15,890 on Jan 20 2011
total for three boards was 18,488 on Jan 20 2012″

So this is quite a large 16.4% increase in unsold inventory YoY.

BubbleBoy Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 7:59 am

@Reggie

Chinese people don’t bank their money at 2.5%. They put their $ into the illegal businesses. That’s why they are rich. Take this advice from a person that is from China and know many Chinese. Take a look at sales in Richmond. As of Jan 20, there were only 28 sfh sales with 800 listings and growing. Wait you can’t see, because you don’t have access to those numbers. I guess you will have to wait until Feb to see the worst January if you exclude 2009.

BubbleBoy Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 9:14 am

Relying on the Chinese for a rise in RE prices is min boggling. Pray for 3000 sales from these people a month, and maybe your home will keep its value. The smart ones sell at the top, and the others just watch as the city crumbles.

Rob Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 10:17 am

Regardless of what your thoughts are with housing in this city, you have to wonder if we are relying on foreign buyers to prop up market? If this is the case it is cause for concern.

Alan Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 10:40 am

Two things that matter:

1. Buying season in Vancouver does not get into full swing until the spring time. There will be inventory build-up due to holidays, cold weather and the selling/buying season is setting itself up for,

2. The lowest interest rates in lower mainland history.

Also backstop from financial markets and resolutions from Eurozone will help. US getting back on track will only support these levels, not deteriorate them.

Reasonfirst Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 11:55 am

I think Reggie is being sarcsatic..

Reasonfirst Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 11:55 am

opps: sarcastic

Jughead Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 12:28 pm

If we have rich and savvy Chinese buyers keeping the top end of the RE market busy, and we have next-to-nothing interest rates keeping the mid-low range busy, then we have a robust housing market.
Be calm. There is no cause for concern.

specialfx3000 Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 1:12 pm

Jughead, you forgot to mention that we have mountains and Michael J Fox.

Wait, Mikey no longer lives here. OK, we have mountains. Unless they take away those mystical mountains, we will always have a robust housing market.

BubbleBoy Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 1:12 pm

@Jughead

“Be calm, there is no cause for concern”

Thanks for the tip. I’ve sold at the top and now renting. I’m not concerned at all. I sold my home at sweet price, and others in the area are praying. Anyone that has done what I have, are on the right track. The ones that hold, well you will see. I have no sympathy for you. I don’t see the “dragon” have any effect in China. Chinese people invest when there’s a potential to make money. In a downturn, they back off. When the market is hot, it doesn’t matter what the weather is.

Hazu Chan Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 1:28 pm

I’ve never seen so many messages of “reassurance” about market conditions on your blog before Larry. It makes me think there must be a lot of worry in the marketplace.

Reasonfirst Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 2:39 pm

Jughead Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 12:28 pm

“If we have rich and savvy Chinese buyers”

Yes – “IF”

vangrl Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 3:08 pm

I agree ReasonFirst, I think all of Reggie’s posts are tongue-in-cheek.
I’d be ignoring them if I were Larry

fish10 Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 5:19 pm

Larry

The comments section is starting to read like the script of a Monty Python film :)

January 26th, 2012 at 7:07 pm

@fish
sometimes the ‘real story’ has nothing to do with the story :)

BubbleBoy Says:
January 26th, 2012 at 9:12 pm

Larry,

But all these story’s end the same way. The good guys always lose and the bad guys get away. Just ask the Yanks, Brits, Irish, Aussies, and Japs. Those countries are full of dark clouds summoned by Chucky from Childs Play.

Boombust Says:
January 27th, 2012 at 6:51 am

“Wait, Mikey no longer lives here”.

Not even “Canadian” anymore. So, can we stop dragging him out to our “special events”?

Comment On This Post

will not be published
http://www.yourwebsite.com