Vancouver’s Real Estate Swamie Says

Cam’s Crystal Ball

Cameron Muir, Chief Economist at the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) rubbed his crystal ball to conjure a Vancouver Real Estate outlook in this the First Quarter Housing Forecast.


  • Modest economic growth at home and abroad is expected to limit growth in consumer demand both this year and in 2013
  • BC’s MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 2.1 per cent from 76,817 units in 2011 to 78,400 units this year increasing a further 2.7 per cent to 80,500 units in 2013.
  • 15-year average is 79,000 unit sales
  • Record was 106,310 MLS® residential sales in 2005
  • European sovereign debt concerns and a sluggish US economy will continue to impact consumer confidence
  • Demand in the bond market may keep mortgage interest rates at or near record lows for most of 2012
  • Home prices in most BC markets are forecast to experience little change over the next 24 months
  • Average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to edge down 2.2 per cent to $548,500 this year
  • Expect market to remain relatively unchanged in 2013, albeit increasing 0.8 per cent to $553,000.

Information Copyright BCREA Reprinted with permission. Full Report Here

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

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*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Peter Pan Says:
January 27th, 2012 at 11:37 pm

Asking Cameron Muir to comment on real esate prices and volumes is akin to asking a chimpanzee to trade banana futures…

The monkey might like bananas, but it doesn’t give it any special insights on the future direction of banana prices.

BubbleBoy Says:
January 28th, 2012 at 4:38 am

Cameron should be replaced. Someone more honest like Sheryl King or Garth Turner. They see it from the outside in, not inside out.

Cam! How’s Kelowna ,Victoria, Whistler, and Squamish doing? I’ll tell everyone since you’re not! It’s a struggle !!

January 28th, 2012 at 9:37 am


“They see it from the outside in, not inside out.”

This leads me to question your rationale.
If that’s the case, why are you taking up my band width? Have you forgotten that I am a Realtor?

bbcoq Says:
January 28th, 2012 at 1:57 pm

As a financial consultant I remeber the wise words of a long since passed colleague who seemed to amke money for himself in good markets and bad: “Any opinions other than your own are worthless as it YOUR money you are putting on the line-the rest is noise.”
i think it is even more appropriate in the world of real estate where even those that avoid the stock market have a significant stake in the game.

Re-diculous Says:
January 28th, 2012 at 2:15 pm

IMHO, anytime spent reading what Cameron Muir has to say is time wasted.

Village Whisperer Says:
January 28th, 2012 at 4:35 pm

Your thoughts on Cameron’s assessment, Larry?

January 28th, 2012 at 5:51 pm


what can I say… Mr. Muir would probably offer a similar comment.

January 28th, 2012 at 5:57 pm


unlike some bears – considering that Mr. Muir is viewed as a ‘friend’ of RE, this latest report should be filed under ‘restrained optimism’

Boombust Says:
January 28th, 2012 at 6:17 pm

“…his latest report should be filed under ‘restrained optimism’

…nd put him in a straightjacket. Crazy shit

January 28th, 2012 at 6:23 pm


Whoa! That’s a deep line in your sand box 🙂

Mike Says:
January 29th, 2012 at 12:33 pm

So was there a wave of buying caused by CNY? What are you hearing from other realtors?

If so, was the buying only in a few rich areas or all over the city?

Lloyd Christmas Says:
January 29th, 2012 at 3:48 pm


I agree with bubbleboy. Sometimes when you want to believe something, you have a different outlook. I work with mortgages and for a several months it’s been very slow. Ive notice the slowdown since summer and didn’t believe we could see prices come down. I feel different now. This decade have paid us well in the real estate business, But it’s time to face the fact that this could end one day. It looks like this boom is over for now.

January 29th, 2012 at 7:53 pm

Can’t speak for others (will be watching if there are sales registered next week), but 2050 SW Marine Drive saw 4 or 5 of 26 visitors over the double open weekend.
As expected, at this price level most with genuine interest came from locals (excluding those with historical curiosity). Of those who took time to engage in conversation were of the opinion that market was changing – which translates into we’ll wait.

vanpro Says:
January 30th, 2012 at 9:07 am

“As expected, at this price level most with genuine interest came from locals (excluding those with historical curiosity).”

But I thought only rich Mainland Chinese billionaires could afford “this price Level” of $8M+??

January 30th, 2012 at 9:48 am


local wealth doesn’t advertise

vanpro Says:
January 31st, 2012 at 9:44 am

Any update on this SW Marine listing? Snapped up by “local wealth” yet?

January 31st, 2012 at 10:05 am

were you hoping to make an offer?

vanpro Says:
January 31st, 2012 at 10:35 am

Nope. Just wondering if local wealth is oblivious and unaffected by worldwide economic and financial disasters over last 3 years or, on the contrary, if they are less willing and less able to plunge ahead w/ multi-million$ housing purchases in already one of the most expensive cities in the world…

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