Vancouver Average Price for May 2012

Ahead of the Train

It’s ok to run on railroad tracks as long as you can stay ahead of the train.

Vancouver Real Estate continues to have winners and losers in its market segments as detached and attached prices slowed while apartments remained steady in comparison.

Average Price 1977 – 2012

Detached

Vancouver’s detached average home prices continued a slow retreat from February’s high of $1,235,244 receding to a current average price of $1,073,331 down 12% YOY.

Two years of gains are on the block as this market approaches the low not seen since November 2010 when the average was $1,043,161.

Telling is that with Active listings are at an all time high of 7,577 units up 23% YOY, and with sales down 24% YOY might imply that a great number of Vancouver home sellers may be running hard in their hope of staying ahead of the train.

Attached

With an average price of $551,083 in May, Vancouver’s attached market segment has retreated to slightly below January 2012 levels.

Apartment

Youth has its advantages such that when you are young there is a greater chance that you can run faster than the train. A traditional starting point in home ownership, apartment average prices have during the past year remained relatively steady as May 2012 recorded $461,410, a price similar to May 2011’s $465,422.

Vancouver Real Estate Average Prices:

Detached Attached Apartment
May 12 – $1,073,311 May 12 – $551,083 May 12 – $461,410
May 11 – $1,223,421 May 11 – $555,057 May 11 – $465,422
May 10 – $955,154 May 10 – $543,507 May 10 – $442,835

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory – Active Listings

Detached Attached Apartment
May 12 – 7,577
+ 23%
May 12 – 2,653
+ 14%
May 12 – 7,605
+ 22%
May 11 – 6,129 May 11 – 2,315 May 11 – 6,212

Vancouver Real Estate – Units Sold

Detached Attached Apartment
May 12 – 1,184
-24%
May 12 – 517
-10%
May 12 – 1,156
-05%
May 11 – 1,575 May 11 – 579 May 11 – 1,228

*Percent = YOY

Image Credit Flickr via The Highline.org

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Felix Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 9:00 am

I believe the apartment line chart should show a decrease, instead of an increase in the graph.

“…May 2012 recorded $461,410, a price similar to May 2011′s $465,422.”

specialfx3000 Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 9:20 am

Early in the morning on the first day of the following month and you already have the avg data posted.

As always, thanks a million for providing this timely data to us addicts.

Cheers 🙂

Bull.S Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 10:02 am

Your chart has an up arrow for appartment, even though that segment is down $4K YOY. Am I missing something?

Not much of name... Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 10:13 am

If this is a “slow retreat”, I’d hate to see what happens if it picks up steam…

June 1st, 2012 at 10:20 am

@felix
the graph is correct as it records monthly numbers Apartment Average in April 2012 was $445,458 May 2012 was $461,410.

June 1st, 2012 at 10:21 am

@bull
see comment to Felix

June 1st, 2012 at 10:22 am

@not much
yah me too!

June 1st, 2012 at 10:24 am

@special
LOL! Are you suggesting I am a pusher? Nasty and Brutal! 🙂

Jennifer Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 10:49 am

Just wondering what areas your numbers cover? I also read http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.ca/2012/04/vancouver-price-drop.html
and his number for listings May 31st/20012 are: 18,881. The listings for January 3rd were: 10,671.
This shows a listing increase of 80% approximately to date.

Thanks

June 1st, 2012 at 11:04 am

@Jennifer
I can’t comment on Whispers’ numbers.

I suspect they may be an aggregate total of all segments.

Numbers provided here are REBGV’s for all areas within its service mandate.

eastvanspecial Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 11:22 am

Thanks again for the stats. I always look forward to the 1st of the month because I know yattermatters will be first to post the numbers

June 1st, 2012 at 11:30 am

@eastvan

Thanks – my pleasure 🙂

Vangrl Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 4:48 pm

Thanks Larry,

BubbleBoy Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 4:53 pm

When the average price was up YoY for the past few years, everyone was getting excited. But now the average is dropping, that must truly mean something. With higher listings and also a record amount being added, it’s sure looks and have characteristics of a bubble.

thetamax Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 5:35 pm

Was that you on the CBC? You’re becoming a news regular!!

Greg T Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 6:13 pm

Hi Larry,

Just curious, where do you get your source data from?

Greg

June 1st, 2012 at 6:25 pm

@greg T

As noted in the graph the data is sourced from REBGV

June 1st, 2012 at 6:35 pm

Larry,

You use “YOY” can you explain this to me? Is it “year over year”

CBM Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 6:35 pm

I doubt prices will fall much further. It looks like detached has hit its historical level of support. It’s probably up again from here.

Alex Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 7:24 pm

Thanks Larry. Really appreciate the work and effort that goes into your posts!

June 1st, 2012 at 7:37 pm

@Dena
yes

Olga Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 8:11 pm

Larry – thanks for the stats and for the awesome picture of the cowboy at the West-side!

June 1st, 2012 at 8:29 pm

@olga
If you followed the link just think that maybe 80 years from now +-, the skytrain tracks may be a park walkway/bike route. Something Gregor should do with the old CP right of way.

anon Says:
June 2nd, 2012 at 9:13 am

CBM Says:
June 1st, 2012 at 6:35 pm
I doubt prices will fall much further. It looks like detached has hit its historical level of support. It’s probably up again from here.

^ what do you mean ‘historical level of support?’ I am asking because it would seem that nothing in this graph would indicate that prices will not fall further. On the contrary, all the indicators appear to support the notion of a further fall. You never know, but I would certainly not count on prices not falling.

xyz Says:
June 2nd, 2012 at 9:46 am

@anon RE CBM

Bull Trap, just enjoy 😉

CBM Says:
June 2nd, 2012 at 9:48 am

@ anon

The historical level of support for the last couple of years has been over $1M for detached in Vancouver. When there was a drop to this level last time in detached it shot right up again.

The reality is that prices never really fall in Vancouver proper, they just kind of flatten out from time to time with the 80s being a minor blip. But even in the 80s Kits didn’t drop at all, it just flattened out………that 40% correction was elsewhere in the Vancouver region, never the west side.

We’ve been propped up nicely by very wealthy Mainland Chinese investors (I hear stories from friends they’re about 75-80% of the market now in Vancouver), so when prices drop near the $1M mark they buy.

The reason Richmond has dropped is these investors have started to realize that it can flood there, so they started buying on the North Shore, but that’s also stopped recently because there’s not a large Asian demographic there and they weren’t all that comfortable, so they’re back to the west side and they’re just taking a break for now, but they’ll be back to prop up the market again probably in the next couple of months.

vanpro Says:
June 2nd, 2012 at 10:52 am

CBM:

Van West detached (SFH) benchmark price dropped about 20% from July/08 to Nov/08 (i.e in just 12 weeks). So major price drops DO occur in that segment and location.

http://www.rebgv.org/home-price-index?region=Vancouver+West&type=Detached&date=2008-12-01

See also, mid-1990’s….

anon Says:
June 2nd, 2012 at 11:10 am

The historical level of support for the last couple of years has been over $1M for detached in Vancouver. When there was a drop to this level last time in detached it shot right up again.

^^ not sure I would base the’historical level of support’ on the last couple of years. I also believe the last time it shot up was due to factors such as decreased interest rates etc. I look at this and think, prices are decreasing YOY (and substantially so), inventories are through the roof (which will support continued decreased prices), unit sales are way down in a time that typically sees increased sales (and this is month 3 of this happening), banks are getting tighter with how they lend (and will continue to do so thanks to OFSI), banks are now officially putting out warnings in the main stream media about rising levels of personal debt, Royal Bank just released a study that the average Vancouver family needs 89% of its PRE-tax income for housing, BMO says if interest rates rise even 1% 40% of Canadian families report they cannot afford their current mortgages….yikes, to me this all sounds like a recipe for disaster. My first thought goes to those factors rather than simply relying on HAM to prop up the market simply because the last few years have seen average home prices at about 1M….and personally, I’d like to give more credit to Asian investors – lots of better places to invest money now than the Vancouver market.

Felix Says:
June 2nd, 2012 at 12:15 pm

@CBM

Mainlanders have left, they have enough worries happening back at home. Prices will drop further, even more when rates increase. Price declines of over 100 listings happen each day right now. People want to get out, most are house broke, living from their HELOC.

CBM Says:
June 2nd, 2012 at 4:03 pm

Hmmm, well all I know is that in January 2011 a realtor I know told me that “747s of Mainland Chinese are coming here etc” and sure enough a couple months later prices went through the roof.

It’s kind of strange that it spiked so quickly like that just because of interest rates.

Anyway we’ll see if prices drop below their previous $1M resistance level for detached.

I’m in no way a bull, and I don’t own any property so I would like to see a correction. I just feel like a total fool for not buying over the last 5 years when I have friends who work at Walmart making $13/hr who have already made almost $100k in equity due to this foreign buying.

Simple Says:
June 2nd, 2012 at 7:42 pm

@CBM

It seems like you have heard the term “historical level of support” somewhere but I’m not sure that you are using it correctly. As other posters have commented, there is really very little evidence of support at the million dollar mark.Personally, I would say that the first down side target for a “dead cat bounce” is around 800K in the detached market.

painted turtle Says:
June 2nd, 2012 at 10:06 pm

@CBM

ahhh… so many urban legends in Vancouver in the past two years! I would not bet my financial future on them.

Bull.S Says:
June 2nd, 2012 at 10:06 pm

CBM
Seems folks forget pretty quick what happened in Vancouver in the mid-late 90’s. The owners of the house I was renting in Dunbar lost close to 30% in 3yrs. They bought for 900K and sold for 650K. This was a very nice house at 14th/Alma with great view.

Bull.S Says:
June 2nd, 2012 at 10:15 pm

I just check the historical averages…prices peaked in mid 90’s at about 435K, a few years later they were about 340K…but whatever, that’s only about 30% drop

stats don't lie Says:
June 3rd, 2012 at 6:45 am

CBM = Bob Rennie in disguise? Maybe Cam Good?

specialfx3000 Says:
June 3rd, 2012 at 10:47 am

@CBM

Definitely no speculation here.

1. Your Realtor friend told you…

2. Your well paid top-of-the-food-chain Walmart friend bought a house

3. They ‘made’ $100K in equity. They’re richer than I think.

Sarcasm off.

Martin Says:
June 3rd, 2012 at 11:26 am

Once again thank you for the stats and your unbiased analysis.

Larry what are the areas of weakness and strength?

Smoking Man Says:
June 3rd, 2012 at 8:06 pm

Interesting.

$73,311

If we fall that much more (if/when), it will be the talk of the town…

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