10 Year Low
Stats don’t lie and the official Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) report says that residential property sales hit a 10-year low in June and yet prices, remained relatively stable.
With this knowledge the obvious question arises. Will all eyes now turn in anticipation that those ‘relatively stable’ prices will be the next chink in Vancouver real estate’s armor.
On a Positive Note
According to the President of the REBGV, “Overall conditions have trended in favour of buyers in our marketplace in recent months. This means buyers are facing less competition and have more selection to choose from compared to earlier in the year.”
“Today, our sales-to-active-listings ratio sits at 13 per cent, which puts us in the lower end of a balanced market. This ratio has been declining in our market since March when it was 19 per cent.”
- New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 5,617 in June 2012. This represents a 3 per cent decline compared to June 2011.
- The total number of residential property listings on the MLS® increased 22 per cent from this time last year to 18,493.
- The MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 1.7% and declined 0.7% compared to last month.
- The benchmark price for all residential properties in the Lower Mainland** is $558,300, which is a 3 per cent increase compared to May 2011 and a 2.3 per cent increase compared to three months ago.
- Detached Sales in June 2012 reached 921, a decline of 37.4 per cent.
- Detached Benchmark price increased 3.3 per cent from June 2011 to $961,600 down from May’s YOY of $967,500
- Apartment sales reached 1,026 in June 2012, a decline of 18.4 per cent.
- Apartment Benchmark price increased .3 per cent from June 2011 to $376,200, down from May YOY of $379,700 .
- Townhome sales in May 2012 totalled 415, a decline of 21.0 per cent
- Townhome Benchmark price decreased 0.1 per cent from June 2011 $468,400, down from May YOY of $470,000.
Upon reading this report, casual observers might find cynicism knocking on their door. They may ask if these numbers are real and are they sufficient, useful and productive – in short, do they help? Few will claim the market numbers reflect a bubble bursting as it heads for the tank. Others will say it is only a normal part of any cycle and it is adjusting. Fewer still will say everything is normal and appears to be a logical repercussion of market forces influenced by federal/provincial/civic governance and global financial issues. Suspect is that most will agree that ‘it is about time.’
Others will lay claim saying that the REBGV is somehow misleading them with anecdotes contrary to their vision of the market. Some will see REBGV as patently setting a course of deception for they have as example, left median and average prices out of the picture choosing instead to use only the HPI as the guideline.
Perhaps it is my privilege and burden as a member of REBGV/BCREA/CREA to contend with the perception of this reality for while all the numbers are there to be made available to the public, sometimes there just isn’t enough real estate on a page or manpower to tell the whole story. Instead, what is chosen to be released to the public is a synopsis of that considered by those who issue the information to be the most pertinent. To be clear – YatterMatters suffers the same issue.
In choosing to be selective REBGV/BCREA/CREA walk a knife edge. For those who understand and play with numbers all this information and more is a must have. For those less inclined, the synopsis is more than adequate.
** Benchmark prices underwent a re-calculation in order to more accurately reflect trends measured by the MLS® Home Price Index. There were no changes to the calculation of index values.
This re-calculation involved aggregating benchmark prices using the sales weighted approach for the reference period (i.e. January 2005) and thereafter linking movements in aggregate benchmark prices to their corresponding MLS® HPI.
*** Full Report Here