Vancouver Is About to Make a Splash
Posted July 22nd, 2012 in Real Estate, Statistics | 
Competitive Diving
In all diving contests, divers are required to perform a specified number of dives. A key judging element is the entry splash the dive creates.
Looking at the history of Vancouver’s real estate market you will find that it too has performed a number of dives – some with more splash than others.
Splashes
Back in June of 2008 Vancouver’s housing market was in the middle of a steep dive as it recorded only 33,136 sales. The decreasing number of sales continued to twist and turn as it dropped to September 2008′s total of 28,475 sales. That particular dive straightened months later with a grand splash as April 2009 recorded total sales of 21,459.
It appears that the dive graph called Vancouver house sales contains indicators that the market may surpass September 2008′s lackluster performance with June 2012 recording 28,617 sales – only a few hundred sales separate the two.
Splashy Results
As you read this the points collected for this dive are being tallied by the judges. In the midst of untangling the results for presentation in early August the judges may in the interim view this contorted graph and its indicators suggesting Vancouver’s real estate market’s performance is not about to straighten. As such, there is little chance of a smooth entry but there is expectation of a big splash.
What is the Y-axis represent? Sales 12MMA? Sales / mth (seems high for that)? Can’t be sales YTD obviously.
Weren’t cheap mortgage rates, longer amortizations and minimal (or even 0%) downpayment requirements responsible for pulling the market out of its dive back then?
Those manipulations of the RE market are gone now…AND we have tons of new-build properties added since then to the already ballooning inventories.
Doesn’t look good, Larry.
@johnnyd
rolling 12 months ie: last number June 30, 2012 = 28,617 – this is the total number of all residential sales for the period starting July 01 2011 and ending June 30, 2012.
It looks like July sales have really bottomed out Larry. What are you seeing? July started off so strong. Everyone speculated it was because of a last minute rush to get the 30 year mortgages before July 9th. Based on trends this month, it appears those speculations may have actually been true. I just have difficulty wrapping my head around why people would actually do that. Those last minute buyers could prove to be the “Greatest Fools” as Garth Turner would put it. July 9th could become sort of a D-Day. If we go into a long extended downturn, it could take 15 or 20 years before the home prices return to the price paid for them on that fateful July 9th, 2012 day. Unfortunately, the people who lose out are the young couples who are probably so excited about owning their first home and planning to move in as we speak, happy that they secured their 30 years of heaven.
@adam
You seem to be a GT follower which could explain all drama wrapped up in that comment. Are you selling books too?
“If we go into a long extended downturn, it could take 15 or 20 years before the home prices return to the price paid for them”
It seems a contradiction that you then say they got a 30 year mortgage. If that is the case it sounds to me like they will be winners after the first 15 or 20 years of extended downturn when everything is screaming back up.
“yattermatters Says:
July 23rd, 2012 at 5:11 pm
@adam
You seem to be a GT follower which could explain all drama wrapped up in that comment. Are you selling books too?
“If we go into a long extended downturn, it could take 15 or 20 years before the home prices return to the price paid for them”
It seems a contradiction that you then say they got a 30 year mortgage. If that is the case it sounds to me like they will be winners after the first 15 or 20 years of extended downturn when everything is screaming back up.”
Or they’ll be in foreclosure before then when rates increase by 2% and they can’t handle the increase. LoL.
Thanks for this Larry.
This graph is different from many of the ones I’ve seen so far, and one of the scarier ones. I like that it shows how many sales are happening, instead of the values of sales. It tells the story of how many people are making transactions on properties regardless of price.
@vanman
I’m of the maybe and maybe not school.
Larry,
This market looks like its gonna tank. Over in Richmond, take a look at this discount fr tis waterfront property.
4320 River rd. Thats a 30% haircut!!! Some people that bought last year, are selling now at a loss to prevent anymore losses. Many bulls have turned bearish. The ship has turned, and it’s looks like the compass is showing an “S”.
Now over in your territory Mr Y, I see things are quite at the same levels as the ditch down south. Point Grey has never seen over 100 listings. With sprinkles on top, sales have slowed to a halt. Every month that goes by, we will set new record lows. It’s definitely a bubble. I didn’t believe it before,(how could u believe that before ?) but I truly believe it now. Look at the world, are we really better than the rest?
@bobby
on the other side of doom and gloom is blue sky for some buyers.
Agreed Larry. And so looking forward to welcoming that blue sky! Thanks for the stats and all the work you put into this blog.