It could be a result of sunstroke or it could be a glimmer on the horizon that the lower mainland and the Vancouver real estate market in particular is about to change!
Total Active listings have been relentless in their accumulation becoming as plentiful as blades of grass on burnt summer lawns. While enjoying their summer BBQ, many home sellers watched their For Sale signs fade in the heat.
According to the IDX data of the three real estate boards, we see that Total Active Listings during August have hovered between in the 27,000 to 27,200 range. Casual observation suggests that it is a pattern seen before where totals having reached the top, then begin to flutter for a month or two before beginning a decent.
Seasonally the timing appears to be a little ahead of itself and this indecisiveness could continue through to the more traditional fall period where Active listings slow.
Bothersome is the ‘cold beer commentary’ given by some visionary REALTORS® who have advised their potential sellers to wait until the fall market arrives in expectation that it will be a better time to sell. It may be the sunstroke that has affected my vision but their position remains questionable and seems unlikely as unofficial sales numbers dribbling in are casting shadows of a month that may set new lows. If this holds true Vancouver REALTOR® market evaluations will need adjusting!
- Current home sellers may view the dismal number of sales as a reason to withdraw from the market. In part this may explain the hesitation now seen at the top of this Active listing graph. Notable is that while prices have dropped in many areas those drops have not been sufficient rekindle the ‘standing room only’ of earlier markets.
- Expected is that in early September there will be the classic blip of listings falling off the market. The critical part will be whether that fall off will continue or if those visionary REALTOR’S® new September listings will be sufficient to prop up the Active Listing total.
- Interesting is the outlook of some Buyers who claim that they have not been able to find their ‘perfect home’. In a market where there is more product for sale than ever before one asks if that is the real reason they have not purchased. The answer is – ‘we are waiting for the bottom’!
- Problem with this outlook is that the bottom or top is only known after the fact – neither come with an alarm!