Cam’s Desk – British Columbia Home Sales Lower
Posted September 17th, 2012 in Real Estate, Statistics | 
Trend
Down.
Snapshot
- dollar volume declined 25.4 per cent compared to same month last year
- 5,337 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded over the same period
- number of sales down 17.9 per cent from August 2011
- the average residential price was $491,145 – 9.0 per cent lower than a year ago.
Cam Says
“Consumer demand continued to trend lower in August – tighter mortgage credit conditions introduced in July appear to be taking a toll on an already tentative market. However, with home sales slower than improving economic conditions suggest, a rebound may be in store before year-end.”
Year To Date
BC residential sales dollar volume declined 17.5 per cent to $26.2 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 9.1 per cent to 50,131 units, while the average MLS® residential price was 9.3 per cent lower at $521,599.
Information and Graph Courtesy BCREA Reprinted with Permission
a rebound by year end ? unlikely
A rebound by year end? Cam is smoking something weird.
Looking at the REBGV August stats, sales are down on average -45% in Richmond and Vancouver Westside. Total dollar volume is DOWN by over 50%!
FYI to Cam, where is the data to support the rebound thesis?
From a techiical perspective, nothing is more promising of a down market than a triple top. If VRE goes up it would be a quadruple top.
He must be talking about a rebound in listings??
@lookout
“where is the data to support the rebound thesis?”
careful he might ask you the same thing
BTW his number/email is at the bottom of the full report
I sure am glad I bought last month – a new build in a master planned community in North Coquitlam. Nice green belt, fresh air, across the street from lush forest.
Just getting a cheque for $10,000 from the BC government sure helped.
At my tax rate, that’s about 15K pre-tax income. Nice for a government worker that isn’t used to annual performance bonuses.
Panbao,
I’m happy for you, hope you love your place!
In fact, I envy you. You bought a place at a price that’s attractive for you, in a place that sounds like you will truly enjoy and appreciate.
In my situation, $10,000 or $15,000 is not going to make a difference (well, I wouldn’t sneeze at it either!!) given that I’m buying well into the million plus range….and I expect to ‘save’ well over half a million given my expectation of further price declines.
Larry, the ‘evidence’ is found in reversion to mean, price to income, price to rents, MOI, etc. Your smarter than your average realtor (IMHO) even when you don’t act like it! (tongue in cheek:-)
@smoking
“save well over half a million”
Be ready! It may be closer than you think.
“Your smarter than your average realtor” – ‘blushing’
panbao,
“I sure am glad I bought last month”
If you needed that 10k, I don’t think you should be so excited. Your timing is off.
@smoking man –
Agreed. Even if our property falls by 10-15% over the next couple years, I’m still fine. % changes on 425k isn’t very much compared the scary 1.5M for 40 year old dumps on the East Side of Vancouver.
At the end of the day, its 3.5X our annual after tax income, and would cost approximately the same amount to rent (based on current rates anyway and the fact a similar place is currently rented across the street for $2000 which is our total net carrying cost).
The only trick will be paying the mortgage down fast and growing my tertiary income from a side business that I’m now expanding!
Thanks BC for the $10,000 cheque today!
@Van guy
Easy up – in the 70′s the BC gov was handing out $2500 if you had kids and I was glad to have it. Back then it made all the difference in the down payment on a purchase of $72K for what was at the time I bought it a Main street crack house. A lot of sweat equity went into that house over the years and today that same house exists and is now all tarted up. It was ugly to start with but was warm, dry close backed on to Grimmet Park, had a suite was close to Fraser Elementary, Riley park and work. Life seemed grand.
Panboa seems to have it under control – he did the numbers. They made sense and he’s happy. That’s not a bad thing in today’s world.
good luck panbao, you CAN handle a 10% correction, you can just eat spam & kd for the next 15 years. The brand new kelowna pad i’m renting from the developer just came down 20,000.00 this month. I lost 18,850.00 less than him this month because im renting. I could also buy this place and make positive cash flow from what Im paying in rent, but couldn’t stand to see that kind of equity evaporate. Enjoy your 10,000. Thats 2 months of live in Van.Hope you got more dry powder than the 10 grand for your new business. you wont be tapping equity anytime soon.
Larry,
You bought a sfh in the 70′s. That’s the diff. You have land. And there’s no way that TH could be worth 4.2 in 40 years. Without land in this side of the country when you reach your golden years, it’s extremely hard to retire.
@van guy
yes I did. Rents were low but landlords were painful. Also, my ‘expectations’ of what my money would buy at that time were low and I don’t have a problem getting my hands dirty. I could have a purchased a shiny condo back then but even back then I knew that dirt was the key.
@Van Guy
Who doesn’t need 10k?
Anyway, it’s already been invested in my business – for my side business, cash = inventory.
@trashy
I’ll pass on the spam. Thanks though
Anyway, the next phase in our complex is coming on-line next month – already half sold at pre-build stage and is starting at 15K more than we originally bought. Don’t see a crash up here.
Real estate is definitely local. There is a reason I bought in a brand new master planned community that is 5 min drive from a coming billion dollar infrastructure improvement (skytrain) as opposed to a dump in East Van where the bubble is fully priced in.
Anyway, I don’t care about equity levels – I don’t see my home as an ATM. I just want to get the mortgage paid off by the time i’m in my mid 30s so I can live mortgage free and spend more time traveling.
Good luck!
@smoking man –
we are in the same boat…looking at buying a home in the 1.5-1.6M dollar range. Expecting that is what about 2M would buy you now. Maybe more, maybe less. No matter, the rent vs buy decision favors renting for us now anyway. Hoping to get in next year, but if prices continue to fall then we will continue to rent *shrugs*
Panbao,
You don’t get it. Attached properties in the Tri cities have been dropping for at least 2 years now. Don’t you follow sales-active listings? A few years down the road, you will see Coq sfh’s go for the price you paid for your TH. I may not be in financial trouble later, but your home will become illiquid. Just ask people that experienced the last correction of the 90′s. People hated their life when prices declined 20%. This time, it won’t be as tame.
How much lower will prices in Kelowna go? They’ve been hit really hard the last 4 years.
@greg
I think numbers for Kelowna might be in Cam’s full report.