BCREA Market Housing Update
Posted October 16th, 2012 in Real Estate, Statistics | 
Tighter Regulation Trims Home Sales
Our good friend Cameron Muir, BCREA’s Chief economist brings us his Market Housing Update.
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So, we’re back to the “safe but stodgy” regulations from the past?
What an idiot.
It was loose credit/mortgage requirements that created this mess in the first place.
@boom
doubtful that you can put all of that on Cam’s shoulders.
Jim Flaherty must shoulder the blame for loosening credit standards. Of course he and Harper were in the hunt for a majority government, so keeping the housing party going took priority over sound fiscal policies………..
All that education in economics, but he didn’t learn anything. Unbelievable!
@van guy
another perspective is that he has a good paying job
Those were HIS words in the video. not mine.
@Van guy
What education in economics? He doesn’t have one!
http://www.remonline.com/?p=241
He did “some coursework”, and we all know what that means…
@data Junkie
from your link:
“Muir shifted his focus to academic pursuits, obtaining diplomas from Kwantlen University College and the University of British Columbia, a degree from Simon Fraser University and graduate work in economics and property theory.
Prior to joining BCREA, Muir held the position of Senior Market Analyst for the British Columbia region with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp”
Some respect is due Cam. Graduate work in economics is more than simply ‘course work’.
So that we may all make a fair comparison of who should wear the mantle of academic authority, please itemize your ‘course work’.
It is obvious that in the press releases people would often say not what they think but what is needed to be said based on their PR agenda, so I would not even bother discussing that Cam might not understand what is really going on, but rather why is he saying what he said. For now it seems that providing some pressure on the government in order to try to get it to relax the mortgage rules again might be a strategy of the people/industry heavily invested in RE.
Do they understand that it is a dead end? That the RE market simply overgrown its bulk customer and there won’t be enough activity unless the prices moderate and catch up with the fundamentals? Probably they do understand it but are trying to deffer inevitable to be able to get out before the crash started.
“graduate work”
By pointing that out you just raise more questions like “why didn’t he finish his grad studies”
@Reason
I’m not calling anything into question. What I do know is BCREA’s economics team has seats on the BC Government Economic Forecast Council and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Survey of Economic Forecasters. The assumption therefore, is that those folks don’t have a problem with their credentials.
This begs the question as to whether this line of questioning bears any value or whether the sole purpose is to slag a good name.
Unless you and/or @data junkie are prepared to move this further and bring into question those entity’s qualification requirements, or provide proof to the contrary with regard to stated credentials I for one will and do accept – unless proven otherwise, that Cam and his team have earned their letters.
Look forward to @data junkies credentials and your report.
What the heeck – it’s Friday afternoon:
The question was raised in my head by your comments – I didn’t mean to imply you rasied it.
These credentials are out into the public domain. Questioning them is what a critical thinker would do. Just because someone is in a position of authority doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be questioned – quite the opposite.
Looks like Brendon Ogmundson is the one that contibutes to the Philadelphia survey not Cam.
The Philly didn’t predict negative GDP in the US unitl their 4th Q report: http://tinyurl.com/8hn8lfp after the US was already in recession. Their 3rd Q report predicted GDP growth of 0.7% in the 4th Q, actual growth negative 6.3% (http://tinyurl.com/8hme9pm) – so much for credentials.
The BC EFC is a mystery- can’t find any details.
With these changes do we not just create a better balance? And maybe, just maybe a drop in price would allow a return to normal market conditions. There is no way anybody can describe a healthy market in housing when you have 15% gains year over year.
Having real estate boards or whoever lobbying govt to change its mind with regards to recent rule changes is showing me that,way to many people r in over there heads. In these cases we, the investor/buyer have only one person to blame ourselves.
Larry,
Even a quick glance at statistics regarding Canadian housing starts, prices, housing formation, etc, over the last 10 years, indicates there is a bubble. How can educated economists (such as Cam Muir, Tsur Somerville, et al) not understand this, and in fact even dismiss the evidence ? They are either wilfully blind to the facts or they are trying to mislead………..
@form man
What can I say. Call them and ask them to explain their thought process.
They are paid shills.
I don’t blame them, they have an agenda, its not the ‘truth’ it’s a spin to help assist the industry agenda.
NOTHING WRONG with that at all.
It’s up to the consumer of the information to understand and appreciate what they are digesting.
Grow up folks.
As for academic background – diploma at such and such and graduate courses including economics seems willfully vague, so I suggest that academic accomplishments are not his strong suit.
That said, it’s there (including the gaps) for all to see, so I see no need for him to apologize for it.
Larry – any coffee talk updates?
thx
SM
One of Canada’s top economists would surely be Mark Carney. He has been warning Canadians about the credit bubble for some time. It might be useful for Cam and Tsur to reflect on guidance provided by Mr. Carney…..
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/canadas-credit-bubble-and-the-central-banks-dilemma/article4627045/
@smoking
Agenda’s LOL! – glass houses my man, glass houses. The way I see it in my perfect world of balance and harmony is that if Cam is a shill for the industry perhaps you might be considered a shill for an opposite view point.
As for coffee talk –
that could be summed up as certainty of uncertainty! Call it paralysis from analysis. I know, I know that is obscure but everyone is struggling to get a clear picture from mud.
Subjective consensus suggests that the s… won’t hit the fan until rates climb, regardless of price. ‘Urgency’ on both sides of the fence (buyers/sellers) doesn’t seem to be part of their lexicon. Until that sense of urgency or frustration returns it is latte’s for everyone with extra foam and pasta dinner at your house.
Thanks Larry (coffee talk update).
It does seem reasonable that without further credit rationing or rate increases, the market will likely be in a slow melt mode (IMHO).
Shill, sure, but not a paid one, and not one that gets any public press, and not one that can benefit his career from his views. So I don’t see the parallel at all.
I think Whistler might open early (it sure was cold out today!), looking forward to a good ski season, fingers crossed!
Ciao,
SM