BCREA Reports MLS Dollar Volume Down

Dollar Volume Down

Our good friend Cam – Chief Economist at BCREA, tells us in his latest missive that “the dollar volume of homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC declined 14.6 per cent to $2.7 billion in October compared to the same month last year.”

How Many?

A total of 5,276 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded over the same period, down 10 per cent from October 2011. The average MLS® residential price was $508,292, down 5.1 per cent from a year ago.

His Thoughts

“While consumer demand was stronger in October on a provincial basis, home sales continue to trend below last year’s level, tighter mortgage credit regulation has moderated housing demand on the South Coast.”

Good Stuff

Cam also tells us that there was “an increase in residential sales recorded in the Okanagan, Kootenay, Chilliwack and BC Northern board areas.”

Overall

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 18.2 per cent to $31.1 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales declined 10.5 per cent to 59,946 units, while the average MLS® residential price was 8.6 per cent lower at $518,321

Information Courtesy BCREA

Full Report Here

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*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Been there B4 Says:
November 15th, 2012 at 10:34 am

Thanks for the numbers Larry. Even our good friend Cam has Trouble sugar coating those. I believe that this is just a warmup. Wait until the spring, when the thousand of expired and cancelled listings from this year come back on. The people will see that it will be tougher than ever to sell there overpriced retirement nest eggs. That is when the real price drops start. Yes Larry, it is going to get ugly…….. no matter how anyone sugar coats it.

November 15th, 2012 at 2:48 pm

@been there

In his defense Cam has a job to do. Let’s not forget that he is only the messenger of the numbers.

So what are your solutions?
You amongst many others – based on the past commentary herein constantly serve up forecasts of doom and gloom. That’s all good and fair but if you all are as wise as you claim and would wish to have readers here believe that then let’s hear about solutions.
Assuming your proposition that this market is fried please tell us how can it be fixed.

Been there B4 Says:
November 15th, 2012 at 5:11 pm

@yattermatters

So what are your solutions?
You amongst many others – based on the past commentary herein constantly serve up forecasts of doom and gloom. That’s all good and fair but if you all are as wise as you claim and would wish to have readers here believe that then let’s hear about solutions.
Assuming your proposition that this market is fried please tell us how can it be fixed.

Larry …. Cam just showed you the numbers …. the market is being fixed as we speak. As prices fall, the fundamentals become more sustainable. Unfortunately we have a long ways to go yet before we get there. And there is going to be immense pain and suffering in the process. As I stated earlier ” This is just the beginning ”

The Vancouver RE market will then be fixed. And then we can start all over again. You have been involved in RE long enough that you must have seen these cycles before. Like everyone knows …… nothing goes up forever. Not even Vancouver real estate ………

Ralph Cramdown Says:
November 15th, 2012 at 8:01 pm

Solutions?

Well, convince Carney to run inflation at 5% for 5 or 6 years. Wages would rise while mortgage debt remained, house prices might remain relatively flat in nominal dollars while falling in real terms. The dollar would fall, which would help exporters, but foreign investors would flee.

Or government could take on more debt to build infrastructure while further targeting residential construction, which would keep overall employment in construction at its elevated level, kicking the can down the road a bit.

Create an explicit policy of selling citizenship to non resident landlords/investors? Would create a more permanent class of foreign rentiers collecting from local renters…

Maybe the ripping the band-aid off approach, of further tightening in the hopes of getting the market back to fundamentals more quickly, on the theory that the quicker we get it over with, the quicker the recovery begins?

No good answers, but that doesn’t mean there’s no problem.

November 15th, 2012 at 8:14 pm

@Ralph
“ripping the band-aid off approach” – ouch! 🙂

Devore Says:
November 17th, 2012 at 3:29 pm

I’m not sure what kind of “solution” you’re looking for… I guess, what is the problem, first of all? Falling prices are the solution to high prices. Prices will fall until they find economic support. The only “solutions” possible at this point is more government intervention to keep prices artificially high. What problem is that a solution to, and why are high prices good?

Devore Says:
November 17th, 2012 at 3:38 pm

And of course, if the answer is “the government should…”, we must be mindful of the inevitable unforeseen and unintended consequences.

Someone above said Canada should run high inflation for a bunch of years… yeah, like nothing would possibly go wrong with that. Never mind that this is devilishly hard to engineer, if not impossible. I mean, it’s easy to inflate another credit bubble, but “inflating away” existing debts can only happen when you increase incomes. A credit bubble just increases debt, hardly a solution at all. While I don’t doubt there would be some winners as a result, in aggregate we would end up with more debt, and in even worse position.

November 17th, 2012 at 5:12 pm

@devore
“unforeseen and unintended consequences”

– By this are you pointing at the magnitude of each? Would it be fair to say that the initial plan to loosen up credit was by itself probably not a bad idea as a stimulus but got out of control and grew into a house party gone bad. Today in its aftermath how long do you anticipate the cleanup will take? BTW – it seems the party was worldwide.

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