REBGV Reports that Stats Don’t Lie

Grade School

Little Johnny’s parents were unhappy. Every mark on his report card was ‘below average’. Poor Johnny. It wasn’t his fault. When his parents asked about his performance Johnny didn’t lie. “It was the market” he said!

Stats Don’t Lie and the Vancouver Real Estate Board’s latest report card like Johnny’s, is also stamped with ‘below average’.

Sales Report

  • total sales of detached, attached and apartment properties in 2012 reached 25,032 – down 22.7% from 2011.
  • last year home the sales total was 25.7 per cent below the ten-year average
  • sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,142 in December 2012, a decrease of 31.1 per cent from the 1,658 sales recorded in December 2011
  • December sales were 38.4 per cent below the 10-year December sales average of 1,855.

Listings Report

  • residential properties listed for sale declined 2 per cent in 2012 to 58,379 compared to the 59,539 properties listed in 2011.
  • last year’s listing total was 6.1 per cent above the ten-year average

Teacher’s Comments

  • “2012 saw a collective hesitation on the part of buyers and sellers”
  • “the behavior reflected lower than average home sale activity and modest fluctuations in home prices”
  • “home prices came down a bit during the latter half of the year”
  • “we saw fewer home sales and listings”

Needed Review

  • reaching a peak in May of $625,100, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has declined 5.8 per cent to $590,800 – down 2.3% YOY.
  • detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 1,380 in December 2012 – down 15.3%

Detached

  • detached properties in December 2012 reached 425 – down 32.5%
  • detached Benchmark price declined 6.5% to $904,200

Apartment

  • Apartment sales reached 504 in December 2012 – down 34.9%
  • Apartment Benchmark price has declined 1.9% to $361,200

Attached

  • Attached sales in December 2012 totalled 213 – down 16.1%
  • Since April the attached benchmark price decreased 4.4% to $450,900.

Next Semester

Speaking to Johnny the teacher noted that his level of “activity continues to vary depending on area so it’s important to work with your REALTOR® and other professionals to understand the trends in your area of interest.”

Here’s hoping that with professional help Johnny can look forward to better grades.

Full Report Here

Quotes and Data Courtesy REBGV

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

davers Says:
January 3rd, 2013 at 3:58 pm

Does not compute.

“reaching a peak in May of $625,100, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has declined 5.8 per cent to $590,800 – down 2.3%”

“detached Benchmark price declined 6.5% to $904,200″

“Apartment Benchmark price has declined 1.9% to $361,200″

“Since April the attached benchmark price decreased 4.4% to $450,900.”

The only one down less than 2.3% is apartment and it is a paltry 0.4% above the so called ‘average’ for all property types while detached is 4.2% lower than the ‘average’ and attached is 2.1% lower than the ‘average’.

Does apartment really make up that large of a chunk of the overall ‘average’ house in Vancouver? If so then the overall average should be a hell of a lot lower since the average apartment costs far less than 2/3 of what the average residence costs.

January 3rd, 2013 at 4:21 pm

@davers
Not sure if we got oranges and apples happening here. If I am understanding what you have said then it seems to me you are using the HPI numbers and comparing them to the averages. Don’t think that will work well and if that’s what you have done you are in a ‘jam’.

Mick Says:
January 3rd, 2013 at 7:09 pm

Can’t argue with the facts, though many will try.

davers Says:
January 4th, 2013 at 11:49 am

When I said average I meant the overall benchmark. All the numbers I used were from the above post and as I understand it all of those are benchmarks.

I don’t understand how a 6.5% drop in detached benchmark, a 1.9% drop in apartment benchmark and a 4.4% drop in attached can all result in a 2.3% drop in the overall benchmark.

But I just read this part again

“•reaching a peak in May of $625,100, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has declined 5.8 per cent to $590,800 – down 2.3%”

and now I am thinking that the overall benchmark is down 5.8% from peak and 2.3% year over year? Is that right?

If so that makes a lot more sense, but it’s worded pretty awkwardly.

L8erDude Says:
January 4th, 2013 at 12:13 pm

so if I’m reading the stats right it looks like wer’e about 25,000 sales in 2012.
The last time we saw such a low number the market bounced back to 35,000 the next year.
Larry, would you bet on the same bounce back for 2013?

January 4th, 2013 at 12:50 pm

@l8rdude
different external circumstance – different outcome methinks

January 4th, 2013 at 12:51 pm

@davers

Ha! a typo forgot the YOY. Sorry – corrected.

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