Are you worn out by the harangue purporting an imminent real estate collapse of the Vancouver real estate market? Are you wishing you could just find a quiet place? If so, you may be suffering from real estate ‘bubble fatique?”
Tara Perkins and Brent Jang’s report in yesterday’s Globe and Mail mixed considered opinions with evidence of a small but notable rise in the sales to active listings ratio reported by the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board suggesting both as a cure to ‘bubble fatique’.
Perkins and Jang quote Mr. Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s World Markets economist saying -
- “I think the spring will surprise on the upside.”
- “bubble fatigue may well prove wrong the forecast for dismal sales this spring”
- “People have been talking about a collapse for two years, so many are becoming a bit skeptical about that”
- “As well, rates are in fact going down, not up” – a reference to the Bank of Montreal cutting the price on its five-year, fixed-rate mortgage to 2.99 per cent from 3.09 per cent. “The lowest advertised rate among Canada’s big banks, and lower rates are available in the market.”
- Vancouver sales marked the second lowest level since 2001.
- Greater Toronto is down.
- Calgary saw their sales dip 1.27 per cent.
- “There are signs that the sales slump that has persisted since the middle of last year is nearing an end.”
In addition, the Fitch ratings agency notes that
Green Chair Conclusions
Toronto Dominion’s real estate economist Diana Petramala suggests that
- “national sales have fallen by about 8 per cent since Mr. Flaherty tightened the mortgage insurance rules in July.
- “Our view is that the impact of mortgage insurance rules tends to be very temporary, and lasts for about two to three quarters”
- “we do think we’ll see a bit of a bounce back in sales, particularly heading into the spring period.”
That’s What They Think
What about you?
Do you think there is sufficient spring in the air to generate a slight up tick in Vancouver’s real estate market? Might the Perkins_Jang prescription offer a measured release to “bubble fatique?”
Quotes: Tara Perkins and Brent Jang – The Globe and Mail
Photo Credit: Flickr – Dean Jarvey