Active Listings Pattern

Falling Leaves

If one is looking to find a Real Estate Market pattern you only have to look for autumn leaves falling.

Cron IDX Graphs 2013 07 24

Advance Notice

With the arrival of fall the Total Active Listing count follows an ritual retreat. This year, weather patterns seem to have temporarily slowed the fall of tree leaves. Not so with Active Listings.

RedLeafonground01 Larry Yatkowsky 375 x 240

It is uncertain at this point in time if 2013’s lower Active Listing monthly totals are a precursor of something greater.

Last year, October 9th recorded a total of 26,842 active listings. This year October 9, 2013 recorded a total of 24,084 active listings. On this day in 2011 the total was 24,629 and October 9, 2010 registered a total of 23,289.


The bottom of this annual pattern usually occurs in early January of the following year. 2010’s low was recorded on January 5th 2011, which saw total active listings decline to a low of 13,965. 2011’s low was recorded on January 10th 2012 at 16,381 active listings and 2012’s low was recorded on January 3rd 2013, at 16,486.


If the pattern of past years repeat then reasonable presumption suggests that the Active listing count may drop to the 2011/2012 level of 16,000 + -.

However, to date we have seen 2013 with Active Listings counts below the monthly totals of 2012 and slightly above 2011. With that, it seems possible to conjecture that January 2014’s Total Active Listing count – the summation of 2013, may be less than the recorded low totals for January 2012 and by extension, it’s close cousin January 2011.

Accustomed as we are to autumn’s leaves dropping, one might also assume a pattern of expectation wherein 2013’s lowest Active listing count may generate a total that rivals the low of 2011.

About Larry Yatkowsky

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*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

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