Roses or Thorns You Decide

Predictions

Appearing to be the essence of the British Columbia Real Estate Association’s (BCREA) latest missive supports a view where after hitting bottom anything up must be better or, is it?

Comparing

BCREA News Release 2013 10 15

2012 was a down hill year for Vancouver real estate – some claim the worst in many.

When comparing there is a tendency to look to the worst outcome and take joy in anything that rises above that level.

Of late it appears that some months in 2012 have assumed the position of being the new measured benchmark.

BCREA’s Upward Trajectory Report.

6,498 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during September, up 43.2 per cent from September 2012. Total sales dollar volume was 55.7 per cent higher than a year ago at $3.49 billion. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $537,458, up 8.8 per cent from September 2012.

Cam’s Good News

“Consumer demand for housing in September was the strongest in four years. After declining for most of 2012, BC home sales have increased now for seven consecutive months.”

Cameron Muir, is BCREA’s Chief Economist. It’s probably reasonable to suggest that economists in general are viewed as people who can never win.

Further, it is a plausible assumption that many people blame economists when a market drops. Equally, when a market rises those same people looking for the advantage, blame the economist for not letting them know sooner.

When economists look ahead it reminds me of Edward Weyer Jr.’s observation that “the future is like a corridor into which we can see only by the light coming from behind.”

Bleeding wilted rose

With such limited light economists who foretell the future are in a high risk occupation. It is an occupation where each prediction has attached the word caution.

Cautious Cam

“While a return to a more normal level of demand is good news for buyers and sellers, relatively weak economic conditions and muted provincial job growth will likely limit continued acceleration of home sales over the next few quarters,”

Believe What You Will

As markets fall and climb we seek guidance from those economists supposedly “in the know”. While they deliver what we may perceive as guidance ultimately I am reminded of Anthony Liccione who summarized predictions best by saying: “one can talk good and shower down roses, but it’s the receiver that has to walk through the thorns, and all its false expectations.”

Copyright BCREA used with permission.

About Larry Yatkowsky

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*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

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