Active Listing Totals Dare Us

Predicted

The weather guy predicts snow will be falling soon and secures the prediction on a low pressure cold front that is pushing the Arctic Cold into the lower mainland. On the west coast this is an expected weather pattern in the winter months which coincides with the drop in Active Listings available for sale. The question is always how much snow will actually drop.

Cron IDX Graphs 2013 12 04

How Much

The weather guy usually ventures forth with a prediction of how much snow might fall, to help us with the ensuing calamity of traffic snarls throughout the city. Sometime he is right while at other times it is a reasonable guess based on existing data.

Based on records to date the amount by which Active Listing mandates will drop off the market is reasonably predictable. Usual for this time of year is the rapid decline in the total listing count. Throughout December the fall is rapid. In the past ten days Active Listings have dropped from 22,155 to 20,796, a decent that matches the ‘drop off’ velocity experienced last year.

The difference is in the total numbers. In 2012 during the same 10 day period the total started at 24,375 and dropped to 22,716 – a difference of about 3,500 listings.

Bird House Snow 350 X 500

End of Cycle

The 2012 cycle saw Active Listings reduce to a low of 16,486. In contrast, 2011’s level was more severe with an end of cycle total amounting to 15,444 listings while 2010’s cycle surpassed that total at 13,965.

Will this years Active Listing cycle surpasses the low of 2011? It may be close for on the same day in 2011 total active listings amounted to 20,991 – a amount approximating this years total of 20,796.

Vagaries

Assuming the vagaries that effect a person’s decision to sell their home remains consistent, it seems reasonable to suggest that this cycle will close out with a total active listing count that matches 2011.

Daring

A daring assumption presumes a variance in drop off velocity precipitated by other forces such as current higher sales levels. Sales which were not experienced in 2012 that left listings to languish. However, when combined, the number of current sales and the seasonal drop off may result in the total number of Active listings heading towards an end of cycle figure similar to 2010’s under 14,000 level.

Even more daring is the suggestion that current Average and Median price increases may only be a precursor to yet higher numbers if available inventory is drastically diminished.

Shovel at the Ready

Like the weather man’s prediction there is no absolute certainty that snow will fall and if it does what will be the total accumulation. Equally, there is no certainty that any of the above assumptions will occur. Regardless, if you planning to buy a Vancouver home it may be prudent to have your cheque book ready. Similairly, if you are selling a deposit slip could prove handy. In either event a shovel should be at the ready just in case.

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

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*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

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