50/50 – What are the Odds?

Fifty Fifty Redux

In the recent past, it was suggested that a safe bet on Vancouver Real Estate is that fifty percent of the time you can be right. If you had bet that the Median Prices noted in December would continue to follow a path then this January, you would have lost.

Median Price 2014 02 11 - 4 Areas

Fifty Percent house

Flip Flop

Knowing which Vancouver real estate door to open is tricky. Short term prices flip flop all the time. Consider the past two months where in December Vancouver’s West Side Median price was $2,468,000. In January Median prices flipped downward to $2,380,000.

Similarly, in December West Vancouver recorded $2,144,000 as a Median price only to flop to January’s $1,796,500.

The other 50% of the story is Vancouver East and North Vancouver. Median prices in those communities experienced an up-tick month over month.

The Numbers

Median Price Vancouver West Vancouver East West Vancouver North Vancouver
November $2,285,000 $937,500 $1,882,500 $1,035,000
December $2,468,000 $915,000 $2,144,000 $965,000
January $2,380,000 $920,000 $1,796,500 $1,142,500

Got a Question?

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About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

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*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Boom Says:
February 11th, 2014 at 11:19 pm

As i am sure you have heard the door has been closed on the investor program as announced as part of the 2014 budget. Larry do you think a downturn in prices and a uptick in listings is likely? This could mean sales for you RE pros! Or maybe a flood of listings…..

February 12th, 2014 at 8:18 am

@boom
unfortunately there are no hard statistics telling us how many properties are or have been sold to individuals who gain status under the Feds investor program.
With specific reference to Vancouver real estate:
- does this group constitute a large market changing number? To my knowledge I don’t think anyone knows for certain but I doubt it.
Added to other speculative numbers that have been floated across my desk memory serves that Rudy Nielson of LandCorp came up with a 1% figure. Maybe someone has Rudy’s number at hand to clarify this.

Will there be a blip – sure, but I suspect it will be at the top end of the market for were I to join the speculation it seems this is where this group concentrated their purchases.
As you know, whenever you remove a percentage of buyers from a market there will be a reaction.
Will it equate to “bubble bursting”? Unlikely!
More probable is that some sellers will buy into anticipated media/Realtor hype at their expense.

February 13th, 2014 at 12:51 am

Larry,

Awhile back, you provided a terrific longer term price chart going back to 1977? to July 2012. Any chance of an update to see what it looks like now?

Also – what are total number of sales per year in the lower mainland? Some people are guessing this the immigration loop hole was generating as many as 3,000 purchases per year. What’s the total number per year? 20,000? If so – pulling 15% of purchases out of a bubble market would pop any bubble IMHO….

What do you think? We have been home hunting recently, am I ever glad I held off til AFTER this news to purchase.

Diamond Lou

February 13th, 2014 at 3:23 pm

@louis

responding to this and your other 2 comments –

I remain unclear. I think you are looking at average and median charts. The average goes back to 1977. Median does not and at this time I have no intention of changing it.
As for sales I believe you are low. I need to reconfirm but I think REBGV was over 28,000 and Fraser Valley around 13,000.
Without prejudice I am sorry to say that your numbers make for good scare press.
Thanks for the attaboy. :)

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