Listings May Languish

Behind

According to the Internet Data Exchange (IDX), the total number of listings for the lower mainland appear to be lagging behind last years advance.

Cron IDX Graphs 2014 02 26

February Twenty Six

On this date last year Total Listings recorded on the IDX eclipsed 22,104 listings. Climbing still higher in the months ahead Total Listings accumulated to reach the high of 26,806 in June 2013 down from June 2012’s high of 28,036.

This year on this day the Total Listing count sits a little higher than 2011 and below 2012.

2014 2013 2012 2011
20,593 22,104 21,526 19,322

Turmoil and Projections

Most would agree that the world’s financial health is still in turmoil. Additionally, most would also agree that to our benefit or otherwise, our financial well being continues to be fiddled with by our government. It is probably a safe measure to assume that those things over which we have little control will just as before, continue to affect the real estate market .

But what of this year’s total listing count. At its current level one asks if this could be a precursor of a market change? If the numbers are worth their weight, when compared to other years should we assume that 2014’s listing count will not reach the levels seen in 2012, 2013. Further, if this is an indicator of a change to the market state and if the total number of listings is slowing, can we then apply the over used supply/demand model to suggest that price increases are on their way?

Piece of the Pie

Brickwall Crumbling The Truth is Here

Accepting this assumption you buy in to paying for that low inventory higher priced home. Hooray you think, you are on your way to having a piece of the mythical pie. It’s all good you think until the bank slaps you down.

Having made billions in profits in the years prior they are not satisfied. Now their gaze has set upon your pie.

The slap forces you to catch your breath. While doing so you begin to absorb a counter point to your total listing price assumptions. On the horizon is a new model embedded in the Royal Bank’s recent report claiming higher interest rates are on their way.

Price Double Whammy

Just when you thought you had your cost of home ownership under control you get slapped down again. This time it is a double whammy of low inventory price increases and interest rates increases. Beginning with prices that are barely affordable combining the two makes you wonder if you will ever get that piece of pie.

Brick Walls

Certain is that somewhere behind brick walls rests a truth in prediction.

Not having answers we look through cracks waiting for time to cast its light as we ask if affordability will be determined individually by inventory levels and increased interest rates or will it take the combination to place sales on hold and in so doing temper prices and ultimately leave listings to languish?

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

Slow Sales Says:
March 1st, 2014 at 8:54 am

Banks making record profits, CC stocks at record highs…it’s not so easy to get a mortgage these days, people are tapped out it’s only a matter of time before SHTF

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