Vancouver’s Average Price Addiction

Couch Potatoes

In July Attached sales were down 20%. Apartment Sales 7% and that pinnacle of all things good in Vancouver the Detached home, had sales down 30%.

Are we to assume that Vancouver home Buyers can no longer take it. Have they decided to battle their addiction choosing instead to sit on their couches and watch the greatest real estate show on earth?

Average Price 1977 – 2016

2016-08-01-Average-PriceYattermatters – Average Price July 2016

Vancouver Real Estate Average Numbers

Detached Attached Apartment
July 16 – $1,764,682
+25%
July 16 – $782,529
+27%
July 16 – $573,759
+19%
July 15 – $1,403,632 July 15 – $626,448 July 15 – $481,040

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory – Active Listings

Detached Attached Apartment
July 16 – 4,833
+ 4%
July 16 – 1,031
-30%
July 16 – 2,487
-53%
July 15 – 4,614 July 15 – 1,492 July 15 – 5,399

Vancouver Real Estate – Units Sold

Detached Attached Apartment
July 16 – 1,083
-30%
July 16 – 547
-20%
July 16 – 1,603
– 7%
July 15 – 1,564 July 15 – 690 July 15 – 1,729

*Percentage = YOY

Self Medicating

Vancouver’s Detached Homes inventory increased 16% however, the average home price temperature fell as average prices tumbled downward.

The number of new to market Attached increased 5% but that was not enough to reduce the Total Active Listings which are down 30%. Equally, new Apartment Listings fell short – down 11%, adding to an astounding overall Total Active Listing shortfall of 53% rendering an assumption that the lack of product pushed prices higher.

Drug Tax

Drug-(1)

Will the 15% tax drug work? How will this tax motivate Attached and Apartment sellers who represent about 50% of the total market to sell their homes. In some induced dream will this somehow make housing affordable?

Most discussions around the B.C. Foreign National Tax appear to have abandoned this notion focusing instead on the Detached home market which at this point, appears to self medicating – prior to tax inventory up with prices down.

I remain skeptical that a 20% Detached home price drop, a massive increase in Attached/Apartment inventory or the 15% new market drug tax will help bridge the gap to help buyers find the motivation to get up off the couch. Increased incomes might be a better option.

Cynicism suggests that the new Foreign National 15% tax is in reality a government addiction rather than a real solution.

About Larry Yatkowsky

Larry is a recognized real estate expert. A veteran professional, his experienced counsel leads Vancouverites in his west side community to place their trust in a man passionate about his work. Uncompromising ethics bring a balanced approach to realizing your real estate dreams.

When Life Moves You - contact Larry:

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Reader Comments:

canuck Says:
August 1st, 2016 at 2:05 pm

First sentence, I think you mean “attached”, rather than “condos?

August 1st, 2016 at 2:11 pm

@Canuck
corrected. Thanks

Newcomer Says:
August 1st, 2016 at 11:21 pm

Thanks for the numbers!

Darren Downs Says:
August 2nd, 2016 at 3:28 am

Frankly. If the market falls by 50% – that will be a good think – Especially the detached market. Anyone who bought in the past 5 years had to know the risk and anyone who has owned for longer, has made a good return already. There will be damage but not any that people should not have been aware of.

We are starting to see the beginning of some type of correction – we just don’t know how far it will go. – but it is about time.

lookout Says:
August 3rd, 2016 at 8:06 am

Greed rang this up. ..now fear which us a stronger emotion will rung it down a few steps. Remember things overshoot going up and then back down again. Me thinks next summer will be down 25%

August 3rd, 2016 at 8:22 am

@Darren,
50% though remote will still out price a great number of people. What is more troubling is if does decline 50% the multiplier of that event will leave a lot of people will be out of work which to my mind is a zero sum.

August 3rd, 2016 at 8:24 am

@ lookout
I’ve heard this “greed” word a lot of times. Seriously I think most sellers were surprised at the increase. Is it fair to say they didn’t anticipate this when they bought a number of years ago?

Purr purr jones Says:
August 7th, 2016 at 5:45 am

I agree Darren, 50% min would be good. It’s time to “reset” expectations for real estate and treat it as a place to live vs. Commodity. Hugh missallocation of resources and money flowing to RE vs the rest of the economy for far too long. RE is the only thing propping up the economy at the moment and that’s not a good thing. Only way to fix it is a massive 50% correction. Painful when it happens but it will cleanse the system and everyone will be better off in the long run. Boom/ Busts …happened before and will happen again – it’s healthy. Get your popcorn out!

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