During the past 30 day period, a snapshot of the detached market activity in Dunbar a Vancouver neighbourhood, saw ask/sold prices that seem to parallel a pattern seen in some west side communities.

In the period covering February 28 to April 28, the Dunbar experienced the following market activity.

Listings

Total Listings declined from February/March’s 92 to March/April’s 85.

Sales

Sales decreased from February/March’s 30 to 22 in March/April.

Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market

• March/April saw 3 listing mandates expire. There were 2 in February/March.
• Price reductions in February/March were 16 while in March/April it was 11.
• There were 6 price increases in February/March and only 4 in March/April.
• It took 11 days to sell a home in March/April compared to 21 February/March.

Average and Median Prices

February/March’s Average Ask price dropped from $1,764,296 to March/April’s $1,499,409. The Median Ask price in February/March was $1,643,000 and also dropped to $1,518,500 March/April.

The Average Sold price in the March/April was $1,539,381. This was a healthy reduction from February/March’s price of $1,769,343. The Median Sold prices reacted similarly with February/March’s $1,617,500 reducing to March/April’s $1,525,500.

Reflections

It appears that all market variables on the west side and in particular Dunbar, have entrenched into a slowing pattern.

Perhaps Tsur Somerville says it best – “rich foreigners are not driving up the rest of the market. It doesn’t mean a whole hill of beans for the rest of us. Rich people are buying very expensive houses now, and are not driving up prices for the rest of us.”

The Dunbar neighbourhood average prices jumped in this last period.

Total Listings Steady

Jan/Feb’s 72 total listings were matched in Feb/Mar.

Sales

The number of homes sold in Jan/Feb dropped by one in Feb/Mar to settle at 24.

Reductions, Increases, Expired, Days on Market

Price reductions were on the rise in Feb/Mar ending up at 8 from Jan/Feb’s 4. Increases stayed level at 4 while expired mandates increase from 1 to 2.

On average, it took a little longer to sell a home in Dunbar rising from 18 to 23 days in the Feb/Mar period.

Prices

Subject to skewing, the average Ask prices in Jan/Feb were lower at $1,691,200, then climbed to Feb/Mar’s $1,823,041. The Average Sell prices followed the same path with Jan/Feb’s $1,682,292 climbing to Feb/Mar’s $1,820,429.

Median Ask prices in Jan/Feb were higher at $1,698,000 dropping to Feb/Mar’s $1,693,000. Median Sold prices matched this pattern dropping from Jan/Feb’s $1,739,800 to Feb/Mar’s $1,655,000.

Thoughts

Feb/Mar’s Median Sold prices dropped 0.95% in the past 60 day period.

Though a small sample of the entire market, the question asked is – with price reductions on the rise, fewer sales, and a longer period to sell accompanied by downward leaning median sale prices, can one assume that Dunbar and other possibly other west side neighbourhoods are leading the expected change in the Vancouver real estate market?

Neighbourhood Tales

As a spectator with interest, it has been fascinating to review the state of the real estate market via a selection of neighourhoods in this our city – Vancouver. On the eve of seeing the bench mark end of the month stats, which at this writing are mere hours away, the need to review those posts to re-evaluate what appears to be mixed bag of plus and minus changes in market state.

Far be it from this author’s ability to answer the why, or what caused the different outcomes within each neighbourhood. Rest assured your opinion will be as valid as those of others.

Forever

My flat-lander friend and superb REALTOR®, Norm Fisher, from Saskatoon posted a comment some days back wherein he said: “So, this isn’t going to go on forever?”

“I have to admit that I’m feeling a bit unsettled. Lately, some of the die hard bears I know have been buying while many of the biggest bulls seem to be kind of worried. When the people who live to pump the market start sending out warnings…it’s like we’re living in Backwardsville.”

Coming from Norm this statement was a an eye opener. The Saskatoon market is of course, smaller than Vancouver’s but, it is a Canadian heartland of sort. Hearing that Norm was looking for the pulse was unusual. It triggered a quest to find Vancouver’s pulse by delving into neighbourhood market microcosms. Suffice to say that in some neighbourhoods the pulse was weak while in others, it remains strong.

Finding the Vein

Prior to the bench mark month end numbers being released time permitted a last look at the Dunbar neighbourhood. For those familiar this community, in the majority, it rests on high ground. Historically men have always run to high ground in times of natural disasters such as floods and attacks from warring factions. So it is that the high ground of Dunbar joins Kerrisdale, to once again provide safe cover.

Dunbar 30 Days

The period of September 30, 2009 to October 30, 2009 recorded 25 sales and registered an Average Sold price of $1,473,160 with a Median Sold price of $1,338,000. Moving to still higher ground Dunbar during the period of October 31, 2009 to November 30, 2009 recorded 19 sales with an Average Sold price of $1754,894 and a Median Sold price of $1,630,000. During this period there were 10 price reductions.

Numbers

FOR SALE

EXPIRED

SOLD

HIGH/LOW

Pulse Synopsis

While strong in some neighbourhoods – Dunbar, Kerrisdale, (there may be others), Pt. Grey and a few neighbourhoods in parts of the east side, North Vancouver and West Vancouver all exhibited pulses that by comparison seemed more faint.

Pulse checks while important, sometimes belie the over all health of a patient. What remains will be to see the patient dancing in December.

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Dunbar 30 Days

High ground has traditionally been a good place to save you from floods and attacks. The high ground of Dunbar has held its market relatively steady for the past 60 days. Sept/Oct saw 22 sales registered compared to Oct/Nov’s 18. In keeping, Total Listings decreased in the neighbourhood down 4 from Sept/Oct’s 66

As with many neighbourhoods the Average and Median Sold prices experienced an increase. Sept/Oct Average Sold Price of $1,470,504 rose just a bit to Oct/Nov’s $1,472,222. In similar fashion Sept/Oct’s Median Sold Price of $1,391,000 took a small step u to Oct/Nov’s $1,405,000.

Most notable is that what may be the lowest price house in the Dunbar neighbourhood did not sell during its listing mandate.

Numbers

FOR SALE

EXPIRED

SOLD

HIGH/LOW

Gossip

Quick coffee with high volume mortgage broker who says applications have slowed. Reason – no inventory to choose from suggesting that current product on the market holds little interest for buyers, in short – no bang for the buck.

Dunbar 30 Days

Dunbar seems to be slowing down. It appears the summer’s heat melted home sales in Dunbar. This past 30 day period Aug 15 to Sept 14 2009 witnessed the number of homes sold drop by almost with only 13 sales compared to July 15 to Aug 14 period’s 22. That’s not 50% but, it’s close. There were 5 price reductions it was balanced by 5 price increases. Expired listings increase by one during this most recent period. Average list prices increased substantially from July/Aug’s $1,645,500 to Aug/Sept’s $1,895,376.

Bucking the overall market, Dunbar’s Active listings – ‘homes for sale’, stayed flat at 44 but the total number of listings registered, dropped from 69 to 61. Both Active Average and Median listing price remained constant.

Numbers

FOR SALE

EXPIRED

SOLD

HIGH/LOW

Outlook

Concern in the general market is that the Active listings will continue to scale back. Odds anticipate this may be one element that will continue to drive prices higher due to limited inventory.

A more certain gamble is that you can expect it will snow this winter.

Dunbar 30 Days

We have experienced two flaming hot conditions recently in Vancouver Real Estate. First, was an exploding market that began with the announcement in March of historically low mortgage interest rates and second, this weeks excessively hot summer temperature.

With a certain irony this picture of Dunbar’s Memorial Park in the snowy portion of last winter, reflects what is occurring to the Dunbar neighbourhood real estate market and soon, according to the meteorologists, to our weather. In parallel both will are expected to cool.

Dunbar Detached real estate during the past 30 day period of July 30,2009 to June 30,2009 experienced a drop in Total Listings, and Sales. Notably May/June’s median selling price of $1,420,500 was lower than June/July’s median of $1,484,000. Yet during these periods, the number of sales dropped more than 50% from 32 in May/June to June/July’s 14 sales.

With total listings dropping from 91 to 72 this may be an indication that the market is tightening which from a simple point of view, would explain the median price increase – short supply, higher price. Because you can always be 50% right in this business, the reduced number of Dunbar homes for sale may also be a reflection of the lazy days of summer. Expect this to continue till the fall for unless sellers are truly motivated, it’s just a lot easier and more fun to BBQ at home.

Numbers

FOR SALE

EXPIRED

SOLD

HIGH/LOW

Outlook

A little trouble might be ahead if the listing total continues to drop. While this may be a driver to higher prices, at some point the perceived value and affordability will step up and grind sales. Somewhere in that mix the market will settle down. It’s unlikely that it will happen during the next month or two. Summer real estate projections are often heat-haze affected. Variables such as, holidays and children at home, play a part in sellers determining their futures.

Odds are that you can predict that it will snow next winter – how much is the question.

Dunbar 30 Days

Dunbar Detached real estate during the past 30 day period of May 30 to June 29, 2009 showed a little gusto in average sale price increasing from $1,415,420 to $1,465,832. The Median Sale price matched this bump rising $1,231,000 to $1,348,000. At the low end, which in other cities in Canada would be considered very high, a home on King Edward sold for $750,000. Price reductions also decreased from 14 to 11 properties. Overall, the May to June period saw some happy sellers in Dunbar.

Numbers

FOR SALE

EXPIRED

SOLD

HIGH/LOW

Outlook

Homes have been flying off the shelf with sales in this neighbourhood. Like the snow fall in Dunbar’s Memorial Park hiding the fallen leaves, this season of high market activity will see a snowfall where the number of quality listings available for sale will be at a minimum.

Many buyers have stretched their wings using incredibly low interest rates as air. What hides under the snow of low rates will appear with the thaw of rates increasing. It will be an interesting spring! Will the market pace continue? It seems improbable in the near term and suspect is that by the end of summer change in the market place will ensue as reason prevails, regardless of the mortgage rate.

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.

**Numbers may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Dunbar 30 Days

Dunbar Detached real estate during the past 30 day period of April 26 to May 26,2009 experienced a slight decrease in total listings from 94 down to 83. Median sold price decreased while the number of expires dropped from 7 to 3. Solds dropped from 29 to 22. Prices are still settling with 22 price reductions taking place during this period.

Numbers

FOR SALE

EXPIRED

SOLD

HIGH/LOW

Lowest Sold Price In Dunbar – $795,000

Highest Sold Price In Dunbar – $2,630,000

Outlook

In parts of the city first time buyers are stretching their wings in the current market. Dunbar had 7 fewer sales in the last 30 day period with the lower price levels in good condition being snapped up. As commented upon by many news outlets the interest rates are having a stabilizing effect. Street rumor has it that a great number of the properties that have sold experienced multiple offers. Looking forward it is anticipated that the market will continue in this fashion for the balance of the year.

Dunbar 30 Days

Dunbar Detached real estate during the past 30 day period of March 16, 2009 to April 15,2009 experienced a slight increase in the number of active listings matching the historical spring rush. Of interest is that the average and median prices increased. Sales however, remained flat. Prices are still finding their level with 30 price reductions taking place in this period.

Sellers appear amenable to adjust their selling price as both median and average sale prices have dropped with substantial savings for buyers.

Numbers

FOR SALE

EXPIRED

SOLD

HIGH/LOW

Lowest Sold Price In Dunbar – $810,000

Highest Sold Price In Dunbar – $2,018,000

Outlook

Buyers are finding new confidence in lower interest rates being offered by the banks. While they are realizing interest savings they continue to seek sellers who are prepared to negotiate prices much lower than asking. Looking forward it is expected that this type of activity will continue.

Dunbar 30 Days

Dunbar Detached real estate during the past 30 day period of February 19, 2009 to March 21,2009 experienced a slight decrease in the number of active listings. The anticipated spring blush of sales has in this market snapshot not materialized. Of interest is that the average and median prices increased a little however, the sales decreased by one. Sellers are still trying to find that magic price that will entice buyers to choose their home as the one to buy. Sellers are still searching for the price floor as is evidenced by 30 price reductions taking place during this period.

Those sellers who have sold appear to have been willing to adjust their selling price further as both median and average sale prices when comparison to the before sale asking price have dropped, giving way to substantial savings to aggressive buyers.

Numbers

FOR SALE

EXPIRED

SOLD

HIGH/LOW

Outlook

Buyers are finding new confidence in lower interest rates being offered by the banks. While they are realizing interest savings they continue to seek sellers who are prepared to negotiate prices much lower than asking. Looking forward it is expected that this type of activity will continue.

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed. MLS pictures courtesy of REBGV

**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.