A Snapshot of the local Fraser detached home market may be an example of what we can generally expect of the Vancouver real estate market in the months ahead.

In the period April 15, 2010 to June 14, 2010 detached properties in the Fraser neighbourhood had the following results.

Listings

Total Listings declined from April/May’s 79 to May/June’s 69.

Sales

Sales decreased by almost half from April/May’s 14 to 8 in May/June.

Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market

• April/May had 6 listing mandates expire reducing to 1 in May/June.
• Price reductions in April/May were 15 decreasing to 13 in May/June.
• There were no price increases in either period.
• It took an average of 12 days to sell a home in April/May and 17 in May/June.

Average and Median Prices

47th and Knight 1966 – CVA 780-381

• Total Listings Average Ask price in April/May was $799,000. In May/June it was $831,778.
• Total Listings Median Ask price in April/May was $799,000 dropping to $789,000 in May/June.
• April/May’s Average Ask price of Sold Listings was $761,985 increasing to May/June’s $783,625.
• The Median Ask price of Sold Listings in April/May was $718,500 which then dropped to $699,000 in May/June.
• The Average Sold price in the April/May was $778,607. In May/June this increased to $789,112.
• The Median Sold price in April/May was $728,000. In May/June this decreased to $693,500.

Bag with a Hole

The Fraser neighourhood in this past 60 day period appears to be holding ground though there is a average and median price hole that formed in the last 30 days which is slowly letting the air out of this neighbourhood market.

A Snapshot of the local Fraser detached home market has had a revival with average and median prices showing small gains in the prior 60 days.

In the period covering March 25 to May 25, detached properties in the Fraser neighbourhood experienced the following market activity.

Listings

Total Listings declined from March/April’s 82 to April/May’s 70.

Sales

Sales decreased by half from March/April’s 20 to 10 in April/May.

Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market

• March/April had 7 listing mandates expire dropping to 5 in the April/May period.
• Price reductions in March/April were 13 remaining the same in April/May.
• There were 0 price increases in both periods.
• It took an average of 11 days to sell a home in March/April and 13 in April/May.

Average and Median Prices

• March/April’s Average Ask price increased from $742,635 to April/May’s $756,679.
• The Median Ask price in March/April was $718,500 increasing to $734,000 in April/May.

• The Average Sold price in the April/May was $776,165. This was a bump up from March/April’s average sold price of $764,742.

• The Median Sold prices reacted similarly with March/April’s price of $754,500 increasing to April/May’s $760,500.

Observation

Contrary to predictions, Vancouver’s Fraser is on a positive note. The number of listings appear to have settled from previous highs. The dramatic drop in sales is of concern should this drop continue into the next 60 days. What remains to be seen is if this is the classic case of the summer doldrums beginning early or worse, is this market drying up?

During the past 60 day period, detached homes in the east side’s Fraser community had a 16.3% increase in median sold prices.

In the period covering February 10 to April 9, the Fraser neighbourhood experienced the following market activity.

Listings

Total Listings increased from February/March’s 54 to 60 in March/April.

Sales

There were 14 sales in both the February/March and March/April periods.

Expired, Reductions, Increases, Days on Market

• March/April saw 6 listing mandates expire, up from 2 in February/March.
• Price reductions increased to 6 from February/March’s 4.
• Price increases dropped to zero in March/April from February/March’s single price increase.
• It took longer to sell a home in March/April. Days on Market in February/March were 15 compared to March/April’s 21.

Average and Median Prices

February/March’s Average Ask price recorded $705,564 increasing to March/April’s $782,457. The Median Ask price in February/March was $689,000 and increased to $794,000 in March/April.

The Average Sold price recorded in February/March was $708,500 increasing to March/April’s Average Selling price of $799,800. The Median sold prices followed the average prices with February/March recording $698,000 rising to March/April’s $812,000.

50% Right Some of the Time

The detached homes in the Fraser neighbourhood have experienced a sizeable increase in prices in the last 60 days. The price increase relative to the number of homes sold suggests something akin to ‘too fast too soon’ or a market that is somewhat irrational.

The weeks ahead will determine if the irrationality evolves into chaos or as anticipated in January a new level of market value has been reached for this neighbourhood.

Fraser Detached real estate during the current past 30 day period Dec. 14,2009 to Jan. 13,2010 compared to the previous 30 day Nov. 14,2009 to Dec. 14,2009 period saw Total Listings increase by one from 32 to 33. There were no expired listing mandates in the Nov/Dec period. Dec to Jan saw 7 mandates expired with 1 Canceled listing. A loose interpretation is that from December was a month where almost half of the Active listings (those available for sale) sold. These sales numbers coincide with BCREA’s proclamation that December was the second highest month of sales in 20 years.

Steady as She Goes

The neighborhood’s Average SOLD prices were quite steady rounding out in the mid $770,000 mark.

Casual observation suggests that the continuing shortage of listings prevails due to the fact that the number of solds has increased. In short, December’s listing bucket emptied as fast as it was getting filled. At this point the smaller number of sales may change that scene.

Settled

Comparing the Average and Median prices for these two periods in the market suggests that the Fraser area is in harmony – both measures have held steady. As Buyers and Sellers it’s nice to find some stress relief in knowing what you might expect to pay or sell for.

Numbers

FOR SALE

EXPIRED

SOLD

HIGH/LOW

Say It Again

It bears repeating that the Fraser neighborhood may be the ‘next big thing’ as it is beginning to offer more amenities. The hole is in the ground with the new complex at 28th and Fraser, the French restaurant (Le Faux Bourgeous)is almost at reservation only status. Fierce 24 hour competition for a great cup of coffee is a little further up the street at Brecca at 49th and Fraser. In the area and need a quick bite to eat? Then you should try this place out. The service is fast and friendly but be prepared to wait for a seat.

Those who find the Main corridor just beyond their price range should check the Fraser neighborhood. Just south of 33rd above the park, you will find some fabulous view properties, that is, if they are for sale. Lots of character homes are in this neighborhood if that is what you are looking for. If you find a place much below the hill south and north of 16th be sure to ask your agent about the bog. The city has a map that outlines the bog’s perimeters and it’s important to know how solid the ground is beneath your home. The map you want is called the Peat, Assorted Soils and Historical Waterways. If you like, you can always give me a call if you are uncertain.

Commuting is drop dead simple. Hop on the King Edward bus and you connect to Skytrain at Cambie. From there city or the airport are minutes away.

Fraser 30 and 60 Days

Fraser Detached real estate during the current past 30 day period Sept 22 to Oct 22,2009 compared to the previous 30 day Aug 22 to Sept 22, 2009 period saw Total Listings drop from to 43 to 38. Part of that drop was the increase in expired listing rising from 0 to 3 and 2 Canceled listings. A loose interpretation is that from Aug/Sept period to Sept/Oct not everything is rosy in the Fraser neighbourhood as sales dipped from 11 to 2.

Higher Levels

The neighbourhood Average SOLD prices ripped their way to higher levels. From Aug/Sept’s $935,000 they shot UP to Sept/Oct’s $1,075,000. Why?

There appears to be some pressure building from the buyers wanting to be near the action of Main street. The Fraser neighbourhood may be the ‘next big thing’ as it is beginning to offer more amenities. With the new complex at 28th and Fraser, a great French restaurant (Le Faux Bourgeous), and one of the better bakeries in the city where you can get a great bowl of borsch, things in this neighbourhood are starting to look up. Much like the sleepy and tired Main street strip of 20 years ago, the Fraser strip may I suspect, be at the earliest stages of a revival. Commuting is drop dead simple. Hop on the King Edward and you connect to Skytrain at Cambie. From there city or airport are minutes away.

Hold On

A note of caution. If you think you want to buy in the neighbourhood you would be wise to visit city hall and pick up a map called Peat, Assorted Soils and Historical Waterways. Failing that, give me a call for further information. Some of spots in the area have bogs. An obvious section is between Main and Fraser around 16th to 28th. It is quite nasty. A drive down 16th and 17th will tell you all you need to know about the effect a bog will have on a house.

Balance

Normally some reason to the Average is achieved by looking at the Median, however, Median SOLD prices in Aug/Sept showed up at $716,500 whereas Sept/Oct’s came in at $990,000 – quite a jump!

Will this settle down? Smarter people are trying to figure it out. Rest assured they will let us know.

Numbers

FOR SALE

EXPIRED

SOLD

HIGH/LOW

Outlook

For some the winds of fortune and higher prices blew in Aug/Sept. Noticed in Sept/Oct, is the slowing in sales and the increase in the Expired and Canceled listings. Has the edge of a flat earth come into site or will the continued low interest rates ramp up the Fraser sales yet again?

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.

**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.