©YatterMatters – PNE Wheels of Steel

Hmmm? Sellers might think that the Cameron Muir, BCREA’S in house economist, is back on the kool-aid as he proclaims that a 57% drop in sales is nothing more than a whimper?

With numbers like this, sellers of Vancouver homes are more likely to think brutal, catastrophic, or something akin to the holocaust. At a 57% drop, what they see is the chance of selling their home reach the cup half empty level. While prices across the province have reached the -9% level, in the “big smoke” it is far worse. Muir himself stated an 11% decline since March of 08. Other scholars of prediction suggest the potential for a further 14% in ’09. In March of 08 the same scholar stated that “unprecedented housing market expansion will continue into 2009, as economic fundamentals and market conditions remain conducive to high sales volumes and rising prices.” The river flows and sellers today are watching the currents sweep away their personal wealth. It’s unlikely they view this as a “whimper”.

Sluggish Malaise

Quoting Muir: “Home sales were sluggish in January, reflecting an overall malaise in consumer confidence.” claiming the “large selection of homes” as the reason. Considered thought suggests that he has probably presupposed that buyers are also blithely ignoring the opportunity of a life time to jump in while the market is down.

The Reality

As heard on the street from banker types – banks are financing very few new mortgages. Instead, they are very busy packaging consolidation loans and refinancing current mortgages to lower rates.

Bravado aside, this real estate market and global financial issues has made both buyers and Vancouver home owners alert and concerned about their personal financial welfare. Both are looking at their debt loads and trying to minimize the current daily impact of their previous spending largesse. The street rumor strongly implies improbable that they would consider assuming more debt through the acquisition of a new home.

Reality Sucks

What is very real is the possibility that they may not have a job next week? According to current CUCBC circulars, “personal bankruptcies are up 42%. They are a “lagging indicator of broad measures of economic output, and further increases are likely in the coming months.” For many, this is a valid concern that Muir calls “an ever worsening economy.” From painter to candle stick maker everybody is watching to see where the economic chips fall. Within this perspective, few if any, are prepared to consider purchasing a home.

Change Afoot

Muir’s malaise suggests a vague, unfocussed, discomfort that some propose is remedied by assuming more debt with the purchase of a home. Instead, it is not a malaise at all. Rather it is a changed dynamic that is afoot where buyers and home owners are just saying no more debt! It reflects the statement that as the current “economic recession continues to deepen, small comfort can be taken from the fact that we are running up debt less quickly than before.”

It’s seems that Muir has misunderstood the new dynamic as “reports of an increasing number of consumers shopping for a home have yet to materialize in the sales statistics.” His rationale is that “The large selection of homes for sale in January likely reduced any sense of urgency for potential home buyers to commit to a purchase.” A greater possibility is that they can’t afford to buy.

It Looks Like

Counter to Muir’s lacking statistics is my visual reference exemplifying the lack of buyers. Unable to afford a ticket, the empty buyer seats full in seasons prior, now hear only the shrill whimper of Vancouver’s housing market’s winter wind!

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I’m always happy to answer your Vancouver Real Estate question. Call or send me an email Twitter or Skype me at YatterMatters.

Larry

*Disclaimer: GRAPH Courtesy BCREA. While believed to be accurate it’s representation is not guaranteed.

©2009 Tris Hussey – with permission

A benefit of being a Vancouver Realtor is meeting many interesting people with diverse interests.

Vancouver’s Photo Spotlight is an extension of that benefit.

There are a number of Vancouver photographers who do exceptional work with their cameras in capturing life’s moments. Tris Hussey is one of them.

About Tris

He is a long-time blogger and social media expert, who got his start in tech running laboratories and doing tech support. After years of launching websites for the pharmaceutical industry, Tris jumped into blogging on a whim and hasn’t stopped. One of Canada’s first professional bloggers, he is recognized as a leading expert in both social media and business blogging.

Tris continues to charge ahead pushing the edges of social media with whatever new technology catches his eye. His talents and skills are sought by many as a guest blogger on leading blogs including ZDNet. Already busy, Tris is also writing an introduction to blogging book due out in mid-2009.

A photographer for 30 years, he began taking pictures with a Polaroid. His camera of choice today is a DSLR.

Time Stop

Tris captured this moment aboard a Tall Ship. This photo of a line laid out, is beautiful in it’s purposeful simplicity. Quick service demands use without the impediment of knots. Laying it in this manner ensures the purpose.

No Knots

If you are thinking of selling visualize this photo. The reference within matches the purpose of a marketing plan for the sale of your Vancouver home. As with the layout of the line, a plan, ensures your selling experience will be ready quick, and knot free.

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I’m always happy to answer your Vancouver Real Estate question. Call or send me an email Twitter or Skype me at YatterMatters.

Larry

*** Find more of Tris’work at Smugshot.***

Rudolph Gets Ready

It’s only 4 days until Santa and his reindeer start on their annual trek. Sixteen thousand three hundred and forty-three sellers hope Santa will be kind this year and fill their Vancouver real estate stockings with goodness, cheer and a sale or two.

Icicles

Checking the board’s statistical list to see who has been naughty and who has been nice, generated results that rival our record cold snap. There is a lot of frost on the page.

Empty Stockings

Detached, Attached and Apartment sales are in an icy grip with Gross Sales down 64 percent. Compared to last year’s 1904 units, this year’s stocking is holding 688 sales.

Taking Your Lumps

Checking the list twice, it is clear that this year, many Seller’s stockings will only be getting a lump of coal.

We regret to inform you.

In the past 12 days, the Vancouver west side detached real estate market died.

Say It Ain’t So

Each day, the blushing love for Vancouver’s west side real estate faded. A total of twelve days evidenced statistical blood lying on the floor of high priced glories past. The suffering unparalleled, cried out for Buyers.

White Screen Blue Screen

The news came as a flash of white. Personal computers were once notorious for flashing an ominous Blue Screen when something died. In disbelief you’d sit numbed by the color as your brain formed expletives that rhymed with Water The Flowers.

Today, the Board statistics were the message. Vancouver west side detached solds were a white screen. No reason, no details, no numbers, just white!

Everything Seemed Ok

Previous check-ups showed local economics in place, people shopping for Christmas, Vancouver 2010 Olympics going forward, people working, lights turning on, iPhones taking calls, but no buyers for West Side homes!

Telling Emptiness

During the past 12 days, Vancouver West’s detached 968 listings recorded zero sales.

Buyer Pulse

Without buyers, the rose bled, left without a pulse. For 12 days, Buyers abandoned purchasing Vancouver West homes leaving only recorded statistics marking time of death.

A Cycle

Some say a rose’s beauty is immortal and survives adversity. Then like the Phoenix, these 12 days are but a cycle, from which the rose will rise once again as Buyers return to grasp it’s beauty.

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I’m always happy to answer your Vancouver Real Estate question? Call or send me an email Twitter or Skype me at YatterMatters.

Larry

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Worts

The Vancouver Real Estate market has a wort on it’s nose. It’s ugly, it’s not going away, and it’s anticipated that the numbers coming out of the fog will be worse than September’s.

Omens

The bewitching trend continues the slippery slide downward with the path forward darkened by unlit candles.

Screams

Halloween may be more noisy this year with the hollow screams of Vancouver’s West Side home owners who realize that substantial price reductions have little affect on sales that are countered by listings which bubble upward to froth at the brim.

Vancouver West Treats

Total Listings	1161
Sold	30
Expired	116
Price Reductions	480
Sold DOM	47
Average List Price (000′s)	$2,063,900
Average Sold Price (000′s)	$1,540,300
Median List Price (000′s)	$1,649,000
Median Sold Price (000′s)	$1,632,000

Trick

Beware those who offer candied apples with sprinkles. For while the numbers may appear to be a spell cast by a screeching witch, be clear in your vision. The TRICK is to understand that they are the new reality of the Vancouver Real Estate market.

I’m always happy to answer your Vancouver Real Estate question? Call or send me an email Twitter or Skype me at YatterMatters.

Larry

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Transpose George Washington with HM Queen Elizabeth on multi-colored currency and you’ll get the picture. It is meant to depict the state of our local Vancouver Real Estate Market. No, it’s not a dream. Yes, the sound you think you are hearing is the right one.

It would be nice to deliver some bright sunny news, but that news may be at the other end of the pipe attached to this porcelain bowl. The latest numbers from the board are not pretty and serve to confirm the path traveled since the beginning of this year.

Considering all the other news from the south and east this might just be the time to reach for the Tylenol.

On The Bright Side

Yes there is one! There are homes selling, just not as many!

On the “could it be worse scale”, the positive is that we really do have a much stronger banking system. This single aspect of our financial system serves us well in that while we will hurt a bit we won’t suffer the extent of pain and financial catastrophe being endured by our southern neighbors. It’s times like these when being a Canadian is defining our difference.

According To

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

Highlights

Detached Sales

Apartment Sales

Attached Sales

Dave Says:

“After five years of unprecedented increases, housing prices are beginning to realign,” REBGV president, Dave Watt said. “Although the economic situation in the United States has affected consumer confidence globally, the consensus view remains that our local housing market is underpinned by solid economic fundamentals.”

I Say:

I like Dave he’s a smart nice guy. I guess I’m a bit cranky because I have taken exception to his words! Dave, doesn’t “realign” mean down? Isn’t the meaning of down the opposite of “unprecedented increase”. Come on Dave, DOWN, while not as nice, is more to the point. Stop the BS please. I agree that truth in plain talk can be brutal, but it’s time for straight talk. Real Estate is full of it most of the time, and with world conditions such as they are we need clarity from our leaders.

If the consensus you speak of is really a consensus, then it must be a consensus bereft of this board’s statistical facts. These numbers show a market continuing it’s slide.

Seeking reason in Dave’s statement one asks if in fact the “underpinning” he speaks of has unpinned the Vancouver Market?

Perhaps Evan Esar had it right when he said:
Statistics: The only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions.

What do You Say

Flush with opinion? What do you really think of this market? Just remember, YatterMatters is a family channel.

Got a Vancouver Real Estate question? Always happy to answer it. Call or send me an email, Twitter or Skype me at YatterMatters.

Larry

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Flickr: Vancouver Real Estate 1954 02

Flickr: Vancouver Real Estate 1954 01

Flickr: Vancouver Real Estate 1954 03

That Was Interesting

About a week ago in the Once Upon a Time post I talked about Vancouver Real Estate prices in 1988.

Tea Cups

After that post one of my readers, Mila Wong, Mortgage Specialist at the Scotia Bank at Broadway and MacDonald called to say that the post sparked her memory of a box that had hidden itself in her house.

She related that inside were Tea Cups formerly belonging to an elderly relative. As she told the story, she remembered that they were wrapped in newspaper but wasn’t sure about the paper’s publication date.

Revisiting the formerly hidden box, she found that the tea cups were well protected wrapped in newspaper from the Vancouver Sun. Her pleasant surprise, the wrapping was the classified Real Estate section of Vancouver Sun‘s homes for sale dated January 12, 1954.

FRAGILE Handle With Care

The paper by now was well beyond brittle approaching parchment texture. She told me that she carefully, very carefully, unwrapped a few cups of which we see the scanned result of her efforts. She graciously offered the paper to me with the hope that it might be of interest to take yet a further look back into Vancouver Real Estate history.

Not Often

You can spend hours at the public library or city archives searching for this type information. It’s not often that you are lucky to have someone drop it in your lap. It’s nice to know that others recognize such simple value and who are prepared to make the effort to pass their good fortune along so that other might share. That’s community.

Salery Commensurate

I suspect that with these prices the saleries of the day were commensurate with the prices. While it may have been just as difficult to save up and buy a home back in 1954 it seems unlike today’s market place.

I’m speculating, but I think young people today, have a much harder time of it. Got a story about your ability or desire to buy a home? Others need to know. Maybe even a politician or two.

Got a Vancouver Real Estate question? Always happy to answer it. Call or send me an email or twitter me @yattermatters.

Larry

*DISCLAIMER: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary from others available as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Flickr John/Jane

when a sign on a door transmits the wrong message.

JIFFY JOHN

It wasn’t hard to find this twisted message gem. Facing directly to the sidewalk, it stared at me in original hand writing, declaring that this JIFFY JOHN was for exclusive use of “FEMALES ONLY”.

Point of View

Now I don’t know about you, but my obtuse sensibility soared when I saw this hand written sign on the outdoor lavatory. It seemed twisted!

Oh sure the intent of their message was understood. The optics however, were an open door to tongue in cheek thoughts leaving me to wonder if this sign was suggesting an alternate reality where FEMALES ONLY provide JIFFY relief to JOHNS.

JIFFY JOHN Real Estate

The huge number of Vancouver homes and condos for sale seem indigestible. The market isn’t moving as quickly as wished for or at prices desired. Bluntly, the market is in full constipation mode as it is plugged with wait and see attitudes, high prices, political turmoil and upset stock markets. I suspect that at this time, these elements will keep the door shut to a reasonably stable market.

What Sign is On Your Door

A Vancouver Realtors® life work is to assist people buy or sell their homes. In our present market more stories from Sellers are brought forward claiming there fewer buyers viewing, attending open houses or making offers and that the Realtor® is at fault.

As with the FEMALE ONLY sign it’s a matter of optics. There are Buyers scouring the market looking for the best buy. Homes are selling, albeit not as many. The fault many not be your Relator’s®. Rather, it may be that the sign on your door is relaying a price message few buyers are prepared to consider.

Software Relief

Software can do a lot of things. Some can manipulate statistics while others make signs that help untwist a message. As a program, PhotoShop can not help you determine the right thing to do with your Vancouver Real Estate sign.

A change as simple as JIFFY JANE, may help untwist your door’s message. It may also open your door allowing you to find needed relief.

Got a Vancouver Real Estate question? Always happy to answer it. Call or send me an email or twitter me @yattermatters.

Larry

*Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believe to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

School is Back

“Tell Me Johnny, What did you do this summer?”

“Ms. Brown, me and Mom watched the Vancouver Real Estate Market tank.”

August 2008

According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

• Compared to 2007 Sales Declined 53.7 %
• Compared to 2006 Sales Declined 47.7%
• New Listings Declined 1.7% compared to 2007

The good news!

Johnny made it to school on time!

Got a Vancouver Real Estate question? Always happy to answer it. Call or send me an email or twitter me @yattermatters.

Larry

*Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believe to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.
– Charles Mackay

Wolf and Kwan Start Stampede – Maybe!

Last week, the president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said the market has dropped 2.1%. Now David Wolf and Carolyn Kwan, two economists from Merrill Lynch tell us in their Canada Study entitled “Peaked: Canada’s market in depth” (which I have not found on the web), that Western Canada is in a housing slump. The study focused on current prices, affordability and long-term trends. The story made Globe and Mail’s, front page news as it did on National Post and prompted a few segments on CTV

Wolf and Kwan’s conclusions –

“we think we’ve peaked in terms of the housing valuations and we’re in a period of sustained decline going forward. As people buy fewer homes, we’ll also expect them to buy fewer of the things that go into new homes, for example drapes and furniture and things like that”, said Kwan

Highlights:

• Regina, Saskatoon, Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton are all over valued by more than 10%
• Vancouver and Victoria by 34%
• Saskatchewan by 50%
• Sudbury and Montreal also overvalued.
• over building is part of the problem – layoffs may not be far away
• twice as many homes for sale as being sold

We’ve Heard it Before

Economists keep reinforcing that we Canadians and our stringent credit rules have an advantage over the flexible credit plans that allowed people in the U.S. to borrow money to buy homes they could not afford. The Canadian consensus is that the market downturn while not pleasant, will not be as bad as the housing slump being suffered in the U.S. I wonder how you measure that pain threshold?

You Can’t Say You Weren’t Told

Scotia Bank’s Adrienne Warren called it back in May in her piece entitled “Canada’s Housing Market Comes Off The Boil” where she declares that “overall sales volumes in 2008 to total about 15% below last year’s record levels”. Back then when compared to Wolf and Kwan , she was 50% right. Warren may have more to say soon but I doubt it will be pretty.

Stampede? How Not To Get Trampled – My Opinion!

Got a Vancouver Real Estate question? Always happy to answer it. Call or send me an email or twitter me @yattermatters.

Larry

Other thoughts:

Vancouver Real Estate – La-La-La-La-Laaaaaaaaahhhh!

Vancouver Real Estate – West Side Market Update

Vancouver Real Estate – You are Not Alone