I answered the phone to hear a nice female voice speaking. Tentative in her greeting, she asked twice if she was talking to Larry Yatkowsky.

“Yes” I confirmed, “you are speaking with him – how can I help you?”

Listening for Clues

The sound of an infant seeking her attention was in the background as she spoke in an anxious trembling voice of someone about to enter a boxing ring. The verbal punches came in rapid fire.

“I received six pieces of real estate advertisements in the mail today and I’m not happy about this, in fact, I’m very agitated! I think it ridiculous that Realtors® and the real estate industry continue to pump the market with your propaganda! I received six cards today telling me what has sold and listed in my neighbourhood and I wish you would just stop. My husband and I know we will never be able to own a home in this city because of you Realtors®. In that you continue to remind us of this fact with your incessant multiple mailings is beyond annoying. As a couple we earn an average income yet we can’t qualify for a mortgage that will allow us to buy a Vancouver home. All you Realtor’s® do is drive the price up to a point where the average Canadian can’t afford to live here. I have to work and most of what I earn goes to pay day care for the toddlers. It’s very frustrating. We work hard. We don’t spend on excess items. We rent and with rents being high we are unable to save for a down payment. We feel trapped and unable to ever achieve the dream of owning a home in which to raise our family. I just wish you would stop sending these advertisements in the mail – they only remind me of how hopeless it is and makes it unbearable.”

In Awe

I was struck by the palpable frustration and obvious desire to find peace of mind. How does one help in this situation? Providing a total solution would not be possible but perhaps I thought, a no cost band aid is better than nothing at all.

Interjecting the staccato speech, “Please allow me to interrupt and ask if all six pieces of advertising material were the same?”

“No” she replied, “they were from different Realtors® but, all six came in today’s mail.”

Relieved that the postal worker had not bombarded her duplicate copies I asked, “may I offer a solution that I believe will prove helpful?”

Two Band Aids

“My suggestion will not help you buy a home but it may solve the problem of receiving these and other ad-mail reminders. The answer lies in a phone call to Canada Post with the request that they place your address on the ‘do not deliver ad-mail list’. This will put an end to you receiving mail you find disturbing.”

“Further, if I may, I would like to clarify a point. While I empathize with your plight it is necessary to clarify that your belief that Realtors® are the only reason for high home prices is misguided. To be clear, Realtors® do not control the market and while we by the nature of our assigned task, have a part in facilitating the process, market makers we are not. Please understand that when we are asked to sell a home often the first question the seller will pose is ‘how much?’ It is unfortunate and unrealistic to believe that sellers will concern themselves with the issue of whether their asking price falls within the afford ability range of the ‘average Canadian’s income. Sorry – that is a card that I have yet to see on the table!”

She, now somewhat relieved at having the opportunity to vent her frustration, thanked me for the advice as we ended the call amicably. Returning my cell phone to its holster I was left to wonder.

Questions

This lady’s story prompted some questions about income and the ability of the ‘average Canadian’ to afford the purchase of a home. Beyond the price of a Vancouver home which in itself is insurmountable for many people, what else stands in the way of people like this lady that would preclude them from purchasing a home?

According to an April 2010 report by Niels Veldhuis of the Fraser Institute -

In 1961, the average family had to spend 56.5 per cent of their cash income to obtain food, clothing, and housing. In the same year, 33.5 per cent of the family’s income went to governments as tax.

By 1981, the situation had been reversed; governments took 40.8 per cent of the income in the form of taxes, while the family used 40.5 per cent to buy food, clothing and housing.

By 2009, the average family was giving 41.7 per cent of its income to governments for taxes while using 37.1 per cent of its income to buy the necessities of life-food, clothing, and housing.

Report

Round 6

High prices are definitely a deterrent for many as they seek to buy an affordable Vancouver home. However, there are other not so obvious aspects of our personal finances which also impact our ability to purchase a Vancouver home. They are not as obvious as target as a Realtor®.

Veldhuis would have us believe that taxes including the much argued HST, have combined to decrease our net disposable income making it more difficult to achieve our home ownership goal. Those not so obvious insidious little ‘tax hands in our pockets’ might be the real reason our state of well being is altered – a state, where like this nice lady who upon receipt of six Canada Post ad-mail brochures was triggered into a 6th round battle to land a punch on her very obvious neighbourhood Realtor®.

It all stated about a week ago. Not unusual in my business, you get emails requesting information on this or that home for sale. This request came from Mr. Fernando. Now it should be known that Mr. Fernando seemed like a nice guy and while the written English isn’t perfect one accepts that this is after all, Canada.

Chatting

Mr. Fernando was kind enough to give me a phone number. Experience tells me that most people don’t give out phone numbers unless they are serious about meeting an objective. In turn, wanting to be helpful, written instructions on what and where to look on this blog for Homes for Sale were forwarded.

Odd

Mr. Fernando was clear that he preferred email as the communication link. The reason, he claimed, is that his son who ill somewhere in Asia, was not a known entity to his current wife. Assumed is that this would be a pretty large secret in any marriage but, who is judging, this is Canada!

Progress

Mr. Fernando makes use of the Homes for Sale feature and finds a condo in a particular building with a very low price point. At first glance it seems like a bargain in this city. A bargain it is until you find that it is being sold if a buyer agrees to pay the assessment for the building envelope, and is prepared to buy it without flooring and a lot of love.

Please Don’t

In consideration of the budget Mr. Fernando provided as a guideline it was clear that this property was not for him. Considering the next phase of this email conversation it is suspected that there would not be any home that was suitable for Mr. Fernando.

We get Mail

Many of us have been subjected to the ‘Nigerian’ letters of request. Those requests promise great things if only you could help them care for large sums of residual money left by a Father or uncle who voted no and was killed for that decision.

Mr. Fernando has been just a little more polite about his objectives. At best he has spun a somewhat interesting story and at worst he joins the elite Nigerian schemers.

A Tale of Four and Five

Floyd Wickman, a champion of all good things said ‘you have to know, like and trust’ someone before you do business with them. It seems that Mr. Fernando took the Master’s Salesman’s course.

Sharing family details Mr. Fernando has invited into his home and let you ‘know’ something about him – he seems like a nice guy. Why wouldn’t you like him? Playing on empathy he constructs a bond as he shares the story of a son who is ill. How could you not trust him. You get to ‘like’ Mr. Fernando for he seems kind and concerned for his family. He works to build the trust more as he tells you that for some mysterious reason he never told his wife about the conveniently forgotten son.

All good things end and eventually the true Mr. Fernando real story washed up. He is a patient fellow as this took a number of days to unfold but, it is time for the hook. His unwashed true intent you see, is wrapped in steps 4 and 5!

The Real Story

Hi,

Thank you for the email,and sorry for not get back to you in time i was so busy and my wife she is giving me too much stress and my son is sick in asia now and my wife do not want me to buy him the house,can you imagine my wife do not want me to take care of my first son just becouse i do not tell her befor that i have a son anyway every thing is ok now and i want to travel to asia now my son is sick seriously now i have to go bring him down to Canada.

I want you to send me your full info in trust.
1. Company name
2. Your name
3. your company address
4. your bank name
5. Trust account information.

I will pay the house in cash now in my son name,so i will travel to asia by next week so i want to tell my secerary to send you the total amount that i can use to buy the house for my son and include 3,000 so you can use that to pay for nice hotel for me and my son becouse we will be coming to your place from there,so please tell me the amount that you know that i can use to buy the house for my son every thing so i will tell my secerary to send it to you and when i come there with my son there will be money there to ruch the process.

My company name is SONY PICTURES HOME ENTERTAINMENT CANADA,I deal with eletrinic.

Thanks.”

Washed Out

Got dirty money that needs cleaning? Mr. Fernando can tell you how to wash it. You can trust him!

The Daily numbers seem to be a hot topic. The conversations surrounding this sudden change in New Listings and Solds is kind of like a first date. You remember don’t you? It is like that time when you were not sure if you were having fun or you wasted $20 on cheap berry wine.

Talk Talk

A bunch of conversations took place today that added another flavor to the discussion. They left you to wonder if these daily numbers are the first signs of the market change or are they the beginning of a new Vancouver real estate reality?

Left you were to scratch your head as you tried to figure it out!

Used with permission TeamFisher.com Norm Fisher all rights reserved.

Three Wise Men

Circumstance dictated visits to three west side branches of one of the big five. The manager at one branch and loans officers at the others, hovered like wasps ready to sting as they asked the question, “is anybody doing any mortgages”?

Hmmmm?

You have to admit that is a scary question. While a small sample, wonder you must as you ask – is this another indication of something that is a beginning?

Is it Just Me?

Whenever such things happen I always look to ‘flatlanders’ for consensus. They are the bastions of sensibility, the gate keepers of our country’s bread basket. Yes, you guessed it, I chatted with Norm.

Norm Fisher who you see in this picture, is a top of mark Realtor® in Saskatoon. Norm runs a good shop at TeamFisher.com and is tuned into flat land numbers like no one else. I’ve seen this picture of Norm before. The pose Norm assumed profoundly reflects our state of mind as it physically expresses that question we ask ourselves – is this it?

Not Alone

His words however, may be the seal on the deal.

In Saskatoon, “Sales are surprisingly soft given that the “old rules” pass in April. Listings are also starting to grow.” Seems similar to Vancouver’s market state. The ‘old rules’ Norm is referring to are the upcoming changes in mortgage qualification.

Scratch and Win

Perhaps we won’t be left to scratch our heads for long. Those rules may already be striking a pose via the Daily numbers of Vancouver’s market. For some, these lucky numbers could equal that first date!

Have you found the perfect mix of owning a home and retiring comfortably turning into your Canadian nightmare?

Consider the following:

“Jim and Lisa Smith are 38 years old with a marginal tax rate of 39%. They purchased their last home for $500K and required a $300K mortgage at Closing.

Jim and Lisa are concerned that they may not have enough money to guarantee a comfortable retirement. They decide to further accelerate their mortgage strategy with TDMP.

On advice of their Financial Advisor, they borrowed to invest in a tax efficient Mutual Fund which pays monthly distributions of $1,340. These cash distributions are used to make extra monthly payments on the mortgage and are reinvested after paying the interest on the investment loan.

By integrating the Income Fund into the Tax Deductible Mortgage Plan, Jim and Lisa will acclerate their financial benefits and realize:

• $143,243 in Free Tax Refunds
• Mortgage Paid 15.5 Years Sooner
• Investment Portfolio of $828,982

Jim and Lisa will need NO additional cash to achieve these financial results!”

© Courtesy 2009. TDMP.COM

TDMP – Tax Deductible Mortgage Plan

Invited to attend a seminar sponsored by the Rob Regan-Pollack Team of INVIS, the crowd gathered to hear words that may make you reconsider the way you structure your mortgage.

It’s a very complicated package that combines tax, mortgage and investment strategies. Given the perfect combination of ingredients you may end up with your cake and be able to eat it too. Like any fabulous recipe its ingredients are a team of dedicated specialists that includes mortgage advisors, accountants, financial advisors, banks and investment strategists. Be clear in knowing, that without these people in the mix, the odds are your cake will fall flat. Once the ingredients are placed in the bowl and mixed, the process of paying off your mortgage more quickly and accumulating substantial wealth appears to work – at least, that’s what the description accompanying the recipe suggests.

Reservations

Any cook will tell you that while they try their best, they never warranty that the result will be exactly as described in the instructions. They may come close on a somewhat consistent basis, but only because they have given their full attention to every detail and with all that, not every cake will be perfect. The TDMP strategy is not much different. In print, all seems possible and the pictures look great, however, the reality of 15 to 30 years may exact a different result.

Prior to publishing, the better cook book recipes have had the luxury of time testing. This plan has not shared that privilege. While it seems to take into account all contingencies, those very contingencies rely heavily upon all ingredients maintaining a very high level of projected stability for a very long time. Forgoing all else, the winds of time and politic may alone prove the largest detrimental factor. Time equals change and it is that unknown change that makes guarantee elusive. In 15 to 30 year period a lot can happen, often the most serious being something over which you will have little or no control. Unfortunately, should your untried recipe fail, you will not have enough time to bake a new new cake.

Thinking this might be for you? Here are thoughts to consider. Reflect upon premature death, disability, divorce, loss of employment, stock market variances, or the tax department deciding to change it’s ruling.

On paper this plan looks like a perfect dream cake – for some it may be. In particular those with financial ability, a stable career, the capability to understand and willingness to accept risk. For others, it may be burnt cake.

Origins and Discussions of this plan known as – The Smith Manoeuvre

The following links offer some background to the concept and it’s application.

Mr. Smith’s site

Canadian Mortgage Trends

The Star

Canadian Business

*Disclaimer: Information provided by TDMP, INVIS, and the Rob Regan-Pollick Team and the linked sources.

** YatterMatters and the owner of this blog does not endorse nor recommend that the information provided will be accurate or suitable for any or all individuals. It is recommended that you contact the noted parties for further information to determine the feasibility of the TDMP program and it’s application to your financial circumstance. Further, it is recommended that you discuss this plan with independent parties.

***Quotation segment courtesy of M-Link Mortgage Corporation operating as TDMP.COM Copyright 2009. TDMP.COM. All Rights Reserved.

The Meaning of Song

Sometimes as you listen to birds singing you hear odd chirps hinting that more lies within the twitter.

Messages

It’s not much different in human conversation. Unlike birds, we have many more variations that give us hints about the real meaning of what is being articulated. Our body’s movements, posture, the cadence of our voice, the tone used in enunciating a word are indicators. Discerning true meaning is often achieved with attentive listening.

Egg Drops

The other day an interesting song was played by a friendly bird who’s house has been on the market for six months. He had the night before received his first offer.

Always curious, the question is asked: “Was the offer acceptable?” Responding, the real reason this bird’s house has not sold is found in the buried lyrics that clarify this bird’s misguided rationale.

“Yes, it was a serious offer but we are expecting others”. In retrospect, “we should have kept it on the market in December – it was busier then.”said the bird.

A-Ha Moment

Reflect if you will, that during this six month mandate, Vancouver’s real estate market experienced a spirallying downward market now claiming a YOY 57% drop in unit sales. Yet, this bird’s first “serious” offer is declined on the premise that ‘others are on the horizon.’

Poor bird!

“Expecting others” is the A-Ha answer to the no sale problem. Flying in the face of aged wisdom this bird has forgotten the lesson handed down from his brothers – ‘a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.”

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

I’m always happy to answer your Vancouver Real Estate question. Call or send me an email Twitter or Skype me at YatterMatters.

Larry

*Disclaimer: Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believed to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

CC Pumbaa

For the past while world news has generated a mind altering state for many people. During visits to Vancouver homes for sale for pre-inspection or while working with buyers, encountered is a malaise of despair.

Doubt

The uncertainty of our time has crept into our lives. The worry over future events has stripped the joy from our lives. It seems that we are participants in a robbery where everyone is holding their hands high. It seemed sadly ironic for that which is being robbed nothing more than stuff.

The real materials of life, family, friends, health, relationships, spirituality and yes, even the air we breathe and the water we drink are still in place.

Laughter

An oft quoted statement is that laughter is the best medicine. While the following may not solve all your problems today, it might just put a smile on your face and help you think of sunnier days.

Canadian Humor, Courtesy of Jeff Foxworthy

If your local Dairy Queen is closed from
September through May,
You may live in Canada .

If someone in a Home Depot store
Offers you assistance and they don’t work there,
You may live in Canada .

If you’ve worn shorts and a parka at the same time,
You may live in Canada .

If you’ve had a lengthy telephone conversation
With someone who dialed a wrong number,
You may live in Canada .

If ‘Vacation’ means going anywhere
South of Detroit for the weekend,
You may live in Canada .

If you measure distance in hours,
You may live in Canada .

If you know several people
Who have hit a deer more than once,
You may live in Canada .

If you have switched from ‘heat’ to ‘A/C’
In the same day and back again,
You may live in Canada .

If you can drive 90 km/hr through 2 feet of snow
During a raging blizzard without flinching,
You may live in Canada .

If you install security lights on your house and garage,
But leave both unlocked,
You may live in Canada .

If you carry jumpers in your car
And your wife knows how to use them,
You may live in Canada .

If you design your kid’s Halloween costume
To fit over a snowsuit,
You may live in Canada .

If the speed limit on the highway is 80 km —
You’re going 90 and everybody is passing you,
You may live in Canada .

If driving is better in the winter
Because the potholes are filled with snow,
You may live in Canada .

If you know all 4 seasons:
Almost winter, winter, still winter,
And road construction,
You may live in Canada .

If you have more miles
On your snow blower than your car,
You may live in Canada .

If you find 2 degrees ‘a little chilly’,
You may live in Canada .

If you actually understand these jokes,
And forward them to all
Your Canadian friends & others,
You definitely live in Canada

One More

My personal favorite!

If you think it’s a good time to buy or sell Vancouver Real Estate.
You live in Canada.

Let’s have some fun and give Foxworthy a run for his money Canadian style.

Tell us what you think defines a Canadian.

.

*** Keep in mind that this is a kiddies channel. ***

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

I’m always happy to answer your Vancouver Real Estate question? Call or send me an email Twitter or Skype me at YatterMatters.

Larry

Flickr John/Jane

when a sign on a door transmits the wrong message.

JIFFY JOHN

It wasn’t hard to find this twisted message gem. Facing directly to the sidewalk, it stared at me in original hand writing, declaring that this JIFFY JOHN was for exclusive use of “FEMALES ONLY”.

Point of View

Now I don’t know about you, but my obtuse sensibility soared when I saw this hand written sign on the outdoor lavatory. It seemed twisted!

Oh sure the intent of their message was understood. The optics however, were an open door to tongue in cheek thoughts leaving me to wonder if this sign was suggesting an alternate reality where FEMALES ONLY provide JIFFY relief to JOHNS.

JIFFY JOHN Real Estate

The huge number of Vancouver homes and condos for sale seem indigestible. The market isn’t moving as quickly as wished for or at prices desired. Bluntly, the market is in full constipation mode as it is plugged with wait and see attitudes, high prices, political turmoil and upset stock markets. I suspect that at this time, these elements will keep the door shut to a reasonably stable market.

What Sign is On Your Door

A Vancouver Realtors® life work is to assist people buy or sell their homes. In our present market more stories from Sellers are brought forward claiming there fewer buyers viewing, attending open houses or making offers and that the Realtor® is at fault.

As with the FEMALE ONLY sign it’s a matter of optics. There are Buyers scouring the market looking for the best buy. Homes are selling, albeit not as many. The fault many not be your Relator’s®. Rather, it may be that the sign on your door is relaying a price message few buyers are prepared to consider.

Software Relief

Software can do a lot of things. Some can manipulate statistics while others make signs that help untwist a message. As a program, PhotoShop can not help you determine the right thing to do with your Vancouver Real Estate sign.

A change as simple as JIFFY JANE, may help untwist your door’s message. It may also open your door allowing you to find needed relief.

Got a Vancouver Real Estate question? Always happy to answer it. Call or send me an email or twitter me @yattermatters.

Larry

*Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believe to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

REWeekly

HoneyDo List

Dunbar Neighborhood

Each summer there is a project around my place. It involves getting rid of the stuff that hasn’t been used in the last year. You know what I’m talking about! It’s all those boxes of stuff which, important the day they came home, never achieved more than their arrival. Stuff!

This time it was found. This singular box that had rested quietly hiding for 20 years. Through the cold and damp rainy Kitsilano winters it survived in a dark corner away from seeking eyes, but not this time!

The Mistress of the HoneyDo List found it. Now duly recorded on the list, it was to be removed. My task, to sweep away the cobwebs and dust so that I might open this cardboard time capsule and determine what mysterious treasures lay inside.

Enduring Purpose

Stuff in a cardboard box rarely is attributed the importance of a treasure chest. Yet, in this box existed a historical snapshot of Vancouver Real Estate. Crumpled and compressed, the protective paper balls served a most enduring purpose. It acted as insulation for precious nothings that had exceeded their “past due date”. Those nothings the paper guarded, were soon passed to others who excitedly began a new cycle breathing life into stuff discarded. I kept the paper.

Treasure Chest

MacKenzie Heights

Fond memories were relived as brittle paper unraveled to display the bits of ‘necessary’ items, things once important. The golden treasure, was the crumpled mass of newsprint. It was the Vancouver Real Estate Weekly, published Friday July 15, 1988.

Once Upon a Time

You could buy high quality homes on the west side of Vancouver in the Mackenzie and Dunbar neighborhoods for less than the price of today’s average condo.

20 Years

I suspect these homes have served one or several families during their time having provided as many Vancouver Real Estate treasures as were found in the dusty old box.

Got a Vancouver Real Estate question? Always happy to answer it. Call or send me an email or twitter me @yattermatters.

Larry

*Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believe to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Courtesy Mark Twain Quotes

Recently the Vancouver Real Estate market has been subject to the opinions of many experts. Achieving some fame, is the latest discussion paper from the Sauder Business School at UBC.

Things Affect Us

Academics are held in esteem. To many, they represent the thinkers of our world and as such they lead the formulation of actions we take and the directions we follow. Their value lies in the ideals that uphold the responsibility to deliver truths founded in dedicated and rigorous research and analysis of things that affect us.

By Candle Light We Find Our Way

By its nature, esteem at times, pre-empts questioning the value of the proposer’s proposition value. As with all propositions a candle must be brought forward to cast light on that higher ground. The test resides in the expected knowledge within which, lies the goal of improving our passage through life. Yet, with all the internal peer road blocks to publication, not all of what is delivered from this group meets that objective.

The candle’s light must not only illuminate the proposition but must also allow us to see who it is that is making the proposal.

Who Is

According to Tsur Somerviglle’s web page

Dr. Tsur Somerville is Director of the UBC Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate, Associate Professor of Strategy & Business Economics, and holder of the Real Estate Foundation Professorship in Real Estate Finance at the Sauder School of Business at the University of British Columbia.

His current research interest focuses on real estate development and housing markets. Among the areas of active interest are the role of land assembly in urban redevelopment, the effects of housing quality and market uncertainty on real estate markets, real estate auctions and house pricing, and the economics of urban sprawl and sustainability.

The Discussion

This is the discussion that has created a lot of fuss in the Canadian Real Estate market place.

Are Canadian Housing Markets Overpriced

Some Reactions

• Financial Post
• CBC
• Vancouver Sun
• UBC Public Affairs
• Edmonton Journal

Let’s Assume

Page three, paragraph two of Somerville’s paper includes a disclaimer which, in degrees, casts light on that proposition he puts forward. He generously writes of his methodology stating that “As with all economic analysis, this approach demands a large number of assumptions and conditions.”

Chicken Little

Fair enough!

Chicken Little thought the sky was falling!

Glib Counterpoint

Somerville’s credentials tell us he is a smart man and having read his 26 page document of which five and more are graphs to support the rationale derived from the research, I was almost ready to buy in to the discussion’s premise. A skeptic might however, use a counterpoint by referring to Mark Twain’s note that “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”

In July of 2005, a Vancouver Sun reporter noted that Somerville is “reluctant to make exact predictions about when Vancouver’s hot housing market might begin to cool, he can’t help himself from making just one.”

Reticent to withhold, Somerville’s proposes to the reporter that “You’ll know when the market has hit its peak on the day that I buy a house.”

Feeling generous, I suspect Somerville’s tongue was firmly in cheek when he made that somewhat glib statement.

Valid

Is Somerville’s discussion in fact Chicken Little shouting? Does his paper propose a truth of near future reality or is it to become as valid as Chicken Little’s cry and to be relegated to coffee conversation?

Will The Moons Align

If you are from Missouri, then you like to be shown things. Of course, by then, assuming Somerville’s proposition, it will be too late for you to realize greater value from your home. Wait we must for the discussion is a proposition for the future based on past statistics with assumptions and conditions. Encompassed are many other dynamics that must bring the moons together to achieve the speculative result. So many possibilities suggest that your guess, which might be based on nothing more than a gut feeling or watching the moon, may be as valid as his proposition.

Impulsive Lemmings

The influence of Somerville’s paper may serve no further purpose than to spawn studies on crowd impluse. At question is whether the crowd buys into accepting his version of the market’s future. Assumption is that we might well expect events that reflect the instinctual pattern of lemmings? We must wait to see if the crowd under such influence jumps off the cliff with drastic price reductions?

Prediction

Regardless of the outcome one thing that is predictable. There will be much fodder for Yatter that Matters.

Got a Vancouver Real Estate question? Always happy to answer it. Call or send me an email or twitter me @yattermatters.

Larry

*Statistics Courtesy REBGV. While believe to be accurate they are not guaranteed.
**Numbers provided may vary as they are dynamically posted by the REBGV.

Because You Asked

There is some discussion on various blogs about town that implied a call to question the statistical numbers I post on this blog. It’s kind of a pre-emptive hanging without hearing the facts. More directly referred to as “shoot first and ask questions later”. Such is the swarm of the blogosphere. To settle the wandering minds, clear away the suspicious imaginings of smoke and mirrors and to cut the rope herein for the purpose of clarity, is my methodology.

Where Do The Numbers Come From?

The process involves a number of steps using MLS data provided by our local system operated by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. It is understood that there are a number of programs that distill specific data from the board’s data set.

Time Sensitive

All the programs available to Realtors® suffer a single issue that accounts for the majority of differences from the time I post information to the time another blogger posts their compilation. It is assumed that each Realtor® uses a similar methodology in constructing their compilation, but that is too, is subject to time constraints and personal objectives.

Dynamic

Above all, it must be clearly understood that data provided to Realtors® is dynamic. It changes by the minute. The changes result from amongst other things, the time and process taken to transcribe hard copy information submitted to the board by individual Realtors®, to the time it is entered as data and the time in which that data is retrieved. It is entirely possible that I would request a data set at 8 a.m., begin to compile my graph and generate a post only to find that at 11 a.m. my data set is now out of sync. Some Realtors® wait till the evening hours to compile their information in the belief (I have no contrary opinion), that the data sets will be static during that time period. It’s a personal choice and I say, good for them! My choice, is to spend time with my family and enjoy the few uninterrupted moments we have together.

No Smoke Here

Fig 1. Tablular search MLxchange.

The majority of data I record is a result of the following methodology. An area or sub-area and property type is selected resulting in a data set being generated. Presented will be the number of listings, sold and expired properties. Price reductions are indicated by down arrows and price increases are indicated by up arrows. Clicking on the individual listing will then show the price difference or in my case, I have set the columns to show that change. (fig 1)

Manual Intervention

The program does not calculate the total number of price increases or decreases. These must be manually added by flipping sequentially from page to page, recording the total reductions or increases shown on the page and are tabulated and totaled.(Fig. 1)

No Mirrors Too – Quick Stats

Part of this program has a stats feature that generates the numbers I use. A simple click and the total number of listings, solds, and expireds are shown. These include the High, Low, Average and Median prices plus days on market. The other information in this format such as the number of bedrooms, is strictly high and low and of little use statistically. (fig 2)

Fig.2 Quick Stats search MLxchange

Recording

The numbers shown in the quick stats numbers (fig.2), 1139 listings, 51 expired, 52 sold and the the average sale price are manually transposed to generate a graph. The high,low and average prices are separately recorded within the post for reference.

Choices

There are a number of other statistical formats available. These involve computer computations that are delivered from one server to another. An example would be all the boards submitting their totals to the Canadian Real Estate Association for their computations.

In Vancouver, MLxchange is the core data set from which all the others derive their information. As before they are subject to time’s vagaries.

Slips and Changes

Nobody is perfect and keyboard entry is subject to errors. Although glaring errors are noted and reported, as was the case of an east side condo having been recorded as a sale of $1,560,000 when in fact it was sold for $156,000 to be fair, the majority of the work is highly accurate and quite reliable.

The key to understanding all of this is entrenched in the standard disclaimer that says while data provided is believed to be accurate it is not guaranteed. At any given moment it changes and your understanding of the change will vary accordingly.

Others

I’m certain that other Realtors® look at numbers and see a different picture. As noted, the numbers change by the minute and I accept that as a reality of our business. A statistical picture is a representation of a moment in Vancouver’s real estate. Because it is never stagnant the 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. graphs will differ. However, both are accurate at that moment.

Communication

In this wonderful world of blogs some people are quick to judge without knowledge. It’s not that I’m unavailable, unreachable or hiding. Phone, email contact or even a comment might have provided answers to the question in advance. With all of our tech capabilities and enlightenment there remains amongst us, those who still hang the man first and ask questions later.

My take on all of this is that it’s just another day in Vancouver Real Estate. :>)

Got a Vancouver Real Estate question? Always happy to answer it. Call or send me an email or twitter me @yattermatters.

Larry

*If statistics are presented in this post the numbers are Courtesy of REBGV. While they are believed to be accurate, they are not guaranteed.
**Statistical numbers are dynamic and may vary.